Dec
12
2020

My Big Fat Parlay Bet – NFL Week 14

We are running out of weeks to hit an NFL parlay bet, so we have to hit soon. We are going to get a little desperate and put together a bit more tickets each week.

So we have to jump right into it immediately because we do not have time to waste.

The Obvious Ticket

The spread ticket is made up of eight legs, with +18940 odds (10 dollars into 1894.40 dollars). Those legs are Cardinals to cover -3, Cowboys to cover -3.5, Texans to cover -1.5, Colts to cover -3, Jets with +13.5, Chargers with +1.5, Bills to cover -1.5, Browns with +2.5. This is a great ticket, with a ton of great bets: the Cardinals are playing a mediocre Giants defense and offense led by Colt Mccoy, the Cowboys are playing the hurt and no longer contending Bengals, the Colts are playing the Raiders that almost dropped a game last week to the Jets, the Jets (who almost beat the Raiders) are playing a Seahawks team that has been playing very bad football, the Chargers are coming off of one of the most embarrassing games I have ever seen and played a Falcons team that is so inconsistent it is embarrassing, the Bills are playing against a Steelers team that only has one healthy linebacker, and the Browns are one of the best rushing teams in the league against one of the worst rush defenses in the league in the Ravens (It genuinely baffles me as to why the Browns are the underdog).

The over/under ticket is built on eight legs, with +18715 odds (10 dollars into 1871.50 dollars). The legs are Cowboys/Bengals over 42.5 points, Bears/Texans under 45.5 points, Raiders/Colts under 51.5 points, Jets/Seahawks over 47.5 points, Lions/Packers under 55.5 points, Saints/Eagles over 43 points, Steelers/Bills over 48 points, and Ravens/Browns over 47.5 points. If you read these pieces from week to week you know how much I despise over/under bets, however, I feel comfortable with this ticket. Neither the Bengals nor Cowboys can stop an offense, the Bears offense is a manual truck without a clutch, the Colts defense is going to eat the Raiders, why are the Packers/Lions o/u so high, Steelers and Bills do not have defenses to stop each other’s great offense.

The mixed ticket has 8 legs, with +17811 odds (turns 10 dollars into 1781.10 dollars). The legs are: Cardinals to cover -3, Cowboys/Bengals over 42.5 points, Texans to cover -1.5, Colts to cover -3, Chargers with +1.5 points, Lions/Packers under 55.5 points, Bills to cover -1.5, and Browns with +2.5 points. I love this ticket because there are so many easy bets throughout it.

Single Game Tickets

Let’s get on with the tradition; The Kansas City Chiefs are playing the Miami Dolphins this weekend, which is maybe my favorite game of the weekend.

There are only five props in this bet, which is fewer than normal but is still pretty safe. The Chiefs love to let quarterbacks run all over them, partially because their linebacker group is terrible (although this weekend, Willie Gay Jr. will be getting more snaps in the absence of Damien Wilson, and he has experience chasing down Tua) so we are gonna give Tua a rushing touchdown. From there, let’s give the Dolphins another short passing touchdown that attacks the linebackers, specifically to Devante Parker. From there, I like Travis Kelce to keep his historic season going with another touchdown, Le’veon Bell to keep building on his momentum from last week with a touchdown, and Tua Tagovailoa to throw for over 234.5 yards (Tyrann Mathieu is questionable and the Chiefs’ secondary is otherwise… yikes). This ticket will turn ten dollars into 1439.40 dollars and honestly feels very safe for its payouts.

We have another great game this weekend when the Raiders meet the Colts. The Colts defense should eat the Raiders’ offense, with the great defensive line and linebacker core likely to completely erase Josh Jacobs from this game. The Raiders’ secondary is questionable, so I also expect Phillip Rivers to prey on the Raiders once again.

So, I built an eight leg parlay ticket, with +19302 odds (turning ten dollars into 1930.20 dollars). The legs are: TY Hilton scoring a touchdown, Josh Jacobs scoring a touchdown, Johnathon Taylor scoring a touchdown, Derek Carr under 246.5 yards passing, Darren Waller under 60.5 yards receiving, Nelson Agholor under 41.5 yards receiving, TY Hilton over 53.5 yard receiving, and Indy to win and cover the spread. This is a great ticket that I think is likely to hit, especially after the Raiders’ performance last week.

I really want to talk about the Browns and Ravens game here, but Fanduel has said no parlay bets for that game. If they open them up on Sunday afternoon or something, check my Twitter account (@byronborefsmith) and I will provide you a ticket.

The Ultimate Tickets

So I got a little creative this week, building multiple fun and unique tickets for you to get into, along with my traditional ultimate ticket.

The first ticket I built is a running QB ticket, built on QBs getting in the endzone using their feet. It has only four legs, with +15509 odds (ten dollars into 1550.90 dollars), with the legs being: Deshaun Watson to score a touchdown, Russel Wilson to score a touchdown, Kyler Murray running one in, and Tua Tagovailoa scoring with his feet.

I built a ticket as well built on alternative spreads, changing around some spreads so that I can build further on favorable odds. It has 5 legs, with +28278 odds (ten dollars into 2827.84 dollars) with the legs being: Buffalo covering 7.5 points, Indy covering 6.5 points, Cleveland covering 6.5 points, Miami with 1.5 points, New York Jets with 7.5 points.

Finally, I have my ultimate ticket. It is seven legs long, with +19260 odds (ten dollars into 1925.99 dollars). The legs are: Tua runs in a touchdown, Josh Jacobs scoring a touchdown, Derrick Henry scoring a touchdown, Jets with 13.5 points, Bills to cover 1.5 points, Cleveland with 2.5 points, and Mike Davis to score a touchdown. I like all of these legs and think this is one of the best tickets I have built.

Author’s Note: All odds are provided by Fanduel Sportsbook. Bet at your own risk.