Okay, so normally we have a ton of space to move around in for our picks, but this week (and also next week) the NFL is doing two games on Saturday so we go down to having only 12 games on Sunday. So for that reason, we are going to have to take some chances that I would not take otherwise.
For that reason, I have decided that this week I am going to lean into those daring and less safe odds. We are going to talk ourselves into some crazy bets, and for that reason, we are going to abandon the old style we had for a week and try something a little different. This will also help moving forward, since we will be transitioning to cover NBA games soon.
So we are going to get right into it.
Author’s Note: Bet at your own risk. All odds provided by Fanduel Sportsbook!
High odds/Safe bets
We get to kick it off talking about my favorite parlay stuffers, players scoring touchdowns. Because we will not be doing the single game tickets, we have to skip over the Kansas City game (despite it being another exciting matchup, this time with the Saints) so we are going to start with a KC player who is definitely putting the ball in the endzone.
I would love to give touchdowns to multiple receivers this week because the Saints secondary is more suspect then a bad Among Us player. Tyreek Hill could have a huge game down the field, Sammy Watkins could capitalize on all of the attention that Travis Kelce and Hill are going to get, Mecole Hardman is finally starting to turn his season around and could get one this game. However, we are talking about the Chiefs, and no player is more likely to score for the defending champions then the best tight end in the game, Travis Kelce. Kelce’s ability to get open makes him Mahomes’ favorite target, and his ability to make the first guy miss with regularity is how he been able to consistently have high yardage game after high yardage game. In this game, the New Orleans Saints defensive line is going to be able to get after Mahomes, making him scramble all over the place and need targets who can get open, which just happens to be Kelce’s speciality. So give me Kelce scoring a touchdown at -115 to start the ticket.
The next player that I am certain is finding the endzone this week is Tennessee’s Derrick Henry. I do not feel like I have to expand on that because it is pretty self explanatory, but I will. The Titans are playing the Lions, a team with a suspect front seven, in December, the month where Derrick Henry starts eating people. It is late season, defenses and bodies are worn down after weeks of abuse, and even at their healthiest, most players still can not tackle Henry. Give me Henry with a touchdown, listed at -250 on Fanduel.
So for my final high odds leg, I wanted to pick a spread so I could diversify the ticket a little bit. My focus finally landed on the Vikings/Bears game, where I picked the Bears with the spread (+8). This seems like an odd pick, due to how high I am on the Vikings right now, but it makes sense when considering the full context of the game. Not only is it a divisional game, but it is also going to have heavy consequences for who gets the seventh NFC playoff seed, something that the Bears coaching staff desperately needs. This game has “one score game” written all over it, and I feel really comfortable betting on that at -115.
Medium odds/Questionable bets
The Browns’ running backs are difficult to bet on, due to how they are used. Kareem Hunt is used as a reliever some weeks while Nick Chubb gets the payload, while other weeks Kareem Hunt and Chubb split the carries. So betting on either of them is always rough and hard to justify.
However, this week, I not only am betting on a Cleveland running back to score, I am betting on that back to be Kareem Hunt. The Browns are all but in the playoffs at this point, so I could definitely see the coaching staff choosing to rest their premier players more and more. That is going to mean more playing time for the second strings or relievers like Kareem Hunt. For that reason, I feel comfortable giving Hunt a touchdown this week at +135.
The other leg I am taking in this range is the over/under (woo..) for the Steelers/Bengals game; I typically despise over/under bets and typically avoid them like the plague (I am giving it like four or five months before I change that phrase to “Like the Coronavirus”), but this line is just too easy. The current over/under line is 40 points, which maybe the lowest line off the entire season, and for good reason. No modern NFL game is going to land under 40 points without some disaster or outside forces.
High Risk/High Reward Bets
Alright, so currently the ticket we have only has +2047 odds (10 dollars into $204.67) and that is not nearly as high as we need it. For Pete’s sake, even the government’s abysmal next stimuls bill is giving you more money than that, and they are essentially just giving you a Wendy’s 4 for 4. So we need to get those odds up.
Jalen Hurts is balling for the Eagles right now, and Carson Wentz’s job security for 2021 is coming into question. He gets to play this week against a terrible defense in the Arizona Cardinals, meaning he is likely to pop off. When a young quarterback pops off, their tight ends are normally the main recipient of that success, meaning Zach Ertz is likely to have a great game. I like giving him a touchdown this week, and at +305 odds, that fits perfectly in this category.
The next bet is another decision that contradicts some of my recent opinions and stances. I have been very high on the Dolphins in the second half of the season, even taking them to beat the Chiefs last week, so it would seem weird that I am taking the Patriots to win this week. Belichick versus a young team like the Dolphins is going to land Belichick every time, and not even my love for Flores and his team can make me overlook that. I took the Patriots to win by at least 1.5 points as an alternative spread, with +100 odds.
This last leg pushed my ticket to +17503 odds, which would turn 10 dollars into 1750.32 dollars, which is more then our weekly goal and almost triple what the government is going to give you. This is a great exchange on a seven leg ticket, and with justification for every leg, I lack questions for the ticket and could see myself betting on it.