The NFL's final four is set. And honestly? This might be the strangest Conference Championship weekend we've seen in years.
On one side, you've got a Patriots team that was 4-13 last year—dead last, laughingstock territory—now two wins away from a Super Bowl. On the other, a Broncos squad that just watched its starting quarterback break his ankle with three plays left in overtime. Against the Bills. After leading a game-winning drive.
Football doesn't care about narratives. It just keeps punching.
The Nix situation is worse than you think
Let's start with the elephant in Mile High. Bo Nix fractured a bone in his right ankle on Saturday's second-to-last play—a designed QB run that lost two yards. He threw the go-ahead touchdown to Marvin Mims moments later anyway. Then Sean Payton had to deliver the news nobody wanted to hear.
"He's a tough cookie," Payton told reporters nearly 40 minutes after his initial postgame presser. He'd come back specifically to announce the injury. "I said to him, 'Listen, I believe you're the second quarterback in Year 2 to take your team to a championship game. And the first is Mahomes.'"
That's cold comfort when your season is over on a stretcher.
Nix finished the game 26-of-46 for 279 yards and three touchdowns. He'd just become the first QB not named Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow to beat Josh Allen in the playoffs this decade. And now? Surgery in Birmingham on Tuesday. Season done.
Jarrett Stidham takes over. If that name doesn't ring a bell, there's a reason: he hasn't thrown a single pass in either of the last two regular seasons. His last meaningful action came in 2023, when he started two games for the Broncos after Russell Wilson was benched. Before that? Two forgettable starts with the Raiders in 2022.
Payton's selling confidence. "Stiddy's ready to go," he said. "I feel like I've got a two that's capable of starting for a number of teams."
Maybe. But capable of winning an AFC Championship against this Patriots defense? That's a different question entirely.
New England's defense is a problem for everyone
The Patriots dismantled Houston 28-16 on Sunday. But that score flatters the Texans. C.J. Stroud threw four interceptions in the first half alone—including a pick-six by Marcus Jones—and finished with five turnovers total. He looked shell-shocked by the final whistle.
"I feel like I let people down," Stroud said afterward. Houston is now 0-7 all-time in the divisional round. The only franchise that's never reached a conference title game.
Drake Maye wasn't perfect either. He fumbled four times and lost two, largely thanks to Will Anderson terrorizing New England's offensive line. But Maye did what he needed to do: three touchdown passes, including a 32-yard one-handed grab by Kayshon Boutte in the fourth quarter that effectively ended it.
"We knew it was going to be a battle," Maye said. "Props to our defense. They played a hell of a game. We've got to protect the football better, but we made enough plays to win it."
That's the Patriots' formula now. Maye makes plays when he has to. The defense makes life miserable for everyone else.
Mike Vrabel has done something ridiculous
Here's a stat that should embarrass half the league: the Patriots went from 4-13 to 16-3 in one year. That's a ten-win improvement, which ties the NFL record. Mike Vrabel was passed over for six head coaching jobs last offseason—including, ironically, New England's first search—before the Patriots finally hired him in January 2025.
Now he's got them in the AFC Championship for the first time since 2018. The last time they were here, Tom Brady was still the quarterback.
"I'm always excited for our organization, excited for the players," Vrabel said after Sunday's win. "Everybody's stepping up, we're using everybody, everybody's making plays. I'm excited for these guys, but they're also not satisfied. I can tell that."
The man won three Super Bowls as a Patriots linebacker. He caught touchdowns in two of them—still the only defensive player to score in multiple Super Bowls. Now he's coaching the franchise back to relevance with a second-year quarterback and a defense that's allowing 14 points per game in the playoffs.
Vrabel doesn't do moral victories. He builds teams that win ugly when they have to. Sunday's game was ugly. New England won anyway.
The NFC is a different beast
While the AFC delivers drama, the NFC Championship might actually be the better football game. The Seahawks host the Rams for the third time this season. They split the regular season series. Both games were decided by single digits. Both came down to the final play.
Seattle rolled into the playoffs by destroying San Francisco 41-6 on Saturday. Rashid Shaheed returned the opening kickoff 95 yards for a touchdown, and it was essentially over from there. Kenneth Walker III rushed for 116 yards and three scores. Sam Darnold barely had to do anything—12 of 17 for 124 yards and a TD.
This is Seattle's first NFC Championship appearance in 11 years. The last time they made it this far, they won the Super Bowl.
The Rams took a harder road. Caleb Williams threw a miracle touchdown on fourth-and-four with 18 seconds left to force overtime against Los Angeles. Then he threw an interception in OT that set up Harrison Mevis' game-winning 42-yard field goal.
Matthew Stafford is the MVP favorite for a reason—4,707 passing yards, 46 touchdowns, only 8 interceptions—but he's also struggled in the last two weeks. Completion percentage under 52%. Five sacks. The Seahawks defense is the most dominant unit left in these playoffs, and they know exactly how to attack Stafford after seeing him twice already.
The Rams have collected seven turnovers in two games against Seattle this season while committing just one. That luck feels unsustainable.
What's at stake
The winners on Sunday go to Super Bowl LX at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara on February 8th. Bad Bunny headlines the halftime show. It's the first Super Bowl in the Bay Area since the 49ers hosted it a decade ago.
The losers go home wondering what might have been.
For Denver, it's the cruelest possible timing—finally back in the AFC Championship for the first time since Peyton Manning's final season, and their franchise QB is watching from a hospital bed.
For New England, it's validation. This was supposed to be a rebuild year. Nobody expected conference title game.
For Seattle, it's legacy. Pete Carroll built this franchise into a contender, but he's been gone for a year. Mike Macdonald's defense—coordinated by British playcaller Aden Durde—has taken over. They've allowed just 44 points to opponents other than the Rams over their last seven games.
For Los Angeles, it's another shot at the Lombardi Trophy. Stafford already has one ring. He'd like another.
Conference Championship schedule
AFC Championship: Patriots at Broncos — Sunday, January 25, 3:00 PM ET (CBS)
NFC Championship: Rams at Seahawks — Sunday, January 25, 6:30 PM ET (FOX)
Two games. Four teams. One weekend that decides everything.
And somewhere in Denver, Jarrett Stidham is preparing for the biggest moment of his career. Nobody's expecting him to win. Then again, nobody expected the Patriots to be here either.