The Skidding Bears face the NFC North-leading Packers in a Sunday Night Football showdown. Many questions surround this game, making the line difficult for some bettors to decide on. Here, I give you my three prop bets to consider and why you should consider them.
A poor record has me confident in a bounce-back this week. Every rough stretch has to end at some point, and I think these three lines are great bets tonight.
David Montgomery Over 52.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
The Bears running back is returning tonight after missing last week’s game against the Vikings. He has gone over 52.5 rushing yards in just four of nine games this season, but this is all about the matchup.
The Packers’ defense tends to give opposing running backs big holes to run through and struggles to meet them in the gaps. Last week, struggling rookie Jonathan Taylor ran for 90 yards against this defense.
Green Bay has benefited from their scorching start to the season, which helps them rank 13th in the league in opponent rushing yards. Those games made opponents play from behind early, limiting the run game.
In four of their last six, opponents have run for at least 109 yards. The Bears’ lack of a running back two makes Montgomery an appealing prop bet tonight. Expect Montgomery to eclipse this number, and I expect him to be closer to the 100-yard marker than the 50-yard marker.
Aaron Rodgers Passing Touchdowns Over 1.5 (-166)
You have to pay up for this bet, but for good reason. Rodgers has passed for two touchdowns or more in every game this season except the Packers dismal showing against the Bucs in week six.
Rodgers is familiar with this Bears team, and after an overtime loss last week, he’s going to come out looking to get his team back on the right track. The Bears have corners that tend to allow the big play, and that’s another reason I love Rodgers over 1.5 passing touchdowns.
The Bears have allowed 12 passing touchdowns this year against just six rushing touchdowns. I don’t see them shutting down this Packers offense enough to limit Rodgers to just one touchdown through the air.
Allen Robinson Under 66.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Robinson is the Bears’ top receiver by a wide margin, and returning starting quarterback Mitch Trubisky has shown a tendency to target Robinson heavily. That may not matter against this Packers defense as Jaire Alexander has been one of the best cover corners this season.
Even if Robinson sees a high target share, Alexander will keep everything underneath and prevent any of the deep balls needed to go over 66.5 yards. It’s more likely Robinson’s target share all together is limited, as has been the case for number one receivers facing Alexander this season.