Jan
01
2021

Edge Factor: Week 17 NFL DFS

The last week of the regular season in the NFL is here. It is crazy to think back all the way to the beginning of the year and the uncertainty of whether or not they were going to even be able to get the season in.

Through opt-outs, continuous weeks of players getting COVID or being close contacts and having to sit out, and everything in between, they got the regular season in.

This week is different than a lot of the other slates for DFS. Some teams are resting players while others are playing for their playoff lives. It is going to be critical to keep an eye on who is sitting, who is playing, what teams are playing for something, and what teams are playing for the future.

I am going to help you sort through some of that.

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor ($7400)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have given up the fourth-most points to running backs on the year. The Colts are in a must-win situation if they want to have any chance of making the playoffs. Taylor has taken over the lead back roll over the past few weeks. He has no fewer than 16 opportunities in the last four weeks. He is in a great matchup and a major discount from the Derrick Henry and Alvin Kamara’s of the world (not that they are bad plays, but you pay for them).

Myles Gaskin ($6500)
The Dolphins are another team that needs to win to ensure their playoff spot. They play the Buffalo Bills and as of right now it is uncertain if the Bills are going to sit any of their players. Gaskin has seen incredible volume whenever he has been healthy and in the lineup. He has no fewer than 19 opportunities in the last four games that he has played. The Bills’ run defense has struggled at times this year and could end up pulling starters. I like this spot for Gaskin a lot.

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ($9200)
Adams has been on an absolute tear this year. Rodgers recently said he thinks he is in the conversation for the best football player he has ever played with. Right there with Charles Woodson. Adams has only three games all year without double-digit targets. In two of those three games, he has nine targets. He also has scored at least one touchdown in all but three of the games he has played in this year. I am going to eat the salary and play him. He is worth the cost.

Tee Higgins ($5000)
Higgins is an interesting play. He isn’t in the best matchup, but the Baltimore Ravens have been struggling lately against the pass with Marcus Peters and Jimmy Smith being banged up. Higgins has been getting volume regardless of who is at quarterback. Other than the first game he has only two games on the year where he has less than six targets. The last time they played Baltimore, he had four catches on eight targets for 62 yards. They are going to likely be down in the game and have to throw a lot. He is a pretty discounted price and can provide savings with some upside.

Quarterbacks

Deshaun Watson ($7700)
Very quietly, Watson has had one of the best years by a quarterback. He is on a bad team so it really doesn’t get talked about. He has two games all year that are below five rushing attempts. That built-in floor with his rushing ability provides a great starting point at QB. He has also gone over 300 yards in five of his last six games. The Titans have given up the fifth-most fantasy points to QBs on the year. This game has shootout written all over with a 56 point total for the over/under.

Aaron Rodgers ($7400)
Too cheap. Rodgers is arguably just too cheap this week. In a game that they need to win to lock up the one seed, Rodgers is also looking to wrap up his MVP season. The biggest thing with Rodgers is that even if he isn’t throwing for 300 plus yards, he is getting touchdowns. He has only two games this year where he didn’t throw for at least two touchdowns. Stacking him and Adams is a good start to most lineups.

Tight Ends

Stephen Anderson ($2600)
Anderson could end up being the only healthy left for the Chargers on Sunday. Hunter Henry was on the COVID list and Donald Parham missed Wednesday’s practice with an illness. This is a complete punt play, but could end up being a decent play. The Chiefs have given up the eighth-most fantasy points to TEs and are likely to be sitting starters.

Mike Gesicki ($4200)
The Bills have given up the sixth-most fantasy points to TEs on the year. The Dolphins are in a must-win situation. Gesicki has 24 targets in his last 3 games. His price isn’t going to hurt you too badly if you don’t want to completely punt the position.

Defense/Special Teams

Browns ($2500)
The Browns are likely to be the chalk defense at their price and for good reason. They get to faceoff against Mason Rudolph, who will be playing for Ben Roethlisberger this game. Rudolph isn’t good. There should be opportunities for turnovers there.

Cowboys ($2900)
Three straight games with double-digit fantasy points. The Giants allow the fourth-highest pressure rate against in the NFL. Even with Daniel Jones back I like this matchup. If the Cowboys continue to pressure like they have Jones will be good for a few turnovers.