Dec
03
2020

Edge Factor: Week 13 NFL DFS

COVID seems to be the headline of Week 12 in the NFL, but we still nailed some of our favorite DFS plays. Derrick Henry smashed and went for 178 and three touchdowns. James Robinson went for 128 and a touchdown and four catches for 31 yards. Those guys were great, but Tyreek Hill completely smashed, and Patrick Mahomes wasn’t too shabby either.

I mentioned, to anyone who would listen, that the Chiefs stack was my favorite stack of the week. If you went there yourself, you probably had a decent week. This week, let’s see if we can find some more smash plays.

Running Backs

Derrick Henry ($9200)
Henry is finally priced up to a point where you actually have to hesitate and think if you should jam him in. His volume and production have been off the charts the past few weeks, and I see no reason the volume should slow down. He is 300 dollars cheaper than Dalvin Cook, and that is largely due to the pass receiving upside. I will take my chances, and I am going to continue to ride the Henry train.

David Montgomery ($5500)
Montgomery is certainly not my favorite play on the board, but at his price, I don’t hate it, especially if you are going to try and get Derrick Henry in your lineups. In his last four games, he only has one game below five targets. He also continues to get the volume and the goal line touches. His matchup is what makes this a good play.

The Lions have given up the most fantasy points to running backs on there. At his price, you could certainly do worse.

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ($9000)
Four straight games with nine or more targets; a touchdown in six of the eight games he has played this year. Spoiler alert: the Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams stack is my favorite stack of the week. His matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles does not scare me.

Yes, he will likely garner the attention of Darius Slay, but DK Metcalf just put him in a blender. Adams also has basically been great all year regardless of the matchup. I am going to find the money to get him in my lineups this week.

Robert Woods ($5900)
Last week, we had Cooper Kupp who let us down; this week, Robert Woods won’t do that. Woods is at a great price point, and it won’t take much to pay that off. Woods has 27 targets in his last two outings! He also has two touchdowns in his last four games. As long as he continues to get anything somewhat close to the same volume as the last two games, he should be a great play.

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers ($6800)
Outside of Patrick Mahomes, there isn’t a quarterback playing better than Aaron Rodgers this year. He has 15 touchdowns in his last four games; so, even in a game like last week where he only had 29 attempts and 211 yards, he was extremely efficient. He is the third-highest projected QB on the slate and I love the upside he always brings. The Eagles defense is also 11th in the NFL per DVOA against the run, so that may force this to be a more pass-heavy game.

Ryan Fitzpatrick ($6000)
This obviously depends on whether or not he is even going to start, which we won’t know until Sunday apparently. The Cincinnati Bengals are 26th in the NFL per DVOA defending the pass. I also love pairing Devante Parker with Fitzpatrick or playing him as a one-off. Fitzpatrick is coming off a solid 257 yard two touchdown 3 carry game against the New York Jets.

Tight Ends

Tight end is one of the biggest punt positions and has been all year. There seems to be very little difference between any of the players with Travis Kelce not on the slate. Darren Waller may be the best play, but he is also the highest priced at $6100. I am going to continue to punt and hope I can find the guys that find the endzone.

Robert Tonyan ($3700)
I love the Rodgers/Adams stack and I don’t mind throwing Tonyan in there as well. Two straight games with five targets and a touchdown. The Eagles have given up the 10th most fantasy points to tight ends on the year; that is good enough for me.

Anthony Firkser ($2500)
Firkser let me down last week, but I am going back to him. His game with the Colts was his worst outing as far as targets were concerned in eight weeks. The Cleveland Browns have given up the third-most fantasy points to tight ends on the year.

Defense/Special Teams:

Giants ($2200)
The Giants pressure at the 11th highest rate in the NFL. The Seahawks just struggled to protect Russel Wilson against the Eagles. Pressures, sacks, turnovers are what DFS defense is all about.

Patriots ($2400)
The Patriots pressure at the second-highest rate in the NFL. Bill Belichick also has a track record of dominating rookie quarterbacks. I think he will be able to confuse and get after Justin Herbert. He also has a tremendous advantage in special teams. Patriots have one of the best, and the Chargers have the worst.