Can Liam Coen's Jaguars really beat Josh Allen today?

Jacksonville hosts Buffalo with an 8-game win streak and a $1.4 billion stadium renovation in the background. Welcome to Wild Card Sunday in Duval.

By Marcus GarrettPublished Jan 11, 2026, 5:00 AMUpdated Jan 11, 2026, 3:12 PM
Can Liam Coen's Jaguars really beat Josh Allen today?

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There's a crane outside EverBank Stadium right now. Workers tearing down light towers. Concrete foundations being poured for a new canopy structure that'll change how Jacksonville watches football for the next three decades.

And inside that same stadium, at 1 p.m. ET today, Trevor Lawrence will try to do something he's never done before: beat Josh Allen when it matters most.

This is Wild Card Sunday in Jacksonville. The Jaguars are hosting a playoff game for the first time since that historic comeback against the Chargers in January 2023. The 13-4 AFC South champions have won eight straight. Their head coach, Liam Coen, just became the only first-year NFL coach in history to win 12+ games after inheriting a team with four or fewer wins the previous season.

And yet, Vegas still has them as slight underdogs.

Makes sense when you think about it. Josh Allen is Josh Allen. The Bills' quarterback has 3,668 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, and 14 more scores on the ground this season. He's the most complete offensive weapon in the conference, maybe the league.

But something changed in Jacksonville

Since their Week 8 bye, the Jaguars have looked like a completely different franchise. Lawrence's stat line speaks for itself: 4,007 passing yards, 29 touchdowns through the air, nine more on the ground. Career highs across the board.

"The best rise and elevate the people around them," Coen said after clinching the division. "He has continued to do that down this stretch."

The turnaround has been remarkable. Last January, the Jaguars were 4-13. Doug Pederson was out. Trent Baalke was gone. Shad Khan was getting roasted by national media for running his franchise into the ground.

Now? Defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile has Jacksonville allowing just 85.6 rushing yards per game—the best mark in the NFL. The team recorded a +10 turnover margin against playoff opponents during the regular season, also the league's best. Players talk about "family" and "trust" without it sounding rehearsed.

"What's different about this team is we just stay steady and we just keep going no matter what," tight end Brenton Strange said after a late-season comeback win over Arizona.

The stadium tells a bigger story

Look past the field and you'll notice the changes. The skybridge is gone. Escalator towers demolished. Underground utilities already relocated for the $1.4 billion renovation that'll transform EverBank into what the franchise calls "the Stadium of the Future."

The project is about 10% complete, according to team officials. Jaguars president Mark Lamping recently confirmed some cost overruns—around $100 million—but stressed that construction remains on schedule. Owner Shad Khan is contractually obligated to absorb any overages beyond the city's $775 million contribution.

Completion is set for 2028. The team plays at full capacity in 2026, then temporarily relocates to either Gainesville or Orlando for the 2027 season while the upper bowl gets rebuilt.

A transparent canopy made from ViewScape polymer will eventually cover every seat, reducing temperatures by 15 degrees. Think SoFi Stadium meets Florida humidity. It's an ambitious project for a franchise that spent most of the last decade fighting relocation rumors.

"Never doubt Jacksonville," Mayor Donna Deegan said when the deal was approved last year. "We are a city on the rise."

The math problem

Here's the issue for Jacksonville today: Buffalo's run defense isn't good. The Bills allowed 5.1 yards per carry this season, third-worst in the league. Travis Etienne should feast. The Jaguars should be able to control the clock, shorten the game, keep Allen off the field.

But Allen doesn't need time. He needs one drive. One moment of chaos that only he can create.

Jacksonville beat playoff teams five times during the regular season—including convincing wins over Denver and the Chargers. But they haven't faced anyone like Allen.

"Balance and efficiency is key," senior writer John Oehser noted in the team's official preview. "Feed off the crowd."

Coen knows what's at stake. His fourth-down aggressiveness (24% go rate, almost matching Dan Campbell's 25.6%) could either extend drives or hand Allen short fields. Little's ability to hit from 60+ yards gives Jacksonville options. But playoff football amplifies every mistake.

"Hindsight probably should've kicked it," Coen admitted when asked about some of his regular-season gambles. "But we've gotta be able to gain a frea—" He caught himself. Deep breath. "We'll see how it goes."

Kickoff

Bills at Jaguars. 1 p.m. ET. CBS.

Lawrence has never beaten Allen. The Bills won 47-10 when these teams last met in Week 3 of 2024. But that was a different Jacksonville. Different staff. Different energy.

And Coen's locker room celebration—the fist pump, the "How's that feel?" borrowed from his father's coaching days—has become a weekly ritual that players genuinely look forward to.

"I'm not sure what it is," Strange said. "If it's a fist pump or whatever. But it's pretty exciting every single week to see him come in and just have the juice and energy."

One more time today would be nice.

Category: FOOTBALL
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Marcus Garrett

Marcus Garrett is a former semi-pro footballer turned sports analyst obsessed with tactical nuance. Based in Portland, he watches everything from MLS to Champions League with the same level of intensity. He believes the Premier League gets too much hype and isn't afraid to say it. When he's not breaking down formations, he's arguing with fans on Twitter about overrated wingers.