Nov
19
2020

Edge Factor: Week 11 NFL DFS

Unfortunately for us, the games with the highest point totals are not on the main slate this week. The Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks game is Thursday night and has a 56.6 over-under and the Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders game is on Sunday night and has that same 56.5 point total.

That does not mean, however, that there aren’t great options this week for the main slate. This week looks like a great week to pay up at running back with a ton of the high-end talents in great matchups. Christian McCaffrey is out again this week and Mike Davis becomes a very interesting option after disappointing everyone last week.

Running backs

Dalvin Cook ($9000)
Cook is now the second-highest priced RB on the slate with CMC out with injury. Even at his price tag, it is going to be very difficult to get away from him. He is coming off a 30 carry game last week and 82 total in his last three games. He is a threat to break the slate every single week and is getting a tremendous amount of volume. He gets the Cowboys defense this week and should be in another great spot for a huge week!

Mike Davis ($6800)
Mike Davis underperformed last week and I think that may keep some people off of him this week… and that is a mistake. He is in a great spot against the Lions defense who has given up the most fantasy points to running backs on the year. Davis only has two games on the entire year that he has had less than five targets. That is an incredible floor built-in, and in this matchup, he has a great chance to 3x his price tag.

Wide Receivers

Terry McLaurin ($6900)
McLaurin has one… yes one!… game this year with less than five receptions, not targets, receptions. He is averaging 10 targets a game in his last four games. The Bengals have given up the 8th most fantasy points to WRs on the year. Alex Smith has been chucking it all over the yard since his return and that trend should continue against a porous Bengals secondary.

DJ Moore ($5600), Robby Anderson ($6000), and Diontae Johnson ($5900)
So, I am going to totally cheat and give three options of guys all around the same price. I absolutely love all three of these guys this week. Now, I want to see what Teddy Bridgewater’s health status is, but if he is a go I think both of these WRs are great spots. As you can see I like a lot of these pieces in the Panthers’ offense this week (Run back with Swift or Golladay(if healthy)).

Johnson, when he has played, has been a total stud. He has gotten 21 targets in the last two games. The Jaguars defense let up big plays last week against the Packers, and we saw Roelithsberger push the ball down the field a little more than we have all year last week. All three of these WRs provide some salary savings to pay up for all the high end running back talent on the slate.

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert ($6800)
Herbert has the projection of the second-highest points of any QB on the slate, and that makes sense since he gets the lowly Jets defense this week. Pairing him with Keenan Allen makes a lot of sense, as the rookie has targeted him early and often so far this year. Herbert is averaging 40 attempts in his last four outings and has no fewer than three rushing attempts in those games too. He is a great option for cash as well but has the upside to hit big in some of the bigger GPP contests.

Joe Burrow ($5500)
There are some very interesting pay-down options at quarterback this week including Jameis Winston and Alex Smith. I am going to go with Burrow here, but it does make me a little nervous because Washington’s defense, specifically their front seven, is much better than people think. Burrow has been throwing it a lot in the last four games averaging over 40 attempts a game. That type of volume is tough to pass up at that price tag.

Tight Ends

Austin Hooper ($3900)
The Browns have had some bad luck as far as wind games the last two weeks, and that has hindered their passing game. This should be a decent bounce-back spot against the Eagles, who have given up the fourth-most fantasy points to TEs on the year.

Logan Thomas ($3300)
So, the Washington Football Team is a super interesting stacking option because you can get Alex Smith, Logan Thomas, and Terry McLaurin for relatively cheap, and that leaves room to stack a lot of the high-end talent. Thomas is averaging five targets a game over his last four games.

Defense/Special Teams:

Falcons ($2300)
I am looking to save serious money on defenses this week, so I am going with some deep punt plays down here. First is the Falcons. This is strictly a play against Jameis Winston in two different factions. First, he is looking like he may end up being pretty popular, so there is good leverage there. Also, we all know he can get very loose with the ball. Just one pick-six would pay off the Falcons price point.

Broncos ($2400)
The Broncos are fifth in the NFL in pressure percentage. Tua Tagovailoa has looked good as of recent, but he is still a rookie. If the Broncos can give him some new looks and get pressure, they may be set up to get some turnovers.