Nov
14
2020

My Big Fat Parlay Bet – NFL Week 10

We had two separate tickets that were one leg away from landing last week: Travis Kelce scoring a touchdown for the KC/Carolina ticket and Deandre Hopkins scoring on the Arizona/Miami ticket. I am so close to hitting my target that I can almost taste it, and it certainly has to taste better than my PS4 controller.

However, the goalposts have been moved. Playstations and Xbox’s are sold out, and our best bet for getting a system is buying them off of a scalper. This means the price of one console just went from 500 dollars to 1200 dollars.

I still need games to play on the system (Assassin’s Creed: Valhalla, Watch Dogs: Legion, The Pathless) and I like to have an extra controller. While we are already moving the goalposts, I need extra winnings so I can pre-order God of War: Ragnarok, Resident Evil: Village, Final Fantasy 16, Horizon Forbidden West, and Ratchet and Clank: Rift Apart (No Xbox games on this list because I have Game Pass, giving me access to all of the best title on release at no additional cost. No reason to unnecessarily raise the goal) so that’s gonna add some extra costs. I think for safety reasons, and because I do not want to do the math for a more exact number, 2000 dollars should be our new goal, so we are going to aim around there.

You may be thinking “But that’s only one console, what happened to doing both?” to which I would simply reply that you can double your winnings by doubling your bet. 10 dollars for 2000, 20 dollars for 4000, or 1000 dollars for 2,000,000 dollars.

So we are not going to waste any more time in the intro, and instead are going to jump into the tickets.

Author’s Note: Bet at your own risk. All odds are provided by Fanduel Sportsbook.

The Obvious Tickets

You know how these work, so we are going to move with speed.

For the spread ticket, we have an eight-leg parlay that turns 10 dollars into 1996.20 dollars. We have Cleveland covering -3.5, Philadelphia covering -4, Carolina with +5.5 points, Washington with +4.5 points, Buffalo with +2.5 points, Miami covering -1.5, Seahawks with +2 points, Minnesota cover -3.

Some of these bets seem really obvious, and you could honestly add in the Ravens to cover -6.5 points, taking the payout from 1996.20 to 3740.72, without really hurting the safety of this ticket.

For the over/under ticket, we have another eight-leg parlay ticket, turning 10 dollars into 1790.60 dollars, which maybe short of our goal a bit, but we can make it work. We have Cleveland/Houston under 46.5, Tampa Bay/Carolina over 50.5, Buffalo/Arizona over 56.5, Vegas/Denver under 50.5, Cincinnati/Pittsburgh over 46, New Orleans/San Francisco under 48.5, Los Angeles/Seattle over 54.5, Minnesota/Chicago over 43.5 points. Honestly, quite a few question marks on this ticket, but I am pretty confident in my choices.

The mixed ticket is also an 8 leg parlay ticket, turning 10 dollars into 1879 dollars exact. I have Browns covering -3.5, Philadelphia/New York under 44.5, Tampa Bay/Carolina over 50.5, Buffalo/Arizona over 56.6, Miami to cover -1.5, Cincinnati/Pittsburgh over 46, Seattle with +2, and Minnesota to cover -3. I feel really confident and comfortable with this ticket and would be comfortable even putting 20 or 30 bucks on this ticket.

Single Game Tickets

This week’s slate of games is pretty weak, but there are definitely a few games worth betting on.

Tampa Bay and Carolina are set to have an offensive explosion of a game, with both teams having a legitimate shot at coming away the winner. The Bucs’ defense is inconsistent but potentially dangerous, while the Panthers’ defense is mediocre. We need to look at offensive props and just pound the over for that ticket.

We have a seven leg same game parlay ticket that turns 10 dollars into 2082.29 dollars. The legs are Carolina with 5.5 points, Gronk scoring a touchdown, Antonio Brown scoring a touchdown, Ronald Jones under 51.5 rushing, Teddy Bridgewater over 14.5 yards rushing, Mike Davis over 35.5 yards receiving, Curtis Samuel over 47.5 yards receiving.

The Panthers let Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill embarrass them last week, which makes me comfortable giving Gronk and Antonio Brown touchdowns this week, while Bridgewater is a pretty tough runner that makes me comfortable giving him some rushing yards.

I do feel comfortable giving Mike Davis a touchdown since CMC is riding the sideline again, but left him off because I just did not know about Bridgewater’s passing against a divisional opponent.

The Bills get the chance to play another team without a defense in the Arizona Cardinals this week, while the Cardinals get to bully a mediocre defense for the first time since they embarrassed the Seahawks. So we are pounding overs again.

This ticket is an eight-leg same game parlay bet that turns 10 dollars into 2396.75 dollars. The legs are Buffalo with +2.5, Kyler Murray scoring a touchdown, Josh Allen tossing for more than 299.5 yards, Kyler Murray tossing for more than 274.5 yards, Kyler Murray rushing for over 54.5 yards, Christian Kirk over 50.5 yards receiving, and Devin Singletary over 17.5 yards receiving. I feel more confident in this ticket than any ticket I have built thus far in this series.

The Big Bet

I must practice self-control. I must not build a multi-million dollar parlay. I must control myself.

I made one bet with a few really strong legs that hit our goal. It turns 10 dollars into 2186.03 dollars, and the best part – it is only 6 legs.

The legs are all easy wins: Gronk scoring a touchdown, Russel Wilson throwing for over 297.5 yards, Dolphins to cover -1.5, Bengals with +7, Washington Football Team with +3.5, and Kyler Murray to run in at least two touchdowns.

A great return for a ticket with limited question marks and fewer legs than most tickets with these type of odds. It could also be used to set up a much bigger and less controlled parlay bet…