It’s Thursday again, so we are back with my picks for week four in the NFL! Coming off of a better week last week than we had been having, with a 9-7 record against the spread, and 10-6 on over/under. My lock of the week was a bust in Week Three (Bucs, wyd?), but we’re here looking for a bounce-back this week. Let’s get into it.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of 9/29. Gamble at your own risk.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) o/u 46
Starting week four with a rematch of 2019’s College Football Playoff National Championship at quarterback. Joe Burrow got the better of Trevor Lawrence in that matchup. Here I expect a Cincinnati win, but 7.5 is a long line for two teams that haven’t been good offensively. This will be a typical clunker of a TNF game, but it’ll be close. Give me JAX and the points.
The pick: JAX +7.5, UNDER 46
Tennessee Titans (-7) at New York Jets o/u 45.5
With news coming out Wednesday that both AJ Brown and Julio Jones could miss this game, the line has begun dropping rapidly. It was as high as ten at one point, now creeping its way down into the one range. I would have taken it at 10, regardless of the status of Jones and Brown. Anything lower than that is free money. The Jets are a dumpster fire, and won’t be able to slow down the Titans rushing game.
The pick: TEN -7, UNDER 45.5
Kansas City (-7) at Philadelphia Eagles o/u 54
Kansas City has to be due for a get-right game. The back-to-back AFC Champions is in a rut right now, coming off of three tough games to open the year. This is the first game against one of the lesser teams in the NFL and they should dominate this game wire to wire. I’ve already grabbed this line at 7.5 this week, but KC -7 is going to come in as my lock of the week this week.
The pick: KC -7, OVER 54
Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys (-4) o/u 50.5
This is a sneaky good matchup in the early slate Sunday. CAR has been one of the surprises of the year so far, and Dallas’s offense has been everything we had hoped it would be coming into the year. This line is hovering right around four but would be a fantastic one to tease either way. I’m taking DAL-4, but this one is a true toss-up.
The pick: DAL -4, UNDER 50.5
Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills (-16.5) o/u 47
There are big lines, and then there are BIG lines. This qualifies as a BIG line that I’m honestly on the fence about. I never like taking lines over 13.5 at most, but man Houston is bad, and Buffalo looks like world beaters after last week. As much as I hate taking this heavy of a favorite, I’m leaning BUF -16.5 in a game that doesn’t reach the total, but I don’t like it one bit.
The pick: BUF -16.5, UNDER 47
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints (-7.5) o/u 42
I have missed on the Saints every single week so far. They’re an infuriating team to try to gamble on. However they’re starting to get healthy, and the Giants are coming off of a disgusting loss to Atlanta at home. I expect the Saints to win this game pretty handily, which means they’ll probably lose somehow. Nonetheless, I’m riding NO this week.
The pick: NO -7.5, OVER 42
Cleveland Browns (-2) at Minnesota Vikings o/u 51.5
Helloooooo Minnesota! They took me by surprise last week, beating the Seahawks pretty easily even without Dalvin Cook. With them getting Cook back, their outlook this week is pretty nice. However Cleveland is establishing itself as a legitimate AFC contender, and that defense looked very good against CHI. I’m going to take Cleveland here, but I wouldn’t be shocked if MIN rides that momentum gained from last week and pulls off the win at home.
The pick: CLE -2, OVER 51.5
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-3) o/u 42
Can someone explain how the Bears are the favorite here? Detroit too Baltimore down to the wire last week, with it taking a literal record-breaking kick from Justin Tucker for Baltimore to win. Meanwhile, Chicago looked like a MAC team trying to run offense against CLE in week 2. I am hammering DET +3 here, and I’m grabbing the ML at plus odds as well.
The pick: DET +3, UNDER 42
Washington Football Team (-2) at Atlanta Falcons o/u 47
Washington has burned me two weeks in a row, with last week being just pathetic. For a team lauded for its front seven, they were manhandled last week. That being said, this has the making of a get-right game all over it. ATL has been rough on both sides of the ball, and I see no reasons while those struggles don’t continue here.
The pick: WAS -2, UNDER 47
Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins (-2) o/u 42.5
I cannot decide how to bet on this game. The teams are headed in opposite directions, with Indy losing to TEN in a game that wasn’t as close as the score indicated, and Miami going down to the wire with the undefeated Raiders. However, Frank Reich is too good of a coach to start 0-4, and I don’t trust Jacoby Brissett quite enough. I’m going to take IND +2, but could easily be persuaded to go the opposite way as well.
The pick: IND +2, UNDER 42.5
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-4) o/u 55
The Rams outright embarrassed the defending champs last week. They’re the hottest team in football right now, no doubt. I can’t help but lean their direction in this one. The more intriguing bet to me is the total of 55. These offenses have both shown the propensity to explode with no notice, so I’m going to be all over that total to come in over 55.
The pick: LAR -4, OVER 55
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-3) o/u 51.5
there’s no way to sugarcoat it, SEA’s defense is bad. In a good division like the NFC West, that’s going to be a handcuff that keeps them from competing consistently. Coming off of a game they easily could have won last Monday Night, I like Sf to bounce back and try to keep within striking distance of the Rams and Cardinals.
The pick: SF -3, UNDER 51.5
Pittsburg Steelers at Green Bay Packers (-6.5) o/u 46
Do you remember when Pittsburg was 11-0 and rolling through the AFC in 2020? Pepperidge Farm remembers. Long gone is that team. Now they’re a middling team with a washed-up QB and a defense that’s starting to miss pieces in a bad way. It’s a recipe for disaster. I just don’t see a way they score enough to keep pace with Rodgers and the humming GB offense.
The pick: GB -6.5, OVER 46
Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-1) o/u 45
It’s time to see if Denver is for real or not. Their 3 wins are against teams with a combined 0-9 record so far. It’s been easy for them, to say the least. While Baltimore is coming off of a near trap game against DET after riding high off of their huge week two win. I am more in the camp of DEN being a pretender, rather than a contender.
The pick: BAL +1, OVER 45
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7) at New England Patriots o/u 49
The headline of this game is obvious. Tom Brady’s return to New England after a 2 decade run there is must-see TV. Factor in Tampa Bay coming off of a beatdown in LA, plus Mac Jones and NE’s offense looking inept last week, and I think this has the makings of a true bloodbath on Sunday night. Ride Tampa, folks.
The pick: TB -7, OVER 49
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) o/u 52
Two of the hottest teams in football meeting on Monday night with a chance to take an early divisional lead. You simply cannot ask for better circumstances for an MNF game. I like that Chargers a lot to win this game, but man, 3.5 seems long for a game that can go either way. If this line creeps down to 2.5 or so, I’ll take LAC. but for now, let’s take the undefeated Raiders to at least cover the 3.5.
The pick: LVR +3.5, OVER 52
There you have it! this week’s picks, locked and loaded. Let me know what you’re trailing, what your fading and either way let’s have some fun rolling into week four action.
YTD: ATS 25-23, O/U 25-23, LOCK OF THE WEEK 1-2