The Jaguars travel to Green Bay to play the Packers this week in a showdown of two teams in very different positions. The spread is Green Bay -14, which makes sense given the talent and production of both teams. While I originally loved the Packers with the points, that was before the weather updates.
The Over/Under has been bet down significantly due to the poor weather expected. That line now stands at 47.5. That’s because it’s going to be a tough day to air the ball out. It’s expected to be very windy, between 25-35 MPH. Further, gusts could reach up to 45 MPH.
Prop Bet Record: 1-2 (See what happened here)
Thursday Night Football was the first game publishing my Prop Picks this season.
1st Quarter Spread Green Bay Packers -3.5 (-120)
I know, I moved off the Packers line for the game but came back to them for the first quarter. There’s the reasoning for it.
This bet is simply about two things:
- The high wind is going to be frustrating for both offenses, but one team has Aaron Rodgers under center and the other has Jake Luton. In career start number two, I expect the rookie 6th rounder to take a series or two to get a feel for how this game will have to be played.
- The Packers have scored on their first possession of every single game this season. Matt LaFleur has consistently had opening series scripts that move right down the field and put the Packers on the board. That makes me think he will do the same thing against a bad Jaguars team.
Jamaal Williams Over 31.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Returning from the Covid list, Jamaal Williams will play in the same game as Aaron Jones in what feels like an eternity. Jones came back from his injury last week when the team could no longer play it overly cautious even if they wanted to. With both playing today, expect LaFluer to do his best spreading out touches between the two. In his last two games played, Williams ran for 77 and 75 yards, respectively, both without Jones available.
Still, Jones is THE guy in the Green Bay backfield, meaning Williams will get his touches to minimize the workload. He’s very good and will bring a burst to the Packer offense today.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling Under 2.5 Receptions (-194)
Finally, the Valdes-Scantling bet I couldn’t avoid. Once again, we’re thinking about the conditions. Windy and wet, MVS can’t be trusted to be involved much in the passing game. He has three total catches in his last three outings.
He should be nothing more than a decoy keeping the Jags safeties honest for most of this one. There’s certainly a chance for a big catch, maybe even two. I don’t see him doing much more though, because the fact of the matter is he does one thing well and not much else. Over the top, outrun the defense, make the big play. That’s why his average depth of target this season is 17.4, easily the highest on the team.