Nov
07
2020

My Big Fat Parlay Bet – NFL Week 9

I could write up a huge, wordy intro again this week, but I am just going to point you to last week’s intro because I have not yet met my goal of turning 10 dollars into at least 1500 dollars. This is the last week before the PS5 and Xbox Series X drops, so this is my last chance.

However, this week I am committed to practicing self-control and trying to keep around 1500 and hopefully offer some safer bets. I am going to try and get a ton of potential 1500 dollars tickets in this article, so I am going to offer a little less insight on each ticket this week, but that has to do with the desperation to be right.

Author’s note: Bet at your own risk. All odds provided by Fanduel Sportsbook

The obvious tickets

So I built a ticket of over/unders, a ticket of spread bets, and a ticket with a mix. Shocker!

The over/under ticket has Falcons-Broncos under 50, Lions-Vikings under 50.5, Texans-Jaguars under 50.5, Giants-Football Team under 42.5, Seahawks-Bills over 54.5, Chiefs-Panthers over 52.5, Steelers-Cowboys under 43, and Patriots-Jets under 42. 10 dollars becomes 1812.14 with that ticket, and with very few question marks.

The spread ticket has Colts to cover -1.5, Broncos with the spread of +4.5, Seahawks to cover -3, Panthers with the spread of +10.5, Raiders with the spread of +1.5, Cardinals to cover -3.5, Steelers to cover -14.5, Patriots to cover -7.5. That ticket turns 10 dollars in 1527.42 dollars with really only the Steelers spread being the biggest question mark.

The spread-over/under mixed ticket has Colts to cover -1.5, Broncos with the spread of +4.5, Texans-Jaguars under 50.5, Seahawks to cover -3, Chiefs-Panthers over 52.5, Raiders with the spread of +1.5, Cardinals to cover -3.5, Patriots-Jets under 42. That ticket turns 10 dollars into 1689.61 and is probably the safest ticket I have built yet in this series.

Same game ticket builds

Firstly, one of my picks for the game of the week, the Bills and Seahawks noon matchup. Both of these teams defenses are nonexistent, unless you count DK Metcalf chasing down defenders “defense,” so I pounded any offensive over that I could find. I have the Seahawks covering the 3 point spread, both teams to combine for over 54.5 points, Tyler Lockett scoring a touchdown, DK Metcalf scoring a touchdown, Stefon Diggs scoring a touchdown, Josh Allen to throw for more than 277.5 yards, Russel Wilson to throw for over 295.5 yards, Stefon Diggs to go for over 77.5 yards, Tyler Lockett to go for over 73.5 yards, and Devin Singletary to grab more than 38.5 yards rushing. This ticket is on the larger size, turning 10 dollars into 1978.35, but unless one of these teams decides this is the week to build an elite defense, there are not very many question marks on this ticket.

The second game I looked into was the other potential game of the week matchup that is also a noon game between the Chiefs and Panthers. This should also be an offensive explosion, but at least the Chiefs’ pass defense is elite, so I had a few more limitations. I have the Panthers with the +10.5 point spread, both teams combining for over 52.5 points, Christian Mccaffrey scoring a touchdown, Travis Kelce scoring a touchdown, Clyde Edwards-Helaire to scoring a touchdown, Patrick Mahomes throwing for over 295.5 yards, Teddy Bridgewater throwing for under 276.5 yards, and Christian Mccaffrey to get over 51.5 yards rushing. This ticket turns 10 dollars into 1583.09 dollars, however, if you do not want to practice self-control, you could also include Clyde Edwards-Helaire getting over 57.5 yards rushing and 18.5 yards receiving because the Panthers are the worst teams against running backs both on the ground and through the air. That ticket turns 10 dollars into 4632.94 dollars and which could get you a nice new TV for your new consoles.

I also did a third same game parlay ticket for the Dolphins and Cardinals matchup, another game of the week candidate. Both of these teams have legitimate defenses that, even if a little bit inconsistent, could make for a great defensive battle. However, I do not think that either defense is going to be able to stop the pure adrenaline of the young QBs wanting to prove themselves. I have the Cardinals to cover the -3.5 point spread, Kyler Murray to run in a touchdown, Deandre Hopkins to grab a touchdown, Kyler Murray to throw for over 262.5 yards, Tua Tagovailoa to throw for over 234.5 yards, Deandre Hopkins to grab over 80.5 yards receiving, and Jordan Howard to rush for more than 32.5 yards. This ticket turns 10 dollars into 1720.68 dollars, although it can be manipulated in believable ways to be worth more or give about the same value with fewer legs.

The Frankenstein bet

So I took the lines I am most confident in for this week and put them into one bet, of course condensing it a bit to stay around 1500 dollars. I have Christian Mccaffrey scoring a touchdown (Chiefs are one of the worst run defenses in the league), Raiders with the +1.5 point spread (I really do not know why the Raiders are the underdog here, seems like a mistake honestly), Tyler Lockett to score a touchdown (the Lockett-Wilson connection has been unstoppable this season, so why is Lockett a plus +115 touchdown scorer), Kyler Murray to run in a touchdown (I can already see a goal line triple option), Mark Andrews to score a touchdown (Lamar Jackson is being embarrassed this season, so expect him to return to his favorite target last year for safety reasons), Jame Connor to run for more than 78.5 yards (they are playing the Cowboys), Ronald Jones to score a touchdown (I almost went with AB here, but I think this game is going to get one-sided pretty quick and Jones is going to get a good number of carries late in the game).

This ticket turns 10 dollars into 1627.18 dollars. If I was you, I would jump in there and get that ticket before Fanduel realizes some of those odds are so easy that it’s going to bankrupt them.