The game of last week was supposed to be the Cowboys against the Chargers. I, like many others, liked that game and all of its pieces quite a bit. That game was a complete dud. That was not the stack you wanted.
Also, if you didn’t have Derrick Henry you were completely dead. He went off and broke the slate. Needless to say, not a great week. However, we are back to figure out Week Three! Here are my NFL DFS picks and plays for Week Three:
Disclaimer: We are not financial advisors. Bet at your own risk
Lamar Jackson $7,800
Jackson is my favorite QB play of the week. This week Baltimore faces off with the Detroit Lions. The Ravens have one of the highest implied team totals per Vegas lines. Also, the Detroit Lions are 29th per DVOA against the run and 32nd per DVOA against the pass. Jackson has 12 and 16 carries in his first two games and a rushing TD in each game. This is a potential smash spot for Jackson. The offense runs through him and he is going to get a ton of huge play opportunities against this beat-up Lions’ secondary.
Matt Stafford $6,400
The Rams play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week in one of the highest over/under games on the week. The total for this game is 55.5 points, which is tied for the highest number with a couple of other games. Going back to last year we have seen that teams just cannot run on the Bucs defense. So far this year teams have barely even tried. Dak Prescott had 58 pass attempts the first week and Matt Ryan had 46 the next. If Stafford is going to attempt that many passes just sign me up. Volume is king in fantasy and that is what I am expecting from Stafford and the Rams.
Mike Davis $5,100
A lot of people are down on Davis in re-draft leagues. He hasn’t produced at a number 1 RB rate thus far this season. He had a bad matchup last week, where he faced the Bucs. This week the matchup gets much easier. He matches up against the Giants’ defense. The Giants are 30th per DVOA in rush defense. On top of that, he has six and seven targets in his first two games. Davis has a great opportunity at his price tag to at least create 3x value.
Joe Mixon $6,300
I don’t think anyone was expecting the amount of volume Mixon has gotten in his first two games. In his first game, he had 29 carries and four targets. In his second game, he had 20 carries and 2 targets. The Bengals play the Steelers this week and that might keep some people off of him. However, the Steelers’ defense is banged up right now. It also seems like the Bengals are bringing Joe Burrow back slowly from his knee injury and really relying on Mixon to carry the load until Burrow is completely healthy. I like that trend to continue again this week.
Marquise Brown $5,600
If I love the QB, which I do, I am going to need to stack him up with someone and that someone is Brown. Brown has been awesome in the first two weeks of the season. He has the quietest 17 targets and two touchdowns in the league. Last week he had 10 targets against the Chiefs and Jackson was consistently looking for him. As I mentioned when talking about Lamar Jackson, the Lions’ defense is really bad against the pass. Unfortunately for them, they lost their other starting CB the other night against the Packers as well. So they will be out both starting CBs in an already bad secondary. Fire up some big plays, Hollywood!
Robert Woods $5,700
Like I did with Jackson and Brown, I am going to stack up Woods with Stafford. There is no question that Cooper Kupp has been dominating for the Rams. However, Woods is still a vital portion of that offense. He is also coming off a nine-target game. Additionally, he always gets one or two rushes every single week. If you watched my DFS show for the week, and if you haven’t, what are you waiting for?, I am going to continue to hammer this point home. If the Rams are going to throw 45 plus times I want pieces of that offense.
TJ Hockenson $5,200
Hockenson is a great bring-back option in that Ravens stack. He has received 20 targets in the first two games. He is a primary option for Jared Goff and especially in the red zone. Against the Packers, on Monday night the Lions ran a nice pick play to find him in the back of the end zone. He comes in at a nice price too. You are getting huge volumes like the Travis Kelce and Darren Waller’s of the world at a discounted price. Also, the Lions are big dogs in this game and that could lead to more passing volume.
Chris Manhertz $2,700
Here is your punt play of the week. Manhertz is taking the starting role for James O’Shaughnessy with the Jaguars because he is injured and won’t be playing. The Jaguars are going to be down in this game and maybe Manhertz can catch four balls and find his way into the endzone.
Tennessee Titans $2,400
The Titans’ defense isn’t great, but they get a great matchup at a cheap price this week. They are going to be facing Jacob Eason in his first start against the Indianapolis Colts. This is strictly hoping that Eason turns it over a few times and maybe the Titans return one of them for a TD.
This week is a really interesting one in the sense that there are going to be some very popular games that you are going to have to decide what to do with them. The Chiefs v Chargers, Rams v Bucs, and Seahawks v Vikings are the three highest game totals on the board. I am going to have pieces from all of these games.
My three favorite stacks are Ravens, Rams, and Cardinals. It is just too hard to get away from Kyler Murray and Deandre Hopkins against the Jaguars. I am going to focus on these three stacks and mix in pieces from Chiefs, Chargers, Seahawks, and Vikings.
Make sure you are checking out the Ballin’ Over Beers YouTube page. Every week we do a betting and DFS show. Also, follow me on Twitter @jdiz1617 and Ballin’ Over Beers: A fantasy and betting show @BallinOver.
Good luck everyone!