Four weeks down, 14 more to go! We’re coming off of another positive week, going 9-7 against the spread last week, brining our year to date record against the spread up to 34-30. Let’s keep that positive trend going, and check out the lines for this week’s slate of games!
Lines from DraftKings Sportsbook as of 10/6. Gamble at your own risk.
Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) at Seattle Seahawks o/u 54.5
I can’t make heads or tails of this matchup. Coming into week four, these teams were headed in opposite directions, but they both flipped the script last week, with SEA beating SF and LAR losing to ARI. I’m leaning towards LAR in what could be a “get right” game, but betting against Russel Wilson never goes well. It should be a fun matchup to open up week five.
The pick: LAR -2.5, OVER 54.5
New York Jets at Atlanta Falcons (-3) o/u 46
J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS! Pulling off the upset of the week in week four, the Jets picked up their first win of the Robert Saleh era. Meanwhile, Atlanta just continues to find ways to lose, dropping what should have been another upset late against the WFT. I think the Jets ride their momentum from last week, and pull of the win outright in ATL.
The pick: NYJ +3, UNDER 46
Tennessee Titans (-4.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars o/u 48.5
I fully expected the headlines coming into this game to be about the Titans struggling against the Jets last week. At least, until I saw the reports about Urban Meyer already losing his locker room in Jacksonville. These are two baffling teams right now, but historically Derrick Henry has owned Jacksonville. I expect that to continue here.
The pick: TEN -4.5, UNDER 48.5
Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10) o/u 48
This line just feels way too long. I think Tampa Bay is the much better team. But 10 in an NFL game? That just seems rich against a Miami team that is pretty good, record aside. Road dogs have been killing is against the spread this year, and I think that trend continues here.
The pick: MIA +10, UNDER 48
Green Bay Packers (-3) at Cincinnati Bengals o/u 51
This is another line that is just too easy for me. Green Bay is absolutely rolling right now, Aaron Rodgers is well into another MVP campaign, and that defense is starting to figure somethings out. I do really like the Bengals, and think they’re a fringe playoff team in the AFC, but Green Bay is a Super Bowl contender, not a playoff hopefully. Grab this line before it creeps up further, it’s coming in as my LOCK OF THE WEEK.
The pick: GB -3, OVER 51
New England Patriots (-8.5) at Houston Texans o/u 39.5
Last week I was torn on taking Houston getting 16.5 points. I chose to fade them, and they proceeded to get absolutely demolished. They’re going to be a fade until further notice. Take NE here.
The pick: NE -8.5, UNDER 39.5
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-9) o/u 49.5
I thought Detroit would handle Chicago pretty easily last week. Instead, they let Chicago run all over them in route to losing by double digits. Minnesota runs the ball even better than CHI. Dalvin Cook is in line for a field day.
The pick: MIN -9, UNDER 49.5
Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers (-3.5) o/u 45
Philly’s offense is so much fun. Jalen Hurts is a top five fantasy QB right now, and they’re scoring points. The problem is Consistency with Hurts still being inexperienced, and Carolina’s D thrives on confusing young QBs. As much as I’d love to take PHI getting points, I just can’t justify it.
The pick: CAR -3.5, OVER 45
Denver Broncos at Pittsburg Steelers (-1) o/u 39.5
I’m picking this game with the assumption that Teddy Bridgewater will be cleared to go Sunday. If so, he’s the best QB on the field. If Drew Lock starts for DEN, this pick changes, but I like DEN with Teddy Two-Gloves to go into PIT and grab the win against a struggling Steeler offense.
The pick: DEN +1, UNDER 39.5
New Orleans Saints (-2) at Washington Football Team o/u 45
I absolutely hate betting on either of these teams at this point. They’ve both burned me every week, and I’m again at a loss for which way to go here. My gut feeling at first was WFT at home getting points, so I’m going to go NO on the road. Either way, this is one pick I’m not confident in.
The pick: NO-2, OVER 45
Chicago Bears at Las Vegas Raiders (-5) o/u 44
The first thing jumping out to me is how low that total looks. 44 is just a 24-21 game, which these teams are both more than capable of. My question here is which Derek Carr shows up? The MVP frontrunner through three weeks, or the timid QB we saw in week four? I’m going to ride with the larger sample size and say Carr has a bounce back game here.
The pick: LVR -5, OVER 44
Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) o/u 46
Cleveland’s defense has been lights out the last two weeks. And while the Chargers have been able to move the ball seemingly at will, the only time they’ve been derailed is when the defense gets pressure with their front four. And guess what Cleveland is best at? You guessed it. I like CLE to pull off the upset here.
The pick: CLE +1.5, UNDER 46
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-7) o/u 52.5
Dallas has started the year off 4-0 ATS, after going 5-11 last season. It starts with Dak Prescott being back and keeping the offense humming. And while I really like DAL, NFC East divisional games are generally drunk. I’m going to take the G-men to cover here, but DAL to get the win.
The pick: NYG +7, OVER 52.5
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-5.5) o/u 49.5
I’ve been looking forward to seeing Trey Lance in SF all season. Now that we’ve seen him in action… maybe SF is right to keep the training wheels on. He may be the long term guy, but he’s not it right now. Meanwhile, Arizona is rolling, and Kyler is continuing his ascension to the upper echelon of QBs. I’m riding ARI here.
The pick: ARI -5.5, OVER 49.5
Buffalo Bills at Kansa City Chiefs (-2.5) o/u 56.5
This is the matchup I’m most looking forward to this weekend. The two best offenses in the AFC squariing off in primetime is just *chef’s kiss.* I think Buffalo has the more complete team right now, but KC is against the ropes. I think KC will pull it out, but Buffalo is going to cover in this one, one way or another.
The pick: BUF +2.5, OVER 56.5
Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) o/u 45.5
Y’all remember when people said to beat Lamar, you have to keep him in the pocket? Those were good times. Lamar is continuing to grow as a passer, and as a little prop nugget his passing yards over is 4-0 on the year. Baltimore is the much better team here, and they should handle business at home.
The pick: BAL -6.5, OVER 45.5
There you have it! we’re on an upward trend, here’s to hoping it keeps climbing. As always, hit me on Twitter and let me know what picks you’re tailing or fading!
YTD: ATS 34-30, O/U 31-33, LOCKS OF THE WEEK 2-2.