Week 10 of the NFL season gets started with a great match-up. The Colts and Titans face off in a battle to put themselves in the top spot in the AFC South entering the seasons’ final stretch. This game will likely have massive implications on the AFC playoff picture down the road. Adding to the excitement, it’s a game between two solid, strong football teams.
Before kickoff, it’s always important to dive into the long list of prop bets available for such a prime time match-up. Here, I’m giving you my three favorite prop bets for Thursday Night Football and telling you why I like them. While a record will be kept from game to game with these plays, I encourage you to not simply copy the plays.
Instead, I recommend forming your own opinion based on how you feel, what you know, and what you’ve learned from my points. I’m here to help create ideas and give you something to consider. You don’t need to bet big, or even bet at all. If that’s your thing, though, join me for a rundown of my favorite prop bets for Week 10’s TNF showdown.
All bets are from the Fanduel Sportsbook.
Jonathan Taylor Under 42.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Prop bet number one features Colts rookie running-back, Jonathan Taylor. Taylor has surpassed the 42.5 rushing yards mark in 5 of 8 games, with all five coming in a five-game stretch. He enters this game coming off back to back games under 42.5 yards, though, registering 22 yards in Week 8 and 27 yards last week.
I like this under due to a few factors. First, I expect the Titans to pull out to an early lead, forcing the Colts to play from behind. When that becomes the case, Nyheim Hines will start chipping into Taylor’s snaps. Hines leads the Colts with 28 receptions this season.
Reason number two, Taylor had a career-low six rushing attempts last week. He was faded out of the offense after a fumble lost, the first of his career. While normally I wouldn’t put much stock into that carrying over, Hines and Jordan Wilkins played good in his place. Don’t be surprised if Taylor sees another game in which the backfield snaps are well distributed.
Ryan Tannehill Over 10.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Ryan Tannehill has been exactly what the Titans hoped when they signed him to a big contract in the off-season. The Colts defense is legit, currently tied with the Bucs in allowing the fewest yards per rushing attempts to opponents (3.3). They are going to make Derrick Henry’s life difficult in this one.
Their pass defense is also very strong, having allowed the third-fewest yards through the air so far this season. Tannehill still possesses good mobility and is always willing to do whatever it takes to move the chains. When forced into passing situations, the Colts are going to leave no one open on occasion. I expect Tannehill to use his legs a few times to keep drives going, and by doing so, surpassing the 10.5 rushing yards mark.
Jonnu Smith Over 2.5 Receptions (-166)
Finally, my favorite prop bets for this Thursday Night game. As you can see, there’s some extra juice required to take Smith over 2.5 receptions. I’m willing to do so because I have him going over as my lock of the night.
This line is set low because of Smith’s recent lack of production, failing to haul in more than two passes in four straight games. Before that, he had brought in at least four receptions in each of the Titans’ first four games.
So, why will he bounce back tonight? Simply put: His team needs him too, and the match-up is there to be exploited. Last week, the Colts allowed two Ravens tight ends to catch at least three passes. Mark Andrews caught three, while Nick Boyle added four. The week prior, T.J. Hockenson tallied 7 receptions against this Colts defense.
Outside of a one-game outlier against the non-tight end reliant Bengals, the trend goes back even further. Expect Jonnu Smith to bounce back and end his recent cold streak. I’m confident in a five reception game in this one, so Over 2.5 was an easy lock for myself.