Player prop bets are a sneaky fun way to make NFL games even more interesting than they already are. There’s nothing like sweating a random game that you have no rooting interest in, other than praying that the offense hands the ball off 3 straight times to hit your rushing prop. Here, we’re going to take a look at a team prop as well as a few player props for the weekend and try to find some solid value.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of 10/1. We are not financial advisors. Gamble at your own risk.
New York Jets Team Total Points UNDER 18.5 (-115)
The Jets are in a tough spot offensively. They’re averaging 6.67 points per game as an offense, and since week one, they’ve scored six total points. Tennessee’s defensive PPG allowed is a little misleading, coming in at 28 points per game. Since halftime of their Week Two game in Seattle, the Titans defense has only allowed two TDs, one of which was a completely blown coverage. The Titans defense has been at least serviceable, which is much more than someone can say about the NYJ offense. I don’t see NYJ getting near this total, let alone going over it.
TEN QB Ryan Tannehill OVER 13.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Staying in the same game, flipping our attention the other direction. Tannehill’s rushing yardage total coming in under 20 is astounding to me, considering his lowest total for the year came in Week One at 17 yards. With WR’s Julio Jones and AJ Brown both questionable, I’d expect TEN to rely heavily on the play-action boot game to create easy looks for Tannehill, which is where he tends to pick up a majority of his rushing yards. I’d say this one is playable up to the 25.5 range, but it won’t get that high.
BAL QB Lamar Jackson OVER 1.5 Passing TDs (+155)
The Ravens are coming off of a near trap game in Detroit last week, in which Marquis Brown dropped THREE passes that were going to be touchdowns. The Ravens are finding ways to get open receivers right now, and I’m not banking on more drops. At +155 odds, it’s by no means a lock, but the value is just tremendous.
SEA RB Chris Carson OVER 64.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Through three weeks, the 49ers have allowed over 100 yards rushing in each of their games so far. Factor that in with Pete Carrol’s affinity for running the football, and Carson is in line for a monster day. With Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf both showing up on the injury report, Seattle will lean more on their running game, and Carson is going to be the beneficiary of that.
LAC RB Austin Ekeler Rushing + Receiving Yards OVER 96.5(-115)
The Raider has shown through three weeks that they’re pretty susceptible to running backs, ranking 17th in most PPR fantasy leagues. I know, fantasy football and gambling don’t often translate well, but in the case of Ekeler and the Raiders, it will. LVR has allowed 142, 82, and 107 total yards to running backs, none of them on the same level as Ekeler. I also really like Ekeler over 14.5 rushing attempts at +105, but not enough to put a lot on it.
MIN WR Justin Jefferson OVER 6.5 Receptions (+105)
One final plus odds prop for the week, and this is one of my favorites. Jefferson’s had nine, ten, and 11 targets through three weeks, for five, six, and nine catches. Jefferson’s targets are trending upward, while running mate Adam Thielen’s are trending downward. With that, I see no reason that trend would change. I expect Jefferson to come in around 10-12 targets again and would be completely shocked if he doesn’t come away with seven of them.
You’ve got five-player props, two of them at plus odds, and one team prop for the week. There are plenty more that I like out there, these are just the ones that have stuck out most to me so far based on their values. Trail them or not, give me a shout on Twitter (j_noah53), let me know what you think, and what props you’re on for the week!