Vegas thinks Josh Allen is Superman. ESPN keeps telling us there are "no more metahumans in the AFC." The Bills opened as road favorites against the No. 1 seed—only the third time since 1970 that's happened in the Divisional Round.
And I'm sitting here thinking: have any of these people actually looked at Buffalo's run defense?
The number everyone's ignoring
Let me paint you a picture. The Bills finished the regular season ranked 24th in rushing defense, surrendering 424 fantasy points to running backs and allowing 20 rushing touchdowns. That's not mediocre. That's a neon sign flashing "run the ball on us."
Now guess who they're playing? A Denver team with the NFL's second-best rushing defense, a rookie running back who's been absolutely cooking since November, and a head coach who's been dreaming about this exact matchup for twelve months.
Sean Payton hasn't forgotten last January. That 31-7 beatdown in Orchard Park—where Buffalo held possession for 41:43 and Denver's offense disappeared after the opening drive—has been living rent-free in his head all year.
"We have to figure out how to play this game at home," Payton thought during that freezing Sunday. They spent the entire offseason making sure they could.
RJ Harvey: the name you should've been tracking
Here's where it gets interesting. Denver drafted RJ Harvey out of UCF in the second round, and for most of the season, he was buried behind JK Dobbins. The coaching staff brought him along slowly—four or fewer carries in six of the first ten games.
Then Dobbins went down with a season-ending foot injury in mid-November. And suddenly, Harvey had to grow up fast.
What happened next? In his last five games as a starter, Harvey averaged 19.3 PPR points per game and scored six total touchdowns. Against the Jaguars' league-leading run defense in Week 16, he went for 121 yards on just 11 touches. The kid averaged 11 yards per touch against the best rushing defense in football.
"He played his ass off, and he's been playing his butt off," right tackle Mike McGlinchey said after watching Harvey carry the offense against the Raiders. "And I can't wait to see what he keeps doing."
Bo Nix has noticed too: "He can do so many different things and do them well. Thought he ran the ball hard, he was hard to tackle. He's really starting to get it, he understands things."
Harvey's secret weapon? Vision. The Broncos' GM George Paton said it himself during draft season: "His running style—we feel he's dynamic. He has really good vision, really good instincts, really good contact balance. Highly explosive. We thought maybe he had the best vision in the draft."
That vision came from an unusual place. Harvey played quarterback in high school, and he believes it gives him an edge. "I feel like playing quarterback has given me an advantage with my vision," Harvey explained. "I know what to expect. I can see what the defense is doing."
Josh Allen's body is telling a story Vegas doesn't want to hear
Let's talk about what happened in Jacksonville last Sunday. Allen went into the medical tent twice. His left knee got caught underneath a pile after a rushing touchdown. He got rolled up on multiple occasions. He hit his throwing hand on a teammate's helmet. He was evaluated for a concussion.
The man came out limping in the locker room after the game, nursing a bone bruise in his foot that's been nagging him since Week 16.
"Just got rolled up a little bit... We're good," Allen said afterward. Classic Josh. But CBS sideline reporter Tracy Wolfson got a different read: Allen told her he'll have to "manage it the rest of the postseason" and that "adrenaline and medicine will take over."
On Tuesday, he tried to downplay it again: "I feel good. Honestly, I feel better than I have the last few weeks."
The injury report tells another story. Allen is listed with foot, knee, and right finger injuries heading into Saturday. Three Bills receivers—including Tyrell Shavers (knee, placed on IR) and Gabe Davis—are dealing with issues. Safety Jordan Poyer aggravated his hamstring and missed the second half against Jacksonville.
This is a team held together by duct tape and Josh Allen's stubbornness. They're flying to Denver on a short week to face a rested defense that recorded 68 sacks this season—tied for fifth-highest in NFL history.
Why home field actually matters this time
The last time the Broncos hosted a playoff game? January 24, 2015. Peyton Manning versus Tom Brady in the AFC Championship. Denver won 20-18 and rode that momentum all the way to Super Bowl 50.
A decade later, Empower Field at Mile High is about to get loud again. Payton knows it, and he's already working the crowd angle.
"Hey, can we do that collectively for 120—no, I just need it for half the snaps in the game, right? Say 65 snaps," Payton said when asked about the atmosphere. He called it a "huge advantage."
Cornerback Pat Surtain II put it simply: "Last year, it was our first taste of it going into the playoffs as a wild card team. But now we have home-field advantage, which is different."
Nix is excited to flip the script: "Last year was a tough environment, tough road experience. It's obviously nice to be at home. It's nice for that challenge to be on the other side. Being able to use verbal cadence, being able to talk, being able to communicate is going to be better for us at home."
And here's the kicker about altitude: only two running backs have topped 75 rushing yards against Denver all season—Jonathan Taylor (165 yards in Week 2) and JK Dobbins (83 yards in Week 3). That was before Talanoa Hufanga and Dre Greenlaw arrived from San Francisco to shore up the defense. The Broncos now hold opponents to 3.87 yards per carry, tied for second-best in the NFL.
The game plan writes itself
If I'm Sean Payton, here's what I'm doing Saturday: feed Harvey early, keep Josh Allen watching from the sideline, and let the altitude and crowd noise do the rest.
"Do I think he needs to be more aggressive going downfield in the playoffs? A lot of that would be based on who we're playing. We want to be aggressive," Payton said about Bo Nix. "We will take our shots... We'll definitely stretch the ball down the field. We feel like we have some guys that can go down and get it."
But the real play is controlling clock. Buffalo's defense excels at limiting yards after the catch—that's been central to Denver's passing efficiency all season. Expect Payton to lean into the run game, quick-hitting throws, and sustained drives designed to keep Allen off the field entirely.
Nix doesn't need to throw a touchdown pass to win this game. Harvey hitting the holes, Nik Bonitto and the pass rush teeing off on Allen, and Broncos Country making life miserable every time Buffalo goes no-huddle? That's the recipe.
The bottom line
The disrespect toward Denver has reached historic levels. Only two other No. 1 seeds since 1970 have been home underdogs in the Divisional Round. The 2017 Eagles were on that list—they went on to win the Super Bowl.
ESPN analyst Ryan Clark declared on Monday: "Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills are going to the Super Bowl... Superman is a metahuman. There are no more metahumans in the AFC."
Cool story. But Superman struggles to stop the run, and Denver's defense has been waiting all year to remind everyone what they can do.
RJ Harvey against the worst rushing defense in the AFC playoff field, at altitude, with a rested team and a coach who's been scheming revenge for 364 days. That's not a bad hand to play.
Vegas has the Bills -1.5. I'll take the Broncos and the disrespect card.
Broncos 24, Bills 20.