Oct
06
2020

Edge Factor: PGA Shriners DFS Plays

This week the PGA tour heads out to beautiful Las Vegas for The Shriners Hospitals for Children Open. The event is being played at TPC Summerlin which is a Par 71 course between 7200-7300 yards. This course is not particularly difficult with the winning score coming in at the 20 under or better each of three years.

The field is considerably better than what we have seen on tour the past few weeks as well. Some of the notables include Bryson Dechambeau, Webb Simpson, Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau, Hideki Matsuyama, and Collin Morikawa. Those just happen to be the most expensive players on Draftkings as well from $11,800 down to $9,800 respectively.

Kevin Na was the winner last year at 23 under par. Na barely edged out Patrick Cantlay for the win by putting lights out. He gained over 14 strokes on the greens for the week, which is insane. Cantlay did his damage much differently where he gained only a half stroke on the greens, but 3.7 on approach and 5.3 off the tee.

Players are going to hit the greens here, it is whether or not you can sink some putts to get the win. Maybe players should go the Sergio Garcia route and just close their eyes to the entire tournament. If you are unsure what I am referencing there, Sergio just won Sanderson Farms putting with his eyes closed for the entire tournament. Wild!

Generally speaking, putting is not something I would weigh when coming up with a player pool; however, it seems to be more important here than most tournaments so I will take a closer look and use it as a tie-breaker if players are close.

High-End Play(s):

Patrick Cantlay: $10,400
Cantlay had an average finish at the US Open coming in at 43rd, but he gained 1.7 on approach for the tourney. He also has an incredible course history with two top-two finishes and a win here at Summerlin. Bentgrass is also Cantlay’s preferred putting substance which this course is. He provides some savings from Simpson and Dechambeau up top which is always helpful.

Mid Range Play(s):

Mathew Wolff: $9,600
Wolff may be my favorite play on the entire board. He is 2nd in my model in the last 36 rounds and has made his last seven cuts on tour. That includes a 2nd at the US Open and a 4th at the PGA Championship. Wolff is fully capable of getting the win here. He is a neutral putter on bent, but if he gets the approaches cooking as he did at the majors he should be in great shape.

Russell Henley: $8,400
We haven’t seen Henley in a little over a month, but he was really rounding into form before then. Finishes of 25th, 8th, 9th, and 37th at the BMW, Northern Trust, Wyndham, and PGA and gaining on approach in his last seven rounds has Henley coming in at 3rd in my model over the last 36 rounds in this field. Henley is a positive putter on bent and again, has the ability to compete for a win in this field.

Doc Redman: $7,900
Redman is first in my model in the last 36 rounds. He has a 28th and a 3rd place finish in his last two rounds and gained OTT and APP in those tournaments. His ownership is going to come in around 5-8% and comes in at a very fair price point. Redman is not a great putter, but bent is preferred. He needs to keep the ball striking hot and just sink a few of the opportunities he is giving himself.

Low End Play(s):

Kristoffer Ventura: $7,100
Ventura has two top 10 finishes in his last three events on tour. Ventura has had a hot putter his last two events, which is never sustainable, but also has been getting it done OTT and on APP. He has gained an APP in two of his last three measured events. He is someone that if the putter stays hot could find himself in the top 10 again this week.

Scott Stallings: $6,900
Coming off a 6th place finish at Sanderson Farms, Stallings is looking for another top 10 finish at Shriners. Stallings was a ball-striking maniac last week gaining 3.1 OTT and 5.5 on APP. Stallings’s biggest issue is his putting. He is someone you are going to need to hope finds that hot putter to match his ball striking. If it does, he could be a smash play on the low end of the board.

Favorite Play:

Matthew Wolff- for all the reasons explained above.

Fade:

Tony Finau: He is simply just priced to high for a guy that doesn’t have a ton of win equity. He is someone that can outscore is his placement, but at $10,200, I like Patrick Cantlay much more at only $200 more dollars.

Keep an eye on:

Hideki Matsuyama: He is going to come in around 20% ownership, but he is starting to strike the ball like Hideki-bot of old. Three straight top 20 finishes including a third; he is a salary savory at just under 10k.

Good luck everyone and let’s hit some green screens!