Nov
05
2020

Edge Factor: Week 9 NFL DFS

We are midway through the NFL season. Everything from this point on is the downhill stretch. It has been a crazy year so far and seems to be getting crazier with the constant COVID scares. It is important in any fantasy that you are constantly trying to keep up with any COVID tests.

This week may be one of the best weeks of the year as far as matchups are concerned. There is a multitude of great games this week including the Buffalo Bills vs the Seattle Seahawks, the Baltimore Ravens vs the Indianapolis Colts, the Miami Dolphins vs the Arizona Cardinals, the Chicago Bears vs the Tennessee Titans, and the New Orleans Saints vs the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The most enticing game from a DFS viewpoint is the Bills vs Seahawks game. It has the highest implied total on the slate and is going to be hard to get away from with the number of great plays there are in this game.

As always, finding the pay-down options are key. I think we may have just found some too.

Runningbacks:

Dalvin Cook ($8200)
Cook absolutely torched the Packers last week to the tune of 163 yards, 2 catches, and 4 total TDs. Cook is in another smash spot this week. He has the second-highest projected points on the slate for a running back after Alvin Kamara, and he gets a Detroit Lions defense that has given up the third-most fantasy points to RBs on the year and they are 24th in adjusted line yards. The Vikings offensive line on the other hand is fourth in adjusted line yards. They have a massive advantage there.

David Johnson ($5600)
David Johnson is certainly not the player he once was; however, he is still receiving a ton of volume. He is 10th in the NFL in opportunity share for running backs which carry plus targets. Johnson hasn’t had less than 14 carries since week three of the season, and the Jaguars are 7 point dogs in the matchup, and if they are down the Texans could just feed Johnson the ball to drain the clock. A nice mini-stack could be pairing the other RB in this game with Johnson in James Robinson, who also has a favorable matchup.

Wide Receiver:

Tyler Lockett ($6800)
Too cheap. The Seahawks are throwing the ball all over the yard and it is funneled mainly to two options, Lockett or DK Metcalf. Lockett is the cheaper of the two this weak and is carrying the heavier ownership because of it. I am willing to eat the chalk, however.

The Bills defense is giving up eight targets and 13 fantasy points a game to the slot WR so far this year. Lockett lines up in the slot on 63% of his routes. It is the best matchup on the entire slate. I have no issue taking Lockett at around 20% ownership with the expected volume and potential shootout of this game.

Diontae Johnson ($5000)
A potential pay down option at WR this week is Diontae Johnson. He has struggled with his health this year, but when he is, he has gotten double-digit targets every single time. The Steelers are massive favorites against the Cowboys and rightfully so. The Cowboys defense has been shredded by just about everyone this week. Johnson has the highest percentage of targets plus air yards on the Steelers team. This is a potential smash spot at a great price.

Quarterbacks:

Russell Wilson ($7600)
Again, this game is going to be very hard to get away from. Wilson has been “cooking” all year and that shouldn’t stop against a struggling Bills defense. Wilson has the second-highest projected points total on the slate, only behind Patrick Mahomes. It is expensive to stack him with Lockett or Metcalf or both but could pay off in a major way. The offense funnels through Wilson; it is going to be tough to keep him out of your lineups this week.

Justin Herbert ($6800)
Herbert is an interesting option this week. He has three straight games with at least 34 pass attempts, and he faces off with the Raiders this week who have given up the 8th most fantasy points to quarterbacks on the year. This game has the third-highest point total on the slate and could get forgotten with so many other options like Mahomes, Wilson, Murray, and Watson. Herbert has surprised in his time as a rookie this year and has another chance to put up big numbers this week.

Tight Ends:

Alex Okwuegbunam ($2800)
This is a total punt play at the tight end position. The Broncos are three-point dogs against the Falcons and Drew Lock has attempted 81 passes in the last two weeks. Alex O only received one target last week but had 13 combined the previous two weeks. Noah Fant may be the first TE in that offense, but they seem to want to work him in. He and Lock have a good repour from their time together in Missouri.

Darren Waller ($5800)
Waller is the best pay up option at the tight end position this week in my opinion. He is extremely consistent with the number of targets he gets weekly. In a game that could be a shootout, you are going to want Derek Carr’s favorite target. Carr has tallied at least 6 targets in three straight games.

Defense/Special Teams:

Cardinals ($2900)
The Cardinals, surprisingly enough, have the fifth-highest adjusted sack rate in the NFL. They do a good job getting after the quarterback. Tua, in his first start, struggled last week against the Rams who were constantly in his face. If the Cardinals can pressure him, they may be able to cause some turnovers and luck their way into a defensive touchdown.

Broncos ($2700)
The Falcons are throwing the ball as much as anyone in the NFL right now. The Broncos have the fifth-highest pressure rate in the NFL. High passing volume against Matt Ryan being pressured sounds like a recipe for DFS points to me!

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