I've been staring at the Super Bowl LX anytime touchdown scorer board for three days now, and I keep coming back to the same conclusion: the books want you to bet Kenneth Walker III at -195, and honestly, they might be right. That's the annoying part.
But there's more buried in this market than the obvious chalk. The Seahawks-Patriots rematch — eleven years after Malcolm Butler's goal-line pick broke Seattle's heart in Super Bowl XLIX — sets up some fascinating scoring dynamics that the oddsmakers haven't fully priced in.
Let me walk you through where the money should go. And where it absolutely shouldn't.
The chalk play that's actually worth it
Walker at -195 looks ugly. Nobody wants to lay juice like that on a prop. But here's the thing — this man has four touchdowns on 45 touches through three playoff games. He ripped apart the 49ers for 116 yards and three scores on 19 carries in the Divisional Round, becoming just the second Seahawk ever (after Shaun Alexander) to rush for three TDs in a playoff game.
And now? Zach Charbonnet is done for the year with a torn ACL suffered in that same 49ers game. Walker is the guy. Period. He handled 23 touches in the NFC Championship win over the Rams, scored the opening touchdown on a 2-yard run, and then iced the game with six of the first eight touches on Seattle's final clock-killing drive.
After that game, Walker didn't talk about stats. He said five words: "I just really want to win the Super Bowl." That's a man who knows Sunday might be his last game in a Seahawks jersey — he's a free agent after this. Pro Football Reference already has teams circling. When a running back is playing for a contract and a ring simultaneously, you bet the over on effort. The TDs tend to follow.
I don't love -195. But I'm not fading it either.
The play I actually love: Rashid Shaheed +350
This is the line that keeps pulling me back. Shaheed at +350 is the best value on the entire board, and it's not particularly close.
Since the Seahawks traded a fourth and fifth-round pick to get him from the Saints on November 4, Shaheed has been an absolute menace on special teams. He returned the opening kickoff against the 49ers 95 yards for a touchdown in the Divisional Round. Before that, he housed a 100-yard kick return against the Falcons in Week 14 and a 58-yard punt return TD against the Rams in Week 16 — the play that single-handedly kept Seattle's comeback alive in what became a 38-37 overtime thriller.
He's the only player in the NFL this season with both a kickoff return and punt return touchdown. His track background — his dad Haneef was a sprinter at Arizona State, his mom ran hurdles at San Diego — shows up every time he touches the ball in space. The Seahawks' special teams coordinator Jay Harbaugh (yes, Jim's son) has clearly built return schemes around Shaheed's speed.
At +350, you're getting a guy who has three special teams touchdowns in ten games with Seattle. The Patriots' coverage units will have their hands full, and it only takes one.
The redemption arc: Cooper Kupp +260
There's a version of this Super Bowl story that Hollywood would reject for being too on the nose.
Cooper Kupp — Super Bowl LVI MVP, the man who caught the game-winning touchdown against the Bengals four years ago — got dumped by the Rams last March. They couldn't find a trade partner. Just... released. The Yakima, Washington native signed with the Seahawks for three years, $45 million, posted "coming home" on social media, and proceeded to score a touchdown against his old team in the NFC Championship.
At Opening Night on Monday, Kupp didn't sound like a guy coasting on nostalgia. "I believe fully I'm meant to play this game," he told reporters. "God created me to be in this place, in this moment."
Now look — Kupp is 32, and he's not the primary target in this offense. That's Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who's been absurdly good all season. But Kupp still knows how to work the red zone better than almost anyone in football. When the Seahawks get inside the 20, Darnold trusts Kupp's route-running instincts the way McVay's offense once did. The slot work is just different when you've already caught a Super Bowl-winning touchdown in your career.
+260 feels like the market is underrating his situational value.
The one I'm fading: Drake Maye +285
I get the appeal. Maye is electric. He rushed for a 6-yard touchdown in the AFC Championship against Denver, and his mobility has been one of the few bright spots in an otherwise clunky Patriots postseason offense. He modeled his game after Aaron Rodgers growing up — told the media exactly that at Opening Night, gushing about Rodgers' "swag" in warmups.
But here's the problem: the shoulder.
Maye suffered a throwing shoulder injury in the AFC title game. He told reporters he's "turned a corner" and threw normally in Monday's practice, but this is the Super Bowl. Coaches say the right things. Players say the right things. Mike Vrabel's staff isn't going to broadcast weakness four days before kickoff.
A quarterback with a banged-up shoulder is less likely to tuck the ball and take hits in the red zone. The Patriots' offensive game plan against a fearsome Seattle pass rush — led by DeMarcus Lawrence and a defense holding opponents scoreless for eight consecutive quarters entering the NFC Championship — will almost certainly involve getting the ball out quick, not QB scrambles.
Save the +285 for a game where Maye is fully healthy.
The sneaky underdog: Hunter Henry +235
If the Patriots are going to score offensive touchdowns on Sunday — and that's genuinely a question mark given how their offense has sputtered in the playoffs — the tight end position is where I'd look. Henry has been one of Maye's most reliable targets all season, and the Seahawks' defense, as dominant as it's been, occasionally gives up ground over the middle to tight ends working the seam.
Super Bowl 59 was a tight end shutout, which is unusual historically. The position has scored 11 touchdowns in the last decade of Super Bowls. If the Patriots' red-zone offense functions at all, Henry is the guy who benefits from short-area throws to a big body — exactly the kind of throw a quarterback with shoulder concerns can still make comfortably.
+235 is a fair price for what could end up being New England's only realistic scoring threat through the air.
The bottom line
Seattle is favored by 4.5, the total sits at 45.5, and the Seahawks' defense has been suffocating for weeks. That tells me the scoring could be concentrated — when points happen, they'll likely come from Seattle's playmakers or from New England's defense/special teams capitalizing on short fields.
My card for Sunday: Shaheed anytime TD at +350 (best value on the board), Kupp anytime TD at +260 (red-zone specialist in the biggest game of his second life), and a reluctant nod to Walker at -195 because sometimes the obvious play is obvious for a reason.
For all the game day details — kickoff time, halftime show info, and streaming options — check out our full Super Bowl 2026 viewing guide.
Sources: Covers.com, ESPN, Seahawks.com, CBS Sports, Boston Globe, NFL.com, Pro Football Reference. Odds via DraftKings as of February 4, 2026.