Oct
08
2020

Edge Factor: NFL Week 5 DFS

The plays I will discuss are only for the main slate on Draftkings.

There is a lot of uncertainty floating around week five of the NFL. There have been numerous positive COVID-19 tests on numerous teams. The Titans also look like they broke protocol and will have some sort of punishment coming down on them from Roger Goodell and the NFL. You are going to want to keep a close on these situations because this week could end up getting messy. However, we move forward as if the week will go off without a hitch.

Running back:

James Robinson ($6700)
Robinson faces off against the Houston Texans this week who are fresh off firing head coach, GM, and play-caller, Bill O’Brien. With a 32.9% opportunity share (carries + targets), he is in the top 12 for running backs in this volume metric. He is going to get touches. He has no one to compete with for goal-line work either. In last week’s game, he had 21 touches but was unable to find the end zone. If he continues to get that much volume if he can sneak into the end zone he could be a smash play.

Damien Harris ($4300)
The Patriots lost to the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday night of week four, but Damien Harris had a solid showing in his first game off IR. He had 17 carries for 100 yards. There are very few pay down options this week, but Harris seems to be a viable one.

There are concerns here though. He is not going to get much work in the passing game because of James White and well, he is a Patriots running back. Harris will only be an option if you’re looking to save some money and play a contrarian lineup. I think paying up for running backs is usually a better route to go, however.

Wide Receiver:

Tyreek Hill ($6900)
Hill is underpriced. He is facing a Raiders team this week who was torched by the Buffalo Bills this past weekend and is still without starting corner Damon Arnette. He comes in garnering 52.2% of the Chiefs’ air yards + targets, which is the best of any pass catcher on the offense. Hill is a slate breaker. With the deep opportunities, he gets he has the chance to completely wreck the slate on any given week. The Chiefs have had their way with the Raiders over the past few years and I don’t see that changing this week.

Darius Slayton ($4800)
Another pay down option this week and Slayton has a great matchup. He faces off with the Cowboys who have given up the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers this year. While the production was not there last week against the Rams, the opportunities were. Slayton still received seven targets in their loss. This is another game they are likely to be down in, which should increase the passing volume of the Giants offense and hopefully increase Slayton’s targets.

Quarterbacks:

Patrick Mahomes ($7700)
For all the reasons I like Tyreek Hill, I like Patrick Mahomes. He is probably coming off one of his worst games as a pro and he still threw for two touchdowns, 240 yards, and added almost 30 on the ground. The Raiders defense is not the Patriots defense, shocking, I know. This seems to be a smash spot for Kansas City and Mahomes won’t have two games in a row like that; I expect a big bounce back this week.

Daniel Jones ($5400)
This is either the dumbest or smartest thing I’ve ever thought. The Cowboys defense is giving up points in bunches. Jones hasn’t been good so far this year, but this is the worst opponent they will have faced to date.

Also, Jones has a floor baked in with his rushing yards. He has 18 attempts for 137 yards on the season which is good for almost 35 yards a game. Your QB starting at 3.5 points is a huge bonus. Limiting his turnover some and taking advantage of this week Cowboys defense could put jones in a great spot to pay off his price tag this week.

Tight Ends:

Eric Ebron ($4000):
Tight end is going to be a very difficult one to figure out this week. I generally like to use a tight end as a place to save salary, but there doesn’t seem like there is an abundance of options to do that this week. Ebron comes in at 4000 even and gets a nice matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles are giving up the 3rd most fantasy points to tight ends on the year. He is also coming off a seven target and one touchdown game. If he can produce anything remotely the same this week, he will be a great play.

Drew Sample ($3700):
Sample doesn’t have the best matchups going against a tough Ravens team, but he is still getting targets since CJ Uzomah went down with an injury. He had another five last week. This game should be a high passing volume game for the Bengals who figure to be trailing most of the way, as they are currently almost a two-touchdown dog.

The Bengals need to be able to protect Burrow long enough for him to get off some passes, but with the Ravens heavy blitz defense, dump-offs to Sample may be a viable option for them.

Defense/Special Teams:

Giants ($2200):
This is a complete punt on the defensive side. The Giants are top 10 in pressure rate this year in the NFL. The Cowboys are a high passing volume offense. Hopefully, this can lead to some sacks and turnovers. If you are looking to save it is not a terrible option.

Steelers ($3800):
The Steelers get pressure more than anyone in the NFL. They play the Eagles this week who are decimated with injuries. Carson Wentz also has 11 turnovers already on the year. This could be a great recipe for sacks and turnovers. If you are lucky maybe even a defensive touchdown.