Kyrie Irving was shooting jumpers before Thursday's game against the Utah Jazz. His handles looked tight. His form looked clean. Dallas fans watching the warmup probably felt a surge of hope.
They shouldn't get too excited.
According to ESPN's Tim MacMahon, Irving won't return before the February 5 trade deadline — and there's a real possibility he doesn't play at all this season.
"Kyrie is not coming back before the trade deadline," MacMahon said on his "Howdy Partners" podcast. "I don't know at this point if Kyrie is playing this season."
The numbers don't lie
Irving tore his ACL on March 3, 2025, during a loss to the Sacramento Kings. He had surgery on March 26. Standard ACL recovery takes 9-12 months, which should have put him on track for a January or February return.
But ACL recoveries aren't standard. They're individual. And at 33 years old, Irving's timeline was always going to be different than a 23-year-old's.
The Mavericks are currently 14-23, sitting 11th in the Western Conference and barely clinging to play-in hopes. Cooper Flagg has been electric since arriving as the No. 1 pick. Anthony Davis is slowly rounding into form after his own injury struggles. The pieces are there — but the Mavericks need Irving to be the connective tissue.
What Irving himself has said
Irving hasn't been hiding from the uncertainty. In a July livestream, he was asked directly if he'd be back for the playoffs. His answer was blunt.
"Don't hold your breath on that."
He's been more measured in other moments, describing the recovery as "a beautiful struggle" while acknowledging the mental toll.
"It's not pretty," Irving said. "I go through kind of the mental rollercoaster ride every day. Just want to be back out there."
On January 2, Irving posted on X with a message that felt directed at his teammates: "Tribe, stay together no matter what. The Journey is the Reward."
Why the Mavericks might hold him out anyway
Here's the uncomfortable truth: even if Irving were physically ready, rushing him back might not make sense.
Dallas doesn't just need Irving for 20 games at 75% capacity. They need to see how he fits with Flagg and Davis, two players he's never shared the court with in a competitive setting. They need to evaluate whether Irving at 33, post-ACL surgery, can still be the player who made this trade worthwhile.
Head coach Jason Kidd has been deliberately vague about the timeline. "There's no schedule still," he told reporters before Thursday's game. "He's still doing the things he's supposed to… His spirits, he's in a good place."
Translation: we're not rushing anything.
The trade deadline complication
February 5 looms. If Irving isn't coming back before then, the Mavericks need to make decisions about their roster without knowing what Irving actually is anymore.
Do they stand pat and hope? Do they make a move to bolster depth? Do they accept that this season is about development rather than contention?
The last option feels increasingly realistic. Dallas has the pieces of a future contender: Flagg's ceiling is enormous, Davis remains one of the most talented big men in the league when healthy, and Irving — if he returns as himself — is still a top-10 point guard in the right system.
But "if he returns as himself" is doing a lot of heavy lifting.
What happens next
Irving will continue rehabbing. The Mavericks will continue losing winnable games. Flagg will continue developing. And everyone will wait.
The pregame shooting sessions are encouraging. The lack of a firm return date is not. Until Irving actually steps on the court in a game that matters, the Mavericks are building their future around a question mark.
That might be fine. It might also be a disaster. The only honest answer is: we don't know yet.