I keep coming back to the cruelty of the timing. Three plays. That's all it took. Bo Nix had just orchestrated his sixth fourth-quarter-or-later comeback of the season, threading the needle against Buffalo in overtime. The Broncos were dancing on the sideline. And somewhere in the chaos of a kneel-down — a kneel-down — Nix's ankle twisted in a way ankles shouldn't.
Now Denver heads into Sunday's AFC Championship against the Patriots with Jarrett Stidham under center. The same Jarrett Stidham that New England drafted in 2019. The same guy who hasn't thrown a regular season pass since 2023. The betting markets have already rendered their verdict: Denver is the biggest home underdog in conference championship history.
Here's the thing, though. I'm not entirely sure they're right.
The numbers tell a complicated story
If you've been following FTN's DVOA metrics this season, you'd assume the Patriots-Broncos matchup would be a coin flip with Nix healthy. Both teams built their records on soft schedules — New England faced opponents averaging -13.3% DVOA, Denver -5.5%. Neither squad exactly ran a gauntlet to get here.
| Metric | Patriots (16-3) | Broncos (15-3) |
|---|---|---|
| Total DVOA | 10.5% (9th) | 14.4% (7th) |
| Weighted DVOA | 32.9% (2nd) | 19.0% (6th) |
That weighted DVOA number for the Patriots jumps off the page. New England has been playing like an entirely different team since midseason. The defense, specifically, has undergone a transformation that doesn't get enough attention.
| Patriots defense | Pass DVOA | Run DVOA | Total DVOA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-9 | 29.0% (28th) | -18.4% (5th) | 11.1% (26th) |
| Weeks 10-20 | -14.9% (7th) | -6.1% (18th) | -10.9% (7th) |
From 28th to 7th in pass defense DVOA. That's not a minor adjustment. That's an exorcism.
The Drake Maye problem (for Denver)
Let's be honest about something: Drake Maye has been ridiculous this year. League-leading passer rating. League-leading completion percentage at 72%. The first Patriot ever to hit 70%. He tied Patrick Mahomes for the most 100+ passer rating games by a player under 24 in a single season.
The Pro Football Writers named him Most Improved Player today. He's a legitimate MVP candidate going against a secondary anchored by Pat Surtain II, last year's Defensive Player of the Year. That matchup alone would make Sunday appointment viewing.
"This season, no quarterback has been as precociously stellar — brilliant, really — as Maye, a 23-year-old North Carolinian with a golden arm."
— Britannica, January 2026
The concern for Maye? Ball security. He lost two fumbles against Houston last week, four fumbles total in two playoff games. If the Broncos win Sunday, it'll probably involve Nik Bonitto getting home a few times and forcing some chaos.
So about this Stidham situation...
Sean Payton stood at the podium Wednesday with the energy of a man who'd bet his house on a hand he hadn't shown anyone yet.
"He's gonna rip it. That'll be our approach. He's got this calm demeanor that I think suits him well... I felt like our two [QBs] were inside the best 32. I'm glad that acquisition took place."
— Sean Payton, January 22, 2026
Inside the best 32. That's... bold. Stidham has four career starts. He hasn't attempted a pass in a game that counted since December 2023. The last time he saw extended action, Russell Wilson had just been benched and the Broncos were going nowhere.
But here's what I find interesting. In those four starts across 2022-23, Stidham wasn't bad. He put up 6.3% pass DVOA with the Raiders in '22, including a strong game against the 49ers. His 2023 numbers were essentially league average. The sample is tiny, but it's not the disaster you might expect.
| Stidham metric | 2022 (Raiders) | 2023 (Broncos) |
|---|---|---|
| Games started | 2 | 2 |
| Pass DVOA | 6.3% | 0.2% |
| Adjusted sack rate | 9.6% | 10.6% |
The sack rate is the red flag. Nix led the league at 3.9% this year — he's basically a magician at avoiding pressure. Stidham? He's taken 13 sacks in four career starts. Against a Patriots pass rush that's found another gear in recent weeks (first in pressure rate since Week 17, per FTN), that discrepancy could be devastating.
The subplot nobody's talking about
Stidham was a fourth-round pick by the Patriots in 2019. He spent three years in Foxborough, mostly as Tom Brady's backup, then briefly as Cam Newton's competition. He knows that building. He knows what it feels like to play in that cold January New England air — even if it was mostly during practice.
Bo Nix posted his first public comments since the injury on Wednesday. The message landed with the quiet confidence of someone who's broken his ankle twice before.
"God never says oops... This is not how I imagined my season would come to an end, but our season has been defined by overcoming adversity and responding to it. I couldn't be more confident in Jarrett."
— Bo Nix, Instagram, January 22, 2026
There's something almost poetic about Stidham getting his shot against his former team in a conference championship. Life doesn't usually write scripts this clean.
What actually matters Sunday
Forget the narratives for a second. Here's the matchup that'll decide this game:
| Patriots offense | vs. | Broncos defense |
|---|---|---|
| Pass DVOA: 16.2% (3rd) | Pass DVOA: -10.4% (5th) | |
| Weighted pass: 20.5% (2nd) | Weighted pass: -10.0% (8th) |
Strength against strength. Except... DeMario Douglas in the slot against Ja'Quan McMillian could be a mismatch. Denver ranked just 22nd in DVOA against slot receivers. Maye ranked third throwing to the slot. If Josh McDaniels dials up the quick game, there's daylight there.
The Broncos' path to victory is simpler: keep Stidham upright, lean on the defense, pray the altitude matters. They didn't need elite quarterback play from Nix to go 15-3. The question is whether they can survive with replacement-level quarterback play.
The honest prediction
I think the Patriots win. I think the line is probably right. New England has too much momentum, too much firepower with Maye, and a defense playing its best football at exactly the right time.
But I also think anyone writing off the Broncos hasn't watched enough football. Weird things happen in January. Backup quarterbacks sometimes catch fire — ask Nick Foles. Denver has the defense to keep this close, and one Stidham deep shot that connects could flip the energy entirely.
The Broncos are the biggest home underdog in conference championship history. They're also two wins from a Super Bowl title, same as the Patriots. That's the beautiful cruelty of the playoffs.
Kickoff is Sunday at 3 PM ET from Empower Field at Mile High. I genuinely have no idea what's going to happen. And honestly? That's exactly why I'll be watching.