Nov
26
2020

Edge Factor: Week 12 NFL DFS

It is hard to believe that we are already to Week 12 in the NFL, but here we are. The season is rapidly coming to a close and unfortunately there are more and more COVID cases popping up throughout the country. As you are researching and building lineups throughout the week, it is going to be important to continue to keep an eye on the inactives due to COVID.

Even with all the injuries and COVID situations, there is good news. There are still a million dollars up for grabs, and I am going to give you some of my favorite plays to try and win it!

Running Backs

Derrick Henry ($7900)
Henry is a volume monster; it does not matter the matchup with him, he is always going to get his carries and his opportunities at the goal line. The Colts defense has been tough all year, but just two weeks ago when they played, Henry had over 100 yards rushing. He has had over 18 carries in four straight games, and I see no reason why that would change this week.

James Robinson ($6300)
Robinson is honestly probably too cheap for the number of touches he gets every single game. He is like Henry in the sense that he is going to get all the carries and all the goal-line work. Unlike Henry, Robinson also gets some work in the passing game. In the last four games, his lowest touch total is 19 and he has been over 25 in three of those games. He also provides little savings from the top guys like Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, and Derrick Henry.

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill ($7800)
I am starting every lineup this week with Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce I think. The Chiefs play the Buccaneers who are good against the run but can be exposed in the passing game.

Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods both went over 100 yards in their recent matchup with them. Hill has 32 targets in the last two games. He also touchdowns in the last four games. Give me all the Hill this week.

Cooper Kupp ($6400)
Kupp has two 11 catch games in his last three outings. In those games, he also had over 100 yards; however, he hasn’t been able to find the end zone in four games. This is a great week for a little positive regression. Kupp had a great performance against the Bucs, and this is another good spot for him.

Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes ($6800)
Three straight games with over 40 pass attempts, and with how the Bucs can defend the run, I would expect another one to be on its way. He is the best player in the world, and a game that looks like is going to have a lot of pass attempts. I am not going to overthink this.

Daniel Jones ($5500)
Jones is a decent pay down option if you are looking to save money at the QB position this week. He gets a struggling Bengals defense this week and is coming off a nice game against the Eagles. The best thing about Jones is his rushing upside. He had nine carries against the Eagles and six carries in the game before that. Having that built-in floor is really nice at his price point.

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce ($7000)
Kelce has been, by far, the best TE in the league this year. He is third in all the NFL in receiving yards. In his last three games, he has no fewer than 10 targets. This is a tougher matchup with the speedy Bucs LBs, but I don’t think it matters all that much. As mentioned previously, Mahomes, Hill, Kelce. Don’t overthink it.

Anthony Firkser ($2600)
Firkser has been getting more and more involved in the Titans game plan as of late. He is averaging just over four targets a game in his last four. The way the TE position has played, outside of Kelce, this year, you don’t need much from him, especially at his price. If he can get you 4 catches for 54 yards and a TD, you will be in great shape.

Defense/Special Teams:

Bengals ($2500)
Everyone is going to play the Giants against the Bengals and backup QB Ryan Finley. To gain some leverage, I am going to be on the opposite side of this. Jones may be a decent pay down option, but that doesn’t mean he can’t come out and have four turnovers and a pick-six. He has as many turnovers as anyone since he has come into the league.

Jets ($2100)
A complete punt at defense this week could be the Jets. This is a play against rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa. He has not been great so far in his starts and was even benched last week. The Jets are going to blitz him early and often. Hopefully, that can result in some turnovers.