We’re back for week 2! Last week didn’t turn out how’d I’d hoped, coming in at an even 8-8 against the spread, 7-9 on over/unders, and my lock of the week coming up 0-1 (had Baltimore went for the win in regulation instead of playing for the FG, it’d be a different story, but here we are). Let’s jump right in, and get a solid streak going!
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook on 9/15:
Disclaimer: We are not financial advisors. Bet at your OWN RISK
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New York Giants at Washington Football Team (-3.5) o/u 40.5
Where week one started with the best match-up of the weekend, week 2 is starting with a dud. In tpca TNF fashion, this game doesn’t really have much appeal to it. Neither offense is good, but Washington’s D is one of the better units in football. Give me WAS to cover in a low-scoring clunker.
The pick: WAS -3.5, UNDER 40.5
New Orleans Saints (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers o/u 45
Talk about a surprise performance out of New Orleans last week! The Saints trounced Green Bay in a game that was never really close. The Panthers struggled with the Jets last week, only pulling out the win by 5. I’m a huge Jameis Winston fan, so I’m going to take NO here to ride what they started last week.
The pick: NO -3.5, OVER 45
Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at Indianapolis Colts o/u 48.5
Boy oh boy, how fun was LA last week? They moved the ball at will against a good CHI defense. I don’t know that there’s a team out there that can stop LAR’s offense. Indy struggled on Sunday against Seattle, and I don’t know that their defense can slow LA down enough. Being in Indy does help, but only so much.
The pick: LAR -3.5, OVER 48.5
Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears (-2) o/u 44.5
After pulling the upset as +3 dogs last week, the Bengals are coming in again as an underdog. Chicago showed they’re not going to be completely anemic on offense with Andy Dalton at the helm, but I don’t think they’re a good team by any means. This is a close one, but give me Cinnci and the points.
The pick: CIN +2, OVER 44.5
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-12.5) o/u 50
Houston was the surprise of the week, completely manhandling the Jaguars. Cleveland is no such slouch. The Browns are coming off of giving the reigning AFC Champion Chiefs everything they could handle. 12.5 is a HUGE line for an NFL game, but I don’t see how Houston keeps it close.
The pick: CLE -12.5, UNDER 50
San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Philadelphia Eagles o/u 50
Personally grabbed this line as soon as they dropped on Sunday. Philly was great against Atlanta, but SF is a whole different animal. This is another game that I don’t see being particularly close. Give me SanFran to go across the country and grab the W and the cover.
The pick: SF -3.5, OVER 50
Buffalo Bills (-3.5) at Miami Dolphins o/u 47.5
Buffalo losing to Pittsburg was a shocker to me. They were completely outclassed in the second half of that game. While Miami squeaked out a win against New England in week 1. I can’t see Buffalo laying an egg 2 weeks in a row, but that travel from upstate NY to Miami is no joke. I think Miami keeps it close in a Buffalo win.
The pick: MIA +3.5, UNDER 47.5
Denver Broncos (-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars o/u 45
Jacksonville, woof. I don’t even know what to say about that disaster last week. they looked completely outclassed by the worst roster in football. Meanwhile, Denver looked damn good with Teddy Two Gloves behind center. Denver should beat Jacksonville handedly while staying well below that total.
The pick: DEN -6, UNDER 45
Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburg Steelers (-5.5) o/u 47
Ladies and gentlemen, introducing your 2021 passing yardage leader after week 1, DEREK CARR? No really, that’s not a typo. LAV somehow pulled out the win against the Ravens in week 1, and Carr is the main reason why. His performance was the best I think I’ve ever seen him play. That coupled with the fact that I don’t really buy Pittsburg, even after upsetting BUF in week one, make me lean towards LAV and the points.
The pick: LAV +5.5, OVER 47
New England Patriots (-6) at New York Jets o/u 42.5
This is another easy line for me. After buying into the Jets hype, they catch New England week 2. I don’t see rookie Zach Wilson really holding his own against New England’s defense. The best hop for Jets bettors is Mac jones also plays like a rookie and keeps it close. I think NE keeps the game plan simple, plays good defense, and wins somewhere in the 10-14 range.
The pick: NE -6, UNDER 42.5
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-12) o/u 52
Falcons fans, you aren’t going to like these weekly picks. I don’t see how, after that beatdown last week, I could ever bet on them. ATL is likely to be a team I fade all season unless proven otherwise. Give me Tompa Bay to handle ATL easily, but stay under the 52 point o/u.
The pick: TB -12, UNDER 52
Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals (-4) o/u 50.5
Arizona is the most surprising team to me after week 1. They flat out embarrassed the Titans at home in a game that was never close. Minnesota lost to a Bengals team that isn’t close to the same caliber as AZ. give me Kyler Murray to continue his campaign for MVP in 2021.
The pick: ARI -4, OVER 50.5
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) o/u 55
This is a line that’s going to see a lot of movement. at the time of writing, the line is at 3.5 leaning LA, but it wouldn’t surprise me if it ends up LAC -1.5 by kickoff Sunday. I really like Dallas getting the points. They gave Tampa Bay everything they could handle, and damn near pulled that game out. Either way, I see this game ending up well into the ’60s. Hammer the over.
The pick: DAL +3.5, OVER 55
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Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks (-5) o/u 54.5
The Titans laid the biggest egg of the season week 1, getting boat raced at home against Arizona. Meanwhile, Seattle went into Indy and handled their business as they should have. So why am I leaning TEN +5? Under Mike Vrabel, the Titans are 7-0 straight up when coming off of a double-digit loss. Seattle is a very good team, but I expect the Titans to keep with their current trend and at least be competitive. So much so that TEN +5 is my lock of the week.
The pick: TEN +5, OVER 54.5
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Baltimore Ravens o/u 54.5
This is going to be the game I’m most looking forward to watching this week. Two AFC powerhouses coming off of week 1 games that were disappointing for both? Sign me up, please. I’m taking KC to win and cover here, considering BAL is winless against KC in the Lamar Jackson era. Expect points, points, and more points in this one, though.
The pick: KC-3.5, OVER 54.5
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-11.5) o/u 48
This is a tricky line. 11.5 is a lot of points, and I think GB is the better team. But the Packers were a train wreck in week 1. I don’t think Detroit is very good, but they showed more in their matchup against SF than GB did against NO. I’m going to give Aaron Rodgers the benefit of the doubt one more time, but I’m steering very clear of this line, personally.
The pick: GB -11.5, OVER 48.
YEAR TO DATE: 8-8 ATS, O/U 7-9
As always, trail these picks at your own risk. But, if you do trail some of them, hit me on Twitter (@j_noah53) and let me know what you’re riding with, so we can sweat it out together!