The PGA Tour heads back to Las Vegas this week and not the normal stop for the CJ Cup. The event is being played at the Shadow Creek Golf Course instead of Nine Bridges in South Korea. This is the same course that the Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson matchup took place. Other than that there hasn’t been a PGA event played at the course.
Shadow Creek is a Par 72 course over 7500 yards. It is a Tom Fazio design and has bent grass greens. The length of the course has me leaning bombers early. The past few winners of this event have been Justin Thomas, twice, and Brooks Koepka. They both are in the field again this week.
The field is not the normal 140 plus player event. There are 78 players in the field and now two less because Dustin Johnson and Tony Finau have withdrawn due to COVID. The field is still loaded with talent other than Thomas and Koepka too. Including, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Mathew Wolff, and Patrick Cantlay.
Jon Rahm: $11,300
Rahm is the highest-priced golfer in the field and it is tough to argue against that. If I am going to lean bombers in this tournament, he seems like a good one to lean on. He hasn’t lost strokes OTT since 08/25/2019. He has five straight top 25’s, including a 1st, 4th, and 6th in there. The only thing that could get me away from him at the high end is if Justin Thomas comes in with some crazy low ownership, which he won’t.
Mid Range Play(s):
Patrick Cantlay: $9,800
Cantlay was a play for me last week and was tied for the lead going into Sunday. He had a terrible Sunday and did not win. He gained minimally for the tournament OTT and on APP and put really well. He prefers bent grass which this is. If he can get his ball-striking back to what it usually is and keep the hot putter he could find himself at the top of the leaderboard again this week.
Sungjae Im: $8,700
After a pretty rough stretch for Im he seems to have found the ball striking once again. He has gained in three straight OTT and four straight on APP. Bent is not his preferred putting surface, but I am going to lean on his ball striking. I also think he is easily the best place at his price point which is reflected in his own right now. He may come in around 17%, but that isn’t enough to get me off him this week.
Joaquin Niemann: $7,500
Niemann has four straight top 25’s and has gained OTT in every single one of those events. Now, in that time he has struggled with his APP, but I think Niemann has too much upside at this price point not be a great play. He also prefers bentgrass putting surfaces; he isn’t a great putter, so the little bump may prove useful in the long run.
Low End Play(s):
Bubba Watson: $7,300
My favorite play on the entire slate, Watson comes in on absolute fire with his ball-striking. He has gained OTT and APP in SEVEN straight events. He is just hitting the heck out of the ball right now. On the other side, though, is his putting, which has been pitiful.
If Sergio Garcia has taught us anything, it is that as long as the ball striking is good, the putting could flip at any time and get the W. That is exactly what we are looking for from Bubba this week.
Jason Kokrak: $7,000
Kokrak is another one that is coming in striking the ball extremely well. He is one of the longest hitters on tour as well, but his biggest struggles happen around and on the green. He just needs to hit every green and sink a few putts and he will easily pay off his price tag.
He missed the cut at the Shriners but had four straight top 20s before that. This course seems like a good fit for him to get back on track.
Brooks Koepka- I am just going to wait and see how he looks coming back from the knee injury.
Keep an eye on:
Matthew Wolff- he is coming off a loss in the playoffs and could get lost at his price point this week. I want to play him but right now he is coming in at over 20% ownership. If that drops, he may be in play for me.
Good luck everyone and let’s hit some green screens!