Lucas Giolito gets it. He's been through this rodeo before—and this time, he's handling it differently.
"That's business, baby," the 31-year-old right-hander told Rob Bradford on the Baseball Isn't Boring podcast when asked about his free agency situation. "That's how it goes."
The former All-Star finished his 2025 Red Sox campaign with a 3.41 ERA across 26 starts. Respectable numbers. The kind of line that should generate interest. Yet here we are, approaching New Year's Eve, and Giolito remains unsigned while the pitching market moves at a glacial pace around him.
It wasn't supposed to feel this way. Not after bouncing back from the elbow surgery that wiped out his entire 2024 season. Not after anchoring a Red Sox rotation that made an unexpected playoff push. But the market doesn't care about narratives. It cares about risk.
And Giolito comes with plenty of it.
Statcast painted a complicated picture in 2025. His 3.41 surface ERA masked a 5.00 expected ERA—a gap that suggests he outperformed his underlying numbers. His strikeout rate dropped. His walk rate stayed stubborn. The home runs came down from his disastrous 2023 campaign with the Angels and Guardians, but the contact quality metrics still flash warning signs.
"I loved it there and I would have loved to go back," Giolito said of Boston. "I still would, but if you look at the writing on the wall, I don't think they need another starting pitcher."
He's right. The Red Sox traded for Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo this offseason, filling their rotation needs without dipping back into the Giolito well. Craig Breslow's staff looks set. Giolito needs to look elsewhere.
The Tampa Bay Rays have emerged as an intriguing fit. MLB.com's Andrew Simon recently highlighted the pairing, noting that the Rays have a track record of revitalizing veteran arms. Shane McClanahan's injury situation leaves a rotation hole. And Tampa Bay could flip a revived Giolito at the deadline if the season goes sideways—classic Rays baseball.
The Diamondbacks make sense too. Arizona lost Merrill Kelly at the deadline and might lose Zac Gallen in free agency. Their rotation ranked 19th in ERA last season. Giolito would slot in immediately as their second or third option behind Ryne Nelson.
San Diego keeps popping up as well. The Padres have made a habit of poaching Boston's former starters—Michael Wacha, Nick Pivetta—and watching them thrive. Giolito could be next if he's willing to bet on himself in the right environment.
The difference this time? Giolito isn't stressing.
"I used to work out four or five days a week. I'm working out six days a week now," he said. "For me, the anxiety is lessened when you're focused on the present and what you're doing each and every day."
Somewhere between a $100-million projection and a humble one-year prove-it deal, Lucas Giolito is waiting for a phone call. The market will sort itself out eventually. It always does.
Until then, he'll be in the gym. Grinding. Staying ready.
That's business, baby.