A year ago, the Denver Broncos, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Carolina Panthers combined to win 17 games. Between them. The Broncos went 5-12. The Jaguars cratered to 4-13. The Panthers stumbled to 5-12 and fired their coach midseason.
Now? All three are division champions. All three are hosting playoff games. And all three are walking reminders that in the NFL, everything changes faster than you think.
Denver's return to glory
The Broncos clinched the AFC's No. 1 seed on Sunday with a 19-3 win over the Los Angeles Chargers. It wasn't pretty—no offensive touchdowns, just four Wil Lutz field goals—but it got the job done.
"A win is a win, I don't care if it's 3-2," wide receiver Courtland Sutton said. "It doesn't have to be exciting. At the end of the day, you have to have more points than the other team and you get the dub."
Denver finished 14-3, tying the 1998 team for the most wins in franchise history. That squad won Super Bowl XXXIII. The last time the Broncos held the AFC's top seed was 2015—and they won Super Bowl 50.
Head coach Sean Payton now has three No. 1 seeds on his resume with two different organizations. Quarterback Bo Nix, in just his second NFL season, tied Russell Wilson's record for most wins as a starter (24) in a player's first two years.
The defense was dominant against the Chargers, limiting Los Angeles to 217 yards. Outside linebacker Nik Bonitto finished the season with a career-best 14 sacks and forced a fumble in the fourth quarter. Denver's 68 team sacks fell just four short of the NFL's single-season record.
That's a defense built to win in January.
Jacksonville's stunning turnaround
The Jaguars were 4-13 last year. They fired Urban Meyer midway through the 2021 season and spent years trying to recover from that chaos. Trevor Lawrence looked like a bust. The offense was stagnant. The franchise was a joke.
Enter head coach Liam Coen, and everything changed.
Jacksonville demolished the Tennessee Titans 41-7 on Sunday to clinch the AFC South and secure the No. 3 seed. The Jaguars finished 13-4, winners of eight straight games—their longest winning streak since 1999. Lawrence threw for 255 yards and three touchdowns before exiting in the fourth quarter with the game well in hand.
"The best rise and the best elevate the people around him," Coen said of Lawrence. "He has continued to do that down this stretch."
Lawrence's fifth season might be his best. He finished with 29 passing touchdowns, nine rushing scores, and just 11 interceptions. During the eight-game winning streak, he threw 20 touchdowns against only five picks. Suddenly, the guy who was supposed to be a generational prospect looks like one.
The Jaguars also own a piece of NFL history: kicker Cam Little hit a 68-yard field goal earlier this season, breaking Justin Tucker's record for the longest field goal in league history. He added a 67-yarder against the Titans on Sunday. The two longest field goals in NFL history both belong to him.
Carolina's improbable title
The Panthers didn't win on Sunday. They lost 16-14 to Tampa Bay in a sloppy game at Raymond James Stadium. Bryce Young struggled. The running game disappeared. Dave Canales' offense managed just 19 rushing yards.
None of it mattered.
Atlanta beat New Orleans 19-17, and the resulting three-way tie at 8-9 between the Panthers, Buccaneers, and Falcons handed Carolina the NFC South title thanks to tiebreakers.
"When he answered the phone I said, 'Is this the owner of the NFC South champion Panthers?'" Canales recalled of his post-game call with owner David Tepper. "He got a good kick out of that."
This is Carolina's first division championship since 2015—the year Cam Newton won MVP and led the Panthers to Super Bowl 50. It's their first playoff berth since 2017. They became the first team since at least 1990 to clinch a playoff spot in the final week of the season despite losing their final game and finishing with a losing record.
The Panthers will host the Los Angeles Rams on Saturday. They beat the Rams 31-28 in Charlotte back in Week 13, when Bryce Young connected with Tetairoa McMillan on a 43-yard go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter.
Backing into the playoffs is still getting into the playoffs. And in the NFC South—the division where chaos reigns—it might be the most fitting way to do it.
What happens next
Denver gets a bye. The Broncos will wait for the lowest remaining seed after Wild Card Weekend and host a Divisional Round game at Empower Field at Mile High.
Jacksonville hosts Buffalo on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET. The Bills have Josh Allen. The Jaguars have momentum. Should be a fight.
Carolina hosts the Rams on Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET. Los Angeles enters as a heavy favorite, but the Panthers already proved once this year they can play with Matthew Stafford's offense.
A year ago, nobody saw any of this coming. That's the NFL. Everything changes. Everything is possible.
Well, almost everything.