Dec
18
2020

Edge Factor: Week 15 NFL DFS

The two running backs I loved last week completely smashed. Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor both had massive games and didn’t let me down. This week… I am going right back to them! I love both of the spots that they are in and don’t even care about the price bump that they both got.

The tougher decision comes when trying to figure out stacks. There are some interesting plays at the quarterback position, and the Chiefs stack is extremely expensive. There are going to be some tough decisions to make, but I think I have some early leans that I really like.

Running Backs

Derrick Henry ($9500)
As I said, I am going right back to Derrick Henry this week. He is the most expensive back on the board and for good reason: he is coming off a 200-yard multi-touchdown game and gets the Lions defense this week. The Lions have given up the second-most fantasy points to running backs on the year. Henry is in another smash spot.

I can see the argument to fading him because of price but do so with caution. You don’t want to be on the other end of another 200 yards, 2 touchdown game.

Jonathan Taylor ($7200)
Taylor received a huge pay bump this week, jumping almost $1400, however, it looks like he is the clear lead back in Indianapolis finally and is coming off three straight games of 90 or more rush yards. This week he gets the Houston Texans defense, and do you know who the only team that has given up more fantasy points to RBs this year other than the Lions? You guessed it, the Texans.

Wide Receivers

Chad Hansen ($4200)
If you are paying up for two expensive backs, you are going to have to find spots to pay down. Chad Hansen has two straight games, in the absence of Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks, with seven targets. He is still only $4200 and is a good stacking option with Jonathan Taylor. You can use them as a mini-stack in a game if you don’t wait to pair Hansen with Deshaun Watson. The Colts are a tougher matchup, but there are so few receiving options in Houston, Hansen is a good play at his price.

Brandon Aiyuk ($6300)
Aiyuk may end up being the chalk of the week. He has been an absolute target monster as of late. His last 3 of 4 games saw double-digit targets. In his only game not in double digits, he had 9. Deebo Samuel is now out with a hamstring injury and he is going to see even more work. Last week after Samuel went out, Aiyuk finished the game with 16 targets. He gets a Cowboys defense this week that hasn’t been able to stop anyone in the passing game. They rank 23rd per DVOA against the pass this year.

Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts ($5900)
Hurts had his first career start last week against the Saints and didn’t disappoint hopeful fantasy owners. He finished the game with over 100 yards rushing on 18 attempts and another 167 passing and a touchdown. Obviously, his biggest strength is his rushing ability. He is someone you can play naked because of his rushing upside. I like his price a lot and think it may even be a little underpriced with his ability to run.

Lamar Jackson ($7500)
Jackson is starting to look more like his MVP form. He has double-digit carries in 4 of his last 5 games. The one game he didn’t was last week against the Browns where he had 9 for 124 yards. He should be able to put up similar numbers against the Jaguars. I actually like a JK Dobbins and have some very little interest in Gus Edwards as well. I think this should be a run-heavy script and it should be focused around Jackson.

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce ($8000)
Huge price tag, but deservedly so. He is leading the entire NFL in receiving yards and he has been an absolute stud all year. You can treat him as the elite WR and punt at the actual 3rd WR position, and I think that would make a lot of sense; or, you can double up at TE and play Kelce in the flex. This also allows you to late swap if need be.

Cole Kmet ($3000)
Unfortunately, last week Jimmy Graham got the touchdown. Kmet continued to get targets, though. He now has back to back weeks with at least 7 targets. Just keep the target share and be the one to find the end zone this week, Cole and we are golden!

Defense/Special Teams:

Washington ($2600)
Love Washington this week. They are 10th in the league for pressure rate. The Seahawks give up the 8th most pressure with their offensive line. This is a good matchup and hopefully, the pressure can lead to some turnovers.

Falcons ($2300)
Falcons pressure the 9th most of any team in the NFL. The Bucs give up the most pressure of anyone in the NFL. That is good enough for me for one of the cheapest defenses on the slate.