We are back this week with more picks! We’re coming off of a positive week both ATS and on over/unders, coming in at 7-6 and 9-4 respectively, with a couple of CLOSE misses (DEN +2.5 HURTS, man). We did hit our LOCK of the week last week with TEN +5.5, bringing our YTD record there to 3-2-1. We’re still hanging around .500, so let’s have another strong week and get positive on the season.
Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook on 10/27. Picks are not gambling advice. Gamble at your own risk.
Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals -6.5, o/u 50.5
I live by a simple motto when it comes to betting Green Bay games; never bet against Aaron Rodgers getting points. Now, I fully think ARI wins this game, but even without Devante Adams, 6.5 is way to many points to give GB. Take GB and the points.
The pick: GB +6.5, OVER 50.5
Tennessee Titans -1 at Indianapolis Colts, o/u 50.5
Is there a hotter team in football than the Titans right now? You’d be hard pressed to convince me otherwise. That being said, sweeping a divisional opponent is no easy feat. Indianapolis is on a streak of good play themselves, so this has the makings of a game of the week type game. I like the Titans to continue their roll and take a commanding lead in the division, but it could really go either way.
The pick: TEN -1, OVER 50.5
Cincinnati Bengals -10 At New York Jets, o/u 43
Now if there is a hotter team than the Titans, it’s the Bengals coming off of their beatdown of Baltimore in week seven. Their offense is humming right now, and I don’t see anyway New York slows them down. Factor in Zach Wilson being out for NYJ and geez. Ride Cincinnati.
The pick: CIN -10, UNDER 43
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills -14, o/u 49
And now to the opposite end of the spectrum, the Dolphins are ice cold. Meanwhile, Buffalo is coming out of the bye and off of a disappointing loss to Tennessee ion Monday Night Football two weeks ago. This has the makings of a bloodbath.
The pick: BUF -14, UNDER 49
Los Angeles Rams -14 at Houston Texans, o/u 47.5
Three straight double digit spread is gross. But they’re all warranted, these are all extremely lopsided games. I just can’t see anyway Houston keeps this close.
The pick: LAR -14, UNDER 47.5
Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 at Detroit Lions, o/u 48.5
I kinda like Detroit here? That’s not something I thought I’d say coming into this week. But Detroit is coming off of their best performance of the year, while Philly is coming off of a double digit loss to the Raiders. Detroit isn’t going 0-17, and this is one of the better shots they have at a win this year. Let’s ride the Lions.
The pick: DET +3.5, UNDER 48.5
Pittsburg Steelers at Cleveland Browns -3.5, o/u 42
No Baker makes this tricky. Cleveland is the better team, no doubt. But missing their QB hurts. Keenum was fine last week, but he doesn’t offer the same ceiling they would have otherwise. I think this one is going to be very low scoring, the first one to 20 wins type game. The Steelers will keep it close enough to cover.
The pick: PIT +3.5, UNDER 42
San Francisco 49ers -3.5 at Chicago Bears, o/u 39.5
If you listen closely, you can still hear the sound of Justin Fields hitting the ground again. The rookie took an absolute beating last week against a talented Tampa Bay front. San Fran’s front isn’t on that same level, but they’re close. I don’t know how Chicago keep Fields clean enough to be in this game. 39 is a low total, but i think it’s about right here.
The pick: SF -3.5, UNDER 39.5
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons -3.5, o/u 45.5
As someone who was down on Darnold this offseason, I feel vindicated that he’s returned to his poor play. as he’s struggled, so has Carolina, and they look like a team who will be picking in the top-10 again this offseason. Meanwhile, Atlanta is (somehow?) 3-3 on the year, and coming off of a huge win last week, in which rookie TE Kyle Pitts looked like the best player on the field. Lay ATL and the points.
The pick: ATL-3.5, OVER 45.5
New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers -6, o/u 49
Holy smokes, New England just scored on the Jets again. In all seriousness, the Patriots offensive explosion was a wild one last week, hanging 54 on the Jets. I know it’s the Jets, but 54 against any NFL team is nothing to scoff at. The Chargers are coming off a bye at home, and I like them to cover, but I think we’ll see points, points and more points in this matchup.
The pick: LAC -6, OVER 49
Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks -3, o/u 43.5
THANK THE LORD we don’t have to see Geno Smith in primetime for another week. With Smith behind center, SEA is quickly learning just how valuable Russell Wilson actually is. Meanwhile, the Jaguars finally broke their 20-game losing streak last week in their home away from home. Oddly enough, I really like Jacksonville to keep it rolling and cover here, if not win outright for the second week in a row.
The pick: JAX +3, UNDER 43.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5.5 at New Orleans Saints, o/u 49.5
Tampa Bay is absolutely ROLLING right now. I don’t know that there is a team in football (including Arizona) that can hang with them. And with the lack of offense for the Saints- Free Jameis, btw- I don’t think 5.5 is enough points. It wouldn’t surprise me to see this line get up to 6.5 or 7 by Sunday.
The pick: TB -5.5, OVER 49.5
Washington Football Team at Denver Broncos -3, o/u 43.5
A game in which the best starting QB is Taylor Heinicke isn’t a game I’d like to watch. Denver is back to their lowly ways after their hot start, while Washington is underperforming mightily on both sides of the ball. I’m going to take the Broncos, purely for the fact that they’re in home, but what an ugly matchup.
The pick: DEN -3, OVER 43.5
Dallas Cowboys -3 at Minnesota Vikings, o/u 55
Personally do not get the love for the Vikings. Granted, I’ve always been low on Mike Zimmer coached teams, but they don’t do a single thing great. They run the ball well. Their passing game is decent. The defense is there. But nothing that puts them in the same tier as the Cowboys. The Cowboys are elite offensively. Doesn’t matter, run or pass, they’re the better team. Not to mention, Dak is worlds ahead of Kirk Cousins as a passer as well. 3 points is nowhere near enough and with that Dallas at -3 is my LOCK OF THE WEEK.
The pick: DAL -3, UNDER 55
New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs -9.5, o/u 52
Woof, Kansas City. Even though I picked against them as my lock of the week last week, I didn’t expect them to get blown out in the fashion they did. Meanwhile, New York is coming off of their own blowout win against CAR. I don’t think the Giants have a shot at winning, but I think they keep it close. Factor in KC’s 4-14 record ATS in their last 18 and… yeah.
The pick: New York Giants: +9.5, OVER 52
Picks for the week are locked in! Let’s get above that .500 mark and go on a run. As always, hit me up on Twitter and let me know what picks you’re tailing or fading at @j_noah53!
YTD: 46-46-1 ATS, 45-47 O/U, LOCKS OF THE WEEK: 3-2-1