Oct
29
2020

Edge Factor: NFL Week 8 DSF

Week 7 didn’t disappoint with the game and most of the games that had the huge game totals hit; including Seattle against Arizona and Green Bay against the Texans. There were a lot of fantasy points scored in those games, but also some big disappointments. DK Metcalf for example did not perform like usual, but that was mostly due to Tyler Lockett smashing. This could be a great week to jump back on Metcalf if people are going to be of him after his disappointing performance.

Some of my favorite games to stack this week include Las Vegas against Cleveland, Cincinnati against the Titans, and San Francisco against the Seahawks; all of these game totals are projected at 51 points and all these games have some interesting options. You certainly will have to get creative with some of them though at their price points. Let’s take a look at my favorite plays.

Runningbacks:

Derrick Henry ($8000)
Henry is the second most expensive back on the slate and deservedly so. He continues to get massive amounts of volume with another 22 touch performance last week. Obviously, you’d like to see more catches, but he basically gets every carry and every goal line touch, which is critical. He is projected to have the most fantasy points of any back this week. His price point will cause you to have to find some pay down options, but there do appear to be some on this week’s slate.

Kareem Hunt ($6900)
Hunt is too cheap. He had 21 touches last week and played almost every snap. This week he gets a Raiders defense that has given up the third-most fantasy points to running backs so far this year. Odell Beckham Jr. is out for the Browns with a torn ACL as well. This could cause more targets to go Hunt’s way and the Browns to lean on their run game a little more heavily which against the Raiders, isn’t a bad option. If you stack the Raider options, Derek Carr, Henry Ruggs, and Darren Waller, it is really easy to bring it back with Hunt. The prices match up well.

Wide Receiver:

Tyreek Hill ($6700)
Hill is coming off a 10 target game against the Broncos and is an absolute smash spot this week against the Jets. The Chiefs have a 33.5 implied team total and the Jets are 28th in DVOA against the pass this year. Everyone is waiting for the slate breaking game from Hill and this very well could be it. His ownership is coming in at around 7% as well, which could give you a huge advantage on the rest of the field if he does hit that slate breaking game.

Keenan Allen ($6200)
When Allen has been healthy this year he hasn’t had a game that didn’t result in him having double digit targets. He had another 13 targets and 125 yards last week. This week he has the Broncos who have been surprisingly decent on the defensive side of the ball so far this year. However, that does not concern me because the volume is going to be there for Allen. Keep an eye on his ownership which is looking like it is around 17% percent right now.

Quarterbacks:

Patrick Mahomes ($8100)
While he is the highest priced QB on the slate, it is deservedly so. As mentioned when talking about Tyreek Hill, he has the Jets this week as an opponent and their team total is 33.5 points right now. The offense runs through Mahomes. He will have his pass attempts, but also always have sneaky rushing upside.

Before last week, where he had zero rushing attempts, he had five straight games with four or more rushing attempts and even hit 10 rushing attempts two weeks ago. The other crazy thing is, right now, he is coming in at around 5% ownership. Mahomes at that ownership is always worth having a share of.

Derek Carr ($5500)
Now, this came down to Carr or Jimmy Garoppolo ($5400), and I don’t think you can go wrong with either. The Seahawks defense has been terrible all year and there are some good stacking options for Garoppolo. I chose Derek Carr who is projecting to have just slightly more fantasy points. I also like the options you have to stack with Carr in Ruggs, Waller, and even Nelson Agholor. With all these pieces being so cheap, you can fit in a Derrick Henry at $8000 if you want.

Tight Ends:

Irv Smith Jr. ($3000):
I always tend to pay down at TE. Seeing someone win the Milly Maker on Draftkings with 0 points at the TE position just solidified this for me. Smith Jr. isn’t a terrible option and he has actually had back to back games with 5 targets. They are likely to be down against the Packers, and that could force the ball to go in the air a little more. If he can find the end zone, he ends up being a really good play.

Harrison Bryant ($3200):
Last week I talked about Austin Hooper as a play I like; well, he got appendicitis, needed surgery, his replacement came in, and scored two touchdowns. Harrison Bryant was that guy and I like him again this week. He is another piece that you can get in a Raiders and Cleveland game stack or away off in a different build. He has a ton of upside with OBJ being sidelined due to injury and a really fair price point.

Defense/Special Teams:

49ers ($2700):
This is a tough matchup against the Seahawks, but it doesn’t matter how many points the Seahawks might score, what matters are sacks and turnovers. You saw this last week in their matchup against the Cardinals. Cardinals had three interceptions, multiple sacks, and an almost pick-six (wow DK Metcalf). If the Seahawks continue to throw the ball as much as they are, the 49ers should have some of these same opportunities.

Browns ($2600):
It may seem weird to like the QB in the game where you also like the defense, but that is just the case here. The Raiders are a good run blocking team, but struggle some in the pass blocking department. They have the 6th highest adjusted sack in the NFL. The Browns should be able to get after Carr a little bit and potentially get some sacks and that could potentially lead to turnovers.

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