Christmas Day football was supposed to deliver drama. Netflix paid $150 million for this. What they got was a tale of two franchises heading in opposite directions—one watching its dynasty crumble in real-time, the other quietly building something special nobody wants to acknowledge.
Detroit's season dies on live television
The Lions handed the Minnesota Vikings six turnovers on Christmas Day. Six. Against an eliminated team starting an undrafted rookie quarterback who finished with three net passing yards. Read that again. Three. Net. Passing. Yards.
Jared Goff was responsible for five of those turnovers—two interceptions, three fumbles (including two on botched snaps with backup center Kingsley Eguakun). This was the highest-scoring offense in NFL history last season. On Christmas, they looked like they'd never seen a football before.
"I'm gonna be looking at a lot of things, because I do not like being home for the playoffs, and I know our guys don't either," Dan Campbell said postgame, his voice carrying the weight of a franchise that went from 15-2 to 8-8 in twelve months.
A year ago, these same teams met in Week 18 at 14-2 each, fighting for the NFC North crown. Now? The Lions are officially eliminated, and Campbell's words from the 2023 NFC Championship loss are haunting every corner of Detroit: "This may have been our only shot."
Ben Johnson left to coach the Bears. Aaron Glenn took the Jets job. Injuries decimated both sides of the ball. But losing to a team that couldn't generate positive passing yardage until the final three minutes? That's not bad luck. That's a complete structural failure.
Bo Nix ends a decade of Arrowhead nightmares
While Detroit was self-destructing, something remarkable happened in Kansas City. Bo Nix did what no Broncos quarterback has done since Peyton Manning in 2015—win at Arrowhead Stadium.
The numbers won't make highlight reels. 26-of-38 for 182 yards, one touchdown, one interception. But the result? The Broncos (13-3) are now one win—or one Chargers loss—from clinching the AFC West for the first time since their Super Bowl 50 season.
"It was exactly the opposite we thought we were going to get from them defensively. I thought they were going to blitz the heck out of us," Nix said. "We had to inch our way down the field. They were taking things away. This was one of those games you knew you weren't going to throw for a lot of yards."
The postgame moment everyone's talking about? Travis Kelce—likely playing his final home game in Kansas City—approached Nix at midfield. "Go get you one," Kelce told him. That's a three-time Super Bowl champion passing the torch to a second-year quarterback nobody believed in.
The strangest 13-3 team in NFL history
Denver has won 11 one-score games this season. No team in history has produced 12 comeback wins in a single season. Sean Payton put it bluntly: "You always have to remember this. You are playing the heart of a champion. I don't care who comes out of that locker room. This is a team that has basically been at the top of our league for the better part of a decade."
The Broncos swept the Chiefs for the first time since 2014. They didn't even accomplish that during the Super Bowl 50 run. Nix was 15 years old the last time Denver won at Arrowhead.
Now the equation is simple: if the Texans beat the Chargers on Saturday, Denver clinches the AFC West before the weekend ends. If not? Week 18 becomes a winner-take-all showdown against LA for the division title and the conference's top seed.
Where the playoff picture stands
The NFC field is nearly set. Only the NFC South remains undecided—Carolina (8-7) currently leads, but Tampa Bay (7-8) still controls its destiny if they beat the Panthers in Week 18.
The AFC race is tighter. Denver leads for the No. 1 seed at 46% odds. New England (12-3) is 82% likely to win the AFC East. Jacksonville clinched a playoff spot and holds an 82% chance of taking the AFC South. Pittsburgh (9-6) sits at 91% to win the AFC North.
The Packers clinched a playoff berth thanks to Detroit's loss—though their shot at the NFC North is just 11%. The Bears (11-4) hold an 89% probability of winning the division.
The bottom line
Christmas football taught us something important: dynasties end quietly, and new ones begin before anyone notices. The Lions went from championship favorites to watching from home. The Broncos went from basement dwellers to contenders in less than three years under Payton.
Nix said it best after beating Green Bay last week: "We're the overdogs." He's not wrong. The question now is whether Denver can handle being the team everyone expects to win—because that's a different kind of pressure entirely.