Dec
24
2020

Edge Factor: Week 16 NFL DFS

This is an interesting week for DFS. The Chiefs and Falcons game is the game that seems to be the game that everyone wants to stack, but the pieces in that game are expensive. One of the options I am looking at in that game is actually stacking Matt Ryan with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to save salary at the QB position.

Some cheaper backs could be interesting plays. Darrell Henderson, Ito Smith, and Gio Bernard are all in the $4k range and could open your lineups up, but then you have to worry that they just stink and won’t get you enough points. The running back position doesn’t have Derrick Henry or Dalvin Cook this week either. There is a lot to figure out on this slate, which is a smaller one, because of all the games on Friday and Saturday. I think I have found some good plays, however. So, let’s get to them!

Running Backs

Nick Chubb ($7800)
Nick Chubb doesn’t seem to be getting a lot of love across sites and podcasts, and I am not too sure why. The Jets are decent against the run, but they are still the Jets, and Chubb is still getting a ton of volume. Last week against the Rams, Cam Akers broke off a bunch of long runs and there is no reason why Chubb can’t do the same. Chubb has no fewer than 17 touches since week 10. I love that volume at low ownership.

Darrell Henderson Jr. ($4500)
If you are looking for value at the running back position, Henderson provides some interesting value. Cam Akers was banged up against the Jets and is out for this game. Henderson should take the lead role, but you can never be too sure with Sean McVay. At $4500 though, if he sees anywhere near the volume Akers had been getting, he is a good play at $4500.

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill ($9000)
I am not going to overthink this. I am going to play Tyreek Hill. The Falcons play a lot of man coverage and Hill destroys man coverage. He also has the most touchdowns by a WR on the year. I love this Falcons-Chiefs game in general, as I am sure most people do.

Hill’s fewest targets since week nine are seven. That is just incredible. And we know he could break a slate at any point. Don’t overthink this. Find ways to get to Hill, Ridley, and Kelce.

DJ Moore ($5800)
Moore is going to get overlooked this week and could be a huge ownership play. He has a tough matchup against Washington, but he is getting a ton of volume. His fewest amount of targets in the last four weeks is seven. I am not going to go out of my way to jam him in, but I do think he provides a very interesting play.

Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts ($7000)
There are some really interesting plays at the QB position. I like Patrick Mahomes all the way at the top, but he is super expensive. I also think Deshaun Watson is in play. However, I am going to go with Jalen Hurts here. Hurts got a huge price bump after his performance last week, but rightfully so. He is providing such a floor with his running ability that when he throws well, he smashes. Last week he threw for over 300 yards while still having the rushing attempts. That combo is lethal in DFS.

Matt Ryan ($5800)
I mentioned previously that I like the idea of going to Ryan with Kelce and Hill, and I think that is where I am going to go for my main lineup. His salary provides massive savings and allows you to jam in those other guys. If I can make it work, I will pair him with Calvin Ridley or Russell Gage. If Ryan has time, he can be super effective and we saw that last week against the Buccaneers; also, in a game they are likely going to be having to score a lot to keep up, he is going to be throwing the ball at a high volume.

Tight Ends

Tyler Eifert ($3000)
Outside of Travis Kelce, the tight end position is very lackluster. This week I am going to try and punt with Tyler Eifert. The Bears have given up the third-most fantasy points to TEs on the year. Eifert is just about as low as I am going to go as far as salary because the options in the $2k range are really poor.

Jordan Akins ($3300)
Akins has back to back games with six targets and should have had a touchdown two weeks ago if not for the sun being in his eyes and the ball hitting him directly in the chest. The Bengals have given up the sixth-most fantasy points to TEs on the year.

Defense/Special Teams

This may be a cop-out, but I am just going to use whatever defense fits into my lineups this week; I don’t even care if it is the Jets against Cleveland. If I can avoid it, sure, but I am not going to go out of my way. There are too many higher-priced plays that I want to get to. I am going to just need to let whoever fits in there be the play. If I had to choose one, I don’t mind going back to Washington at $3k or even Dallas at $2400. Hurts is a good QB play, but he still takes sacks, which is good for DFS defenses.