We're almost at Christmas 2025 and the Premier League has delivered exactly the kind of chaos nobody predicted back in August. Arsenal sit top for the third time in four years, Aston Villa are legitimate title contenders, and Liverpool's £300 million title defense has completely imploded.
Let's break down what's actually happening—and why the storylines are far more dramatic than anyone could have imagined.
Arsenal: Third time's the charm?
Here we go again. Arsenal are top of the Premier League at Christmas—the fifth time in the Premier League era, and the third time in four seasons under Mikel Arteta. The problem? They've never converted this position into a title. Not once.
But this year feels different. Viktor Gyokeres finally gives them the clinical finisher they've desperately needed. The Swedish striker's penalty at Everton's new Hill Dickinson Stadium sealed a 1-0 win that put the Gunners back on top after Manchester City briefly went first with a 3-0 demolition of West Ham.
The two-point lead is slim, and Arsenal know better than anyone how quickly things can unravel. Their away form has been shaky—just two points from a possible nine on the road recently—but the defensive numbers are elite. Only 10 goals conceded in league play. David Raya barely has to work most nights.
"What gives me belief and confidence is the level of performance and the consistency of that," Arteta said after the Everton win. "That's very, very difficult to do in this league."
He's right. But he also said similar things in 2023 and 2024 before watching City cruise past them.
Manchester City: The machine is humming again
Remember when City looked finished earlier this season? Seven points behind Arsenal, struggling for consistency, looking every bit like a team whose dynasty was over?
Yeah, about that.
Pep Guardiola's side have won five straight in the league and cut the gap from seven points to two in just over a month. The 3-0 win over West Ham was vintage City—controlled, clinical, suffocating. They briefly went top before Arsenal's late kickoff.
"We will be there," Guardiola said ominously. "If they follow me, we will be there, but we have to improve."
That should terrify every Arsenal fan. When City get rolling in the second half of the season, they're almost impossible to stop. Since 2017, they've won four titles after not leading at Christmas. They know how to peak when it matters.
Aston Villa: The dark horse nobody's talking about enough
Forget the two-horse race narrative. Aston Villa are legitimate contenders and it's criminal how little attention they're getting.
Unai Emery's side have won 10 consecutive games in all competitions. Eleven wins from twelve in the league. They're unbeaten in 19 matches overall with 16 victories in that span. They've beaten both City and Arsenal during this run.
Third place, six points behind Arsenal with a game in hand. The numbers suggest they're overperforming—25 goals from an xG of 17.08, 17 conceded from an xGA of 22.07—but at some point you have to acknowledge that consistently defying underlying metrics is its own kind of skill.
Villa don't play flashy football. They're organized, aggressive, and ruthlessly efficient. If they beat Manchester United on Sunday, we need to start taking them seriously as genuine title contenders.
Liverpool: The £300 million disaster
This is the real story of the season. Liverpool spent a British-record €482.9 million on six players in the summer—Florian Wirtz (£116m record signing), Alexander Isak, Hugo Ekitike, Jeremie Frimpong, Milos Kerkez—and they've gotten significantly worse.
Five defeats in eleven Premier League matches. Eight points behind Arsenal. Fourth place. The title defense is effectively over before Christmas.
The Isak situation is particularly damning. The most expensive signing in Premier League history has one goal and one assist in 16 matches. He's attempting 12 passes per 90 minutes—nobody else on Liverpool is below 20. For a 26-year-old in the prime of his career, signed specifically to lead their attack, this is catastrophic.
Then there's the Salah drama. Mohamed Salah publicly stated he "used to have a good relationship" with Arne Slot but now doesn't "have any relationship" at all. He's been dropped from squads, missed the Champions League trip to Inter, and the whole situation reeks of dysfunction.
The defending champions look nothing like champions. Their defensive instability has been alarming, they're struggling against counter-attacks, and Slot's constant lineup changes suggest he doesn't know what his best XI actually is.
After their 2-0 loss to City at the Etihad, Roy Keane was brutal: "You can't be considering Liverpool for the title. City looked technically and physically better in every aspect."
Nottingham Forest: From heroes to chaos in six months
Remember Forest's fairytale 2024-25 season? Fourth place at Christmas, Champions League qualification for the first time in decades? That feels like ancient history now.
The 2025-26 season has been an absolute disaster. Nuno Espírito Santo was sacked on September 9th after his relationship with owner Evangelos Marinakis deteriorated. His replacement? Ange Postecoglou, fresh from getting Tottenham to an Europa League title.
Postecoglou lasted 39 days. The shortest permanent managerial reign in Premier League history. Zero wins in eight matches. A 3-0 home loss to Chelsea was the final straw.
Sean Dyche is now trying to salvage the wreckage. Forest went from genuine European contenders to a club seemingly in freefall. It's a cautionary tale about what happens when ownership meddling meets unrealistic expectations.
The rest of the chaos
Tottenham finished 17th last season but somehow won the Europa League. Now Thomas Frank (hired from Brentford) is trying to rebuild a squad that conceded 60 goals and lost 20 times in 2024-25. Their 2-1 home loss to Liverpool, where they finished with nine men, summed up their season.
Manchester United remain a mess under Ruben Amorim. They finished 15th last season—the lowest position in the club's Premier League history—and while things have marginally improved, top four still feels unlikely.
The newly promoted clubs (Leeds, Burnley, Sunderland) are all competitive. The Tyne-Wear derby is back in the top flight for the first time since 2015-16, and Sunderland's return after eight years in the lower leagues has been one of the feel-good stories of the season.
What this all means
The Premier League power structure continues to shift. Arsenal have the quality but not the history of converting leads. City have the pedigree but questions remain about their ceiling without a fresh rebuild. Villa are the wildcard that could upset everything.
And Liverpool? Their title defense has been an unmitigated disaster despite unprecedented spending. Sometimes money can't buy chemistry, and right now the Reds are proof of that.
The second half of the season promises absolute chaos. Arsenal will be haunted by their recent collapses. City will come relentlessly. Villa might just shock everyone.
This is exactly what makes this league worth watching.
