Nov
21
2020

My Big Fat Parlay Bet – NFL Week 11

I am so incredibly frustrated with last week’s tickets, with all but a few of them being a leg away from hitting. I very much want to play Demon Souls, and also play with the fancy PS5 controllers, so I need one of these tickets to hit.

I will say, my wildest prediction last week of Kyler Murray running in two touchdowns hitting has only served to make me bolder and really continue to widdle away at my self-control. However, we will stay reasonable and continue to aim for our goal.

We are returning to our 1500 dollar goal because the 2000 mark was a weird target in that it was too much money for a seven-leg same game parlay.

The Obvious Tickets

You know the drill.

Spread ticket, eight leg parlay, 10 dollars in, 1726.27 dollars out. We have the Saints covering 3.5 points, Panthers with 2.5 points, Texans with 1.5 points, Browns covering 2.5 points, Jaguars with 10.5 points, Dolphins covering 3.5 points, Rams with 4 points, and the Chiefs covering 8 points. If you want an extra leg, or need to replace one of these legs you do not feel very comfortable with, the Vikings covering against the Cowboys seems like a safe bet too.

The Over/Under ticket is eight legs, turning 10 dollars into 1897.17 dollars. It has the Falcons/Saints going over 49 points, Patriots/Texans going under 49 points, Eagles/Browns under 47.5 points, Steelers/Jaguars over 46 points, Dolphins/Broncos under 45.5 points, Packers/Colts under 51 points, Chiefs/Raiders under 56.5 points, Rams/Buccaneers over 48.5 points. This is a really safe ticket, even if I do not normally trust over/under cards. I especially like the Chiefs/Raiders, Steelers/Jaguars, Patriots/Texans, and Dolphins/Broncos legs.

The mixed ticket is super safe that if I could bet in my state of residence, I would bet on this ticket. It turns 10 dollars into 1703.35 dollars on eight legs. Those legs are Panthers with 2.5 points, Patriots/Texans under 49 points, Browns covering 2.5 points, Steeler/Jaguars over 46 points, Dolphins covering 3.5 points, Chiefs/Raiders under 56.5 points, Rams with 4 points, Packers/Colts under 51 points. I am really feeling the under on those high over/under totals, so those are a great base to build on.

Same Game Tickets

Let’s start with the Chiefs/Raiders Sunday Night Football game, as it is the first time in quite a while that I have looked forward to a Sunday night game. We have already seen this matchup once this season, so we have a template to base our predictions on.

I like Tyreek Hill in this matchup, based on how well he did in their last game, Johnathan Abrams missing practice all week, and how unsportsmanlike and physical Abrams was to Hill in that prior game.

This ticket is built on six legs, and it turns 10 dollars into 1930.54 dollars, with the legs being: total score under 56.5 points, Mahomes tossing for over 298.5 yards, Kansas City to win by 1 to 13 points, Patrick Mahomes to run in a touchdown, Josh Jacobs to run in a touchdown, and Tyreek Hill to have over 69.5 yards receiving. If you want to add in Josh Jacobs over his rushing total, that is another safe bet that would multiple the payout significantly.

I would also love to add Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce scoring a touchdown here, but Fanduel Sportsbook has almost every one of the Chiefs’ skill players listed as highly favorable to score, which is some of the most anti-bettor, anti-consumer lines I have ever seen.

There is also the Ravens and Titans game, which should be the Derrick Henry show. Derrick Henry lives in the Ravens’ defensive coordinator’s head rent-free and I fully expect him to embarrass the Ravens again.

So I built a six-leg parlay that turns 10 dollars into 1684.23 dollars, dependent on Derrick Henry scoring a touchdown, in the first half, before anyone else scores a touchdown, but rushing for less than 87.5 yards total. To round it out, I have Mark Andrews also scoring a touchdown, but the Titans winning by 1 to 13 points.

I love these props for Henry against the Ravens defense, with the only serious question for me being the first touchdown score.

The Ultimate Tickets

Okay, so last week we were so close to landing this ticket that I am making it my personal responsibility to make this one land this week. I do not care if I have to put on a helmet, go to a stadium and make something happen myself, I will have success.

Last week’s ticket was six legs, thanks to the high return bet on Kyler Murray scoring two touchdowns on the ground. This week, I wanted to build a ticket that focused specifically on those high risk/high reward legs. So I built a three-leg parlay bet that turns 10 dollars into 1,550 dollars, dependent on Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, and Tyreek Hill all scoring two touchdowns apiece. It is a little high risk, especially Tyreek Hill (I like him for one touchdown, but he rarely scores twice in one game), but I think it’s somewhere around 40% possible and that’s a risk I think that is worth taking.

However, if we wanted to build a higher quantity, lower risk parlay, I put one of those together as well.

But I turned the self control off.

This bet is a 13-leg ticket, one per game, and it turns 10 dollars into 67254.15 dollars. It has Josh Jacobs scoring a touchdown, Kareem Hunt scoring a touchdown, Darrel Henderson scoring a touchdown, Taysom Hill under 160.5 yards passing, Panthers with 2.5 points, Big Ben Roethlisberger throwing for over 275.5 yards, Derrick Henry scoring a touchdown, Dolphins covering 3.5 points, Packers/Colts under 51.5 points, Dalvin Cook scoring a touchdown, Football Team covering 1.5 points, Patriots/Texans under 49 points, and Hunter Henry scoring a touchdown.

That is some big money, and if someone happens to bet on it and win, feel free to hit my Venmo with a small commission.