Oct
22
2020

Edge Factor: NFL Week 7 DFS

There are some massive game totals this week; the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals are all the way up to a 56 point total and it is going to be hard to get away from that game as a stacking option in DFS this week. The Seahawks defense has gotten tore up all year so far and get DeAndre Hopkins and Kyler Murray this week who have combined for a ton of fantasy points this year. Murray is actually the leading fantasy quarterback so far this year.

The Green Bay Packers and Houston Texans have a 57 point total and five more games are in the ’50s! There are going to be a lot of points scored this week, the key is getting the right combos. Let’s take a look at a few of my favorite plays.

Running back:

Aaron Jones ($7200)
Jones faces off with the Houston Texans this week who have given up the 2nd most fantasy points to running backs on the year. The Packers also have over a 30 point implied total for a team. If they are going to score points, a lot of the work is going to go through him; he also has scored a touchdown in every single game. He gets so much volume and the price point is fair, it seems like a smash play this week.

Justin Jackson ($4900)
Austin Ekeler’s injury has really opened up the Chargers backfield. Joshua Kelley will continue to get work, but after last week it seems they are really leaning towards Jackson as the lead guy. He had 20 touches last week against the Saints. He has another favorable matchup this week against the Jaguars who have given up the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs on the year. He is a huge salary saver if you are looking to spend up in other places.

Wide Receiver:

DeAndre Hopkins ($8200)
Hopkins is the most expensive WR on the slate, but it is really hard to get away from him with his matchup against Seattle. This game looks like it is going to be an absolute shootout and you are going to want to get as many pieces in this game as you can. Hopkins has the fifth-highest percent of targets plus air yards of any WR in the NFL. Only Adam Thielen, Terry McClaurin, Marquise Brown, and Keenan Allen have more. Volume plus favorable matchup equals a very good play.

Terry McLaurin ($5800)
McClaurin is just too cheap. He is coming off another double-digit target game and gets the Cowboys secondary, which is terrible this week. I also just mentioned how he has the second-highest percentage of their team’s target plus air yards of any WR in the NFL. Even though he doesn’t have a stud QB throwing him the ball, he is still getting so much volume and opportunities. It’s just too cheap. Just play him until they price him appropriately.

Quarterbacks:

Kyler Murray ($7100)
Murray’s biggest asset as a fantasy QB is his legs. They design a multitude of runs every game and he is coming off a 10 carry game. He has been struggling slightly in the passing game, but that hasn’t hurt his overall fantasy production. He is the leader in fantasy points for quarterbacks on the year so far. Again, this matchup with the Seahawks is a great one; so, getting the QB that the entire offense is going to run through is a very good idea.

Deshaun Watson ($6800)
The highest point total on the entire slate is the Packers and Texans game. Watson has looked fantastic the past few weeks and last week put up monster numbers against the Titans as he had 355 passing yards four touchdowns and four carries for 26 yards. The Packers’ defense is going to present a much tougher matchup than the Titans did, yet they are still susceptible to getting beat. Watson’s talent prevails here and the rushing floor baked in is making him just too good of a play to pass up.

Tight Ends:

Robert Tonyan ($4600):
The Texans in the top 10 for points given up to the tight end position this year. Tonyan is priced up slightly from where he has been, but still gets enough targets that make him a solid play. Unless you are going to pay all the way up for Travis Kelce at the position, tight end is a tough one to figure out this week. The Atlanta Falcons are terrible against the tight end, the game has a high point total, but do you trust TJ Hockenson, who has been very disappointing this year? I would rather just pay up for Tonyan.

Austin Hooper ($4000):
Hooper is my favorite TE play on the board. He has gotten 7, 10, and 6 targets in his last three games. He gets the Bengals this week that have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to the position. Odell Beckham Jr. has some injuries and sicknesses he has been dealing with and Mayfield has really seemed to lean on Hooper the past few weeks. Mayfield is also banged up so he may not try to force the ball down the field as much.

Defense/Special Teams:

Washington ($2500):
The Cowboys offensive line could be missing three to four starters and they are starting Andy Dalton this week. If Washington can stop the run and force Dalton to throw, they will have a chance to get sacks and force turnovers on Dalton. Zeke Elliot has also put the ball on the turf a lot this year including multiple fumbles last week. Washington is cheap and allows you to pay up elsewhere.

Browns ($2800):
The Bengals have the third-highest adjusted sack rate in the NFL. Their offensive line has been terrible this year and Myles Garrett is one of the best pass rushers in the game which means that he may be in for a multiple sack game. The Bengals also threw the ball as much as anyone in the league. This provides a lot of opportunities for sacks and turnovers.