Nov
03
2020

Edge Factor: Houston Open DFS

The PGA tour is ramping up to its main event, The Masters in two weeks’ time, but are making a pit stop in Houston to get ready for it. This year the Houston Open is being played at a new course than it has been played in previous years, as they move to Memorial Park Golf Course.

Memorial Park Golf Course is a 7,400 yard, Par 72, Bermuda green golf course. Tom Doak finished his redesign in 2019 and brought in none other than Brooks Koepka in to consult him on it.

Koepka just so happens to be in the field this week as well. The course is unique in the sense that it has five par 5’s and five par 3’s. Since this event is being played here for the first time, there isn’t a ton known of what it is going to take to get the victory.

Since there are so many par 5’s, I am going to lean a little more towards the longer hitters who may be able to at these courses in two shots. Other than that I am going to lean, like I always do, on ball striking. This field is stronger than anticipated with the likes of Dustin Johnson sitting at the top of the pricing board, but Tony Finau, Brooks Koepka, Tyrell Hatton, Hideki Matsuyama, Viktor Hovland, and Scottie Scheffler are also all in the field.

High-End Play(s):

Tony Finau: $10,900

Finau is the 2nd highest priced player in the field. He is 600 cheaper than Johnson, so you get a discount there, which is nice. He also has been playing outstanding. He has four straight top 20s with two top 10s in that time as well. He has also gained OTT and on APP in two straight events. He is first in the field in the last six months on strokes gained par 5’s as well. Finau has the rep of not winning, but he is playing well enough to do just that right now.

Mid Range Play(s):

Russell Henley: $9,400

Henley’s ball-striking has been absolute fire since the re-start. He hasn’t lost on APP since June of this year. He has back to back top 5’s. His preferred putting surface is Bermuda. Henley is setting up to be a great play. If people are looking at models, they are going to see the exact same thing, so keeping an eye on his ownership will be key.

Doc Redman: $8,800

I really liked Redman last week and he was my pick to win it. He was in the final grouping on Sunday, but just couldn’t get anything going. There wasn’t a shot tracker last week so we don’t know the exact numbers, but he did gain 11.4 strokes total on the tourney on his way to his fourth-place finish. Redman is known for his ball-striking and is third in this field in the last 36 rounds for that strokes gained metric. He should be able to find himself in the mix again if he keeps striking it well.

Denny McCarthy: $7,900

McCarthy is one of the best putters on tour and that usually carries him in tournaments. As of late, however, he has been striking the ball much better. Again, there was not shot tracker for this past event, but he did finish fourth in Bermuda. It is his second top 10 finish in the last three events. At Sanderson Farms he gained 2.7 ball striking. If he can strike that ball at all like that again, with his putting, he can find himself in the top 10 once again.

Low End Play(s):

Scott Piercy: $7,200

He backed up his 19th place finish at Shriners with a 14th place finish at Bermuda. Piercy is known for his ball-striking and is usually held back by his putting. He has only gained in Putting one time since March. However, he hasn’t lost strokes OTT in the last four measurable events. He also gained on APP in his last two measurable events including 7.1 at the Shriners.

Scott Stallings: $6,900

At his price point, he may go extremely under looked. Adam Schenk and Ollie Schneiderjans are only 200 dollars more than him and Schenk has made 11 straight cuts and Ollie just finished 3rd in Bermuda. Stallings, however, has gained on APP in his last three measurable events, OTT in his last two measurable events, and finished 26th in Bermuda. His last three finishes are 6th, missed cut, and 26th. So there is a little inconsistency there, but that is what you are going get with players at his price.

Favorite Play:

Scott Piercy

Fade:

Dustin Johnson – DJ could literally walk away with this tournament, but I am going to face him at his price and hope he has his eyes set on Augusta.

Keep an eye on:

Keith Mitchell – he made his first cut in three events in Bermuda. He also had positive strokes gained. He is only $6,200 dollars. He likes Bermuda grass and is 19th in the field OTT in the last 36 rounds.

Winner:

Tony Finau

Good luck everyone and let’s hit some green screens!