Josh Allen is hurt. Everyone knows it. The man can barely grip the football with that right hand, his left knee looks questionable, and Buffalo just lost two wide receivers to season-ending injuries this week. Meanwhile, Sean Payton has had 14 days to scheme against him in a stadium the Bills haven't seen since getting demolished 31-7 here last January.
So why are the Bills still getting respect from Vegas?
The numbers tell a story bookmakers understand
Denver finished 14-3 and claimed the AFC's top seed for the first time in a decade. The defense led the league with 68 sacks. All-Pro defensive tackle Zach Allen recorded 47 quarterback hits — more than any interior lineman in recent memory. On paper, this should be a burial.
But here's the thing: the Broncos haven't beaten anyone of consequence in the playoffs since... well, since before Bo Nix was in high school. Sean Payton's last postseason win came against Mitchell Trubisky, not Josh Allen. That matters.
"I feel good. I feel better than I have in the last few weeks," Allen told reporters Thursday. Coming from a quarterback who once played through a separated shoulder and won, that's probably true enough.
What Payton admitted this week should worry Denver fans
The 62-year-old coach went unusually introspective during his press conferences. He talked about how he's naturally gotten more conservative with age, how his father's career in insurance claims made him risk-averse from childhood.
"I can't let that happen," Payton said about playing it safe. "I have to be daring at the right time. Quick. And decisive."
Translation: he knows his offense has been a problem. Denver scored just one touchdown in their final regular season game. They've been living off field goals and defensive stands for weeks now. Against Allen, that's not going to cut it.
The injury disparity is real — but maybe not decisive
Buffalo's situation looks grim on paper:
- WRs Gabe Davis and Tyrell Shavers on IR with knee injuries
- Safety Jordan Poyer ruled out with a hamstring
- CB Maxwell Hairston out with an ankle sprain
- Allen himself dealing with foot, knee, and hand issues
Denver's relatively healthy by comparison. Talanoa Hufanga and Dre Greenlaw — the free agent additions who transformed this defense — are good to go.
But here's what the injury report doesn't tell you: Allen has never missed a game due to injury since his rookie year in 2018. The man simply doesn't come out. "Country boy, out in the middle of nowhere," he explained. "My worst fear as a kid was missing games."
Tonight's second act: the 49ers have no business being here
While Denver and Buffalo settle old scores at 4:30 PM ET, the nightcap features an even more improbable matchup.
San Francisco limped into the playoffs as the sixth seed. They've lost George Kittle to a torn Achilles. Brock Purdy has been inconsistent. And yet they knocked off the defending champion Eagles last week on the road.
Seattle (14-3) earned the top seed and home field by beating these same 49ers 13-3 in Week 18. Mike Macdonald's defense held San Francisco to just 173 yards in that game — with Kittle playing.
"It's a little funky going against a team two games in a row," Macdonald acknowledged this week. "Kyle will have some stuff dialed up for us."
Sam Darnold is dealing with an oblique injury but is expected to play. If he does, Seattle should handle this. If he doesn't? Mac Jones is waiting. And nobody wants that.
The weekend that decides whether this season has a story
With Mahomes, Burrow, and Lamar all sitting home, the AFC playoffs feel strangely open. Allen has never been closer to a Super Bowl — and he's never been more banged up getting there.
Kickoff for Bills-Broncos is 4:30 PM ET on CBS. Seahawks-49ers follows at 8 PM ET on FOX.
Denver hasn't hosted a playoff game in ten years. The franchise's last home playoff win came in 2015, when Peyton Manning's defense carried them to Super Bowl 50. Whether Bo Nix and company can replicate that magic — or whether Allen can simply will his way to victory despite everything — will tell us what kind of postseason we're actually watching.