Dec
10
2020

Edge Factor: Week 14 NFL DFS

It was a true story of good mixed with bad last week. For example, at running back the good was David Montgomery, the bad was Derrick Henry. Henry most certainly hurt a lot of people with his worst output in a month.

One of the best calls of the week was the Patriots’ defense. They absolutely smashed and for the reason I mentioned. They had a huge advantage on special teams and ended up getting a punt return for a touchdown and a blocked field goal for a touchdown.

This week is a monster slate. There are 13 games and a ton to break down. Right now I like a lot of the higher priced plays, which isn’t obviously going to work. So I am going to have to continue to work through and hopefully find some gems, like the Patriots defense last week.

Here are some of my early favorites!

Running Backs

Derrick Henry ($8700)
Henry let everyone down last week, including me. That is not going to deter me from going right back to him. He got a price decrease and is in a smash spot against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Henry has the highest point projection on the slate. The Jaguars are just not good and have given up the fourth most fantasy points to running backs on the year. After last week and with Christian McCaffrey’s return, Henry could end up getting a little forgotten.

Jonathan Taylor ($5800)
The last two weeks have seen Taylor get 16 and 26 opportunities. This week he gets the Raiders defense which is 32nd in the NFL against the run per DVOA. This looks like it could be a game the Colts try to control on the ground and that would lead to even more touches for Taylor. If you are going to want to pay up for a lot of options you are going to have to find some pay down options and Taylor is a good one.

Wide Receivers

D.K. Metcalf ($8400)
I am super interested in all of the top options this week at WR. Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill and Metcalf are all in good spots, but all really expensive. I am going to try and get to all of three of them in my builds. They will be my priority this week. I think of them Metcalf is my favorite. He is the least expensive and looks to be the low owned. The matchup against the Jets couldn’t be better. They are 32nd in the NFL against the pass. When the Chiefs played the Jets no one stacked them up and they smashed. I loved the Chiefs that week and I love the Seahawks stack this week.

Sammy Watkins ($4900)
Watkins is a huge risk, but let me make my case for him. He has seven, two, seven and six targets in his last four games. The two targets is obviously not great, but the Chiefs are throwing the ball at a massive rate right now and I don’t expect that to slow down. Mahomes has 40, 45, 49 and 49 attempts in his last four games. The Dolphins have two good corners on the outside, but struggle on the slot. Watkins lines up in the slot on 50% of his snaps. The only person on the team with more time there, Tyreek Hill with 56% of his snaps coming from the slot ( I already mentioned I like Hill a lot). I think the Chiefs will exploit this weakness of the Dolphins and Watkins is always good for one blow up game a year. I think it is this week.

Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson ($7100)
Wilson had 43 pass attempts last week in their loss to the Giants. I don’t think he is going to need that many, but they are in a great spot to take advantage of a terrible Jets secondary. I already mentioned how I like Metcalf and I am going to be stacking him and Wilson together this week. I think I am going to even include Lockett in them as well. I think the Seahawks passing attack is in just too good of a spot not too.

Mike Glennon ($5100)
This might be one of the worst things I have ever tried to sell in these articles. This is a total punt play at QB in a game that I think could end being a sneaky shootout. The Titans pass defense is not good. The last two weeks Glennon has 42 and 35 pass attempts. You can stack him pretty cheaply and try to jam in some of those high priced WRs. Play at your own risk!

Tight Ends

Dalton Schultz ($3500)
The tight end position has been brutal, and it is even worse this week. There are basically no plays below 3k that I even like. Schultz is in a good spot against the Bengals who just got torched by Mike Gesecki. I don’t mind him in this matchup in Andy Dalton’s revenge game!

Cole Kmet ($2900)
The one player that I am looking at under that $3000 dollar threshold is Cole Kmet. He seems to be getting more run than Jimmy Graham as of late and is coming off a seven target game.

Defense/Special Teams:

Broncos ($2500)
Pressure is the name of the game when it comes to DFS defenses and the Broncos due that better than everyone except the Steelers. The Panthers could also be missing some of their offensive weapons which makes this an even better matchup for them.

Falcons ($2400)
Falcons pressure the third most of anyone in the NFL right after the for mentioned Broncos. They face the Chargers who look like they are just trying to get the season over as fast as possible at this point. Anthony Lynn isn’t a good coach and I will take my chances on a pressure defense against a bad coach and a rookie QB (even if he has played great this year).