The NFL just handed teams another $26 million. Some will spend wisely. Most won't.
On Friday afternoon, while the Seahawks and Patriots finalize their Super Bowl LX preparations in Santa Clara, the NFL quietly dropped a number that will reshape every roster decision for the next six months: the 2026 salary cap is projected between $301.2 million and $305.7 million.
That's the first time above $300 million. Ever.
NFL Network's Tom Pelissero broke the news, and his summary was characteristically blunt: "Business is booming."
He's right. But underneath that headline, there's a more interesting story about which franchises are positioned to capitalize and which are about to spend the next three months performing accounting acrobatics just to get back to zero.
NFL salary cap over the years:
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) January 30, 2026
2013: $123M
2014: $133M
2015: $143.28M
2016: $155.27M
2017: $167M
2018: $177.2M
2019: $188.2M
2020: $198.2M
2021: $182.5M
2022: $208.2M
2023: $224.8M
2024: $255.4M
2025: $279.2M
2026: $301.2M-$305.7M (projected)
Business is booming. https://t.co/lNPmrwBQq0
The numbers behind the number
Let's put this in perspective. The 2025 cap was $279.2 million. This projected jump of $22-26 million is massive by historical standards. But zoom out further and the trajectory becomes almost absurd: the 2022 cap was roughly $208 million. We're looking at nearly $100 million in growth over four years.
Where's all this money coming from? The same place it always comes from in American sports: television.
The league's current media rights deals – with CBS, NBC, FOX, ESPN, and Amazon – are worth approximately $110 billion over 11 years. Those contracts more than doubled the previous agreements. ESPN alone is paying around $2.7 billion annually for Monday Night Football and the Super Bowl. Amazon shells out over $1 billion per season for Thursday nights. Netflix entered the mix with Christmas games at $150 million per year.
Players receive 48% of league revenue under the CBA. When TV money explodes, so does the cap. Simple math, complicated implications.
The Cowboys problem, in all its glory
Here's where it gets interesting. Not every franchise is built to handle this kind of windfall.
The Dallas Cowboys currently have the worst cap situation in the entire league, according to Over The Cap. They're technically in the red – owing more than they're allowed to spend before the league year even begins. Owner Jerry Jones, characteristically unbothered, told reporters at his end-of-season press conference that he sees the chance to "bust the budget" in pursuit of his stated goal: owning more Super Bowl wins than any other owner in history. He's currently three behind Robert Kraft's six.
Dallas's most pressing issue is George Pickens. The receiver they acquired from Pittsburgh last May for a third-round pick and a fifth-round swap has been nothing short of spectacular. He finished the season with 93 receptions for 1,429 yards and nine touchdowns – career highs across the board. CeeDee Lamb told reporters that Pickens "exceeded expectations" after finding a home in Dallas.
But Pickens is a free agent. The franchise tag for receivers projects around $28 million in 2026. Spotrac estimates his market value at roughly $30.8 million per year – a five-year, $153.7 million deal that would make him the sixth-highest-paid wideout in football.
The Cowboys can create approximately $100 million in cap space through restructures of Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Tyler Smith, Osa Odighizuwa, DaRon Bland, and Jake Ferguson. But those restructures come with consequences: pushing Prescott's cap hits in 2027 and 2028 north of $75 million and $85 million, respectively.
And then there's Brandon Aubrey, the All-Pro kicker who's also a free agent. Teams get one franchise tag per offseason. Dallas has two players worth tagging. Someone's going to the open market.
Who actually benefits?
The Pittsburgh Steelers, ironically, are in much better shape than the team that just acquired their former star receiver. Under new head coach Mike McCarthy, Pittsburgh enters the offseason with roughly $45.8 million in projected cap space – before the cap even increases. They have money to spend and holes to fill, particularly at quarterback.
The New Orleans Saints, despite years of cap manipulation that would make an accountant weep, are positioned for recovery. They have only about $176.3 million committed for 2027 and under $57 million for 2028. After years of mortgaging the future, the future is finally arriving.
Seattle, currently preparing for their first Super Bowl since the Malcolm Butler interception eleven years ago, has a relatively clean cap sheet and a quarterback in Sam Darnold playing on a team-friendly deal. If they win Sunday – and they're 3.5-point favorites – GM John Schneider will have resources to run it back.
The bigger picture
Commissioner Roger Goodell told CNBC last September that the league could begin renegotiating media rights as early as 2026 – four years before the current opt-out clause kicks in. He admitted, watching the NBA and NHL secure massive new TV deals, that the NFL is "leaving money on the table."
If that happens, the salary cap could jump even more dramatically in the coming years. Contracts that seem enormous today might look like bargains by 2028.
For players, this is unambiguously good news. The money is there. It's going to get spent. The only question is whether your team's front office is smart enough to spend it wisely.
Based on historical evidence, I wouldn't bet on it.