Twelve months ago, Raiders fans were debating whether the team could squeeze into a wild-card spot. Now they're watching the franchise lose its tenth straight game — and hoping for one more.
Sunday's 34-10 demolition at the hands of the New York Giants wasn't pretty. It wasn't supposed to be. The Raiders have shut down edge rusher Maxx Crosby for the remainder of the season, a move that signaled to everyone paying attention that Las Vegas has pivoted from "competing" to "positioning." And it worked.
Here's where things stand heading into the final weekend: the Raiders (2-14) control their own destiny for the No. 1 overall pick. Beat Kansas City on Sunday and things get complicated — strength of schedule tiebreakers come into play, and the Giants could leap back into the top spot if they lose to Dallas. Lose, and the pick is locked.
It's the easiest decision the organization will make this offseason.
What comes next is the hard part
Indiana's Fernando Mendoza is the consensus top quarterback on most draft boards right now. The Heisman winner has the higher floor, per evaluators, and projects as someone who can stabilize a roster that already has Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers in place. Oregon's Dante Moore is the upside play — more boom-or-bust, but arguably higher ceiling if things click.
ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. summarized the decision this week: both QBs present compelling cases for the top selection. Mendoza brings polish and decision-making. Moore brings raw athleticism and arm talent that scouts can't stop talking about.
The Geno Smith experiment in Las Vegas lasted exactly one miserable season. After being brought in to provide veteran stability following multiple failed quarterback projects, Smith posted one of his worst statistical campaigns and watched the offense regress week after week. The rebuild is now official.
Giants and Jets: tanking or just bad?
New York's two franchises sit at picks No. 2 and No. 3, respectively. The Giants (3-12) actually won on Sunday — their dominant performance against Las Vegas could cost them the No. 1 pick if you believe in conspiracy theories about competitive tanking. Realistically, Brian Daboll's team just happened to play well against a squad that stopped trying.
Jaxson Dart has shown enough at quarterback for the Giants to consider building around him rather than drafting his replacement. That means the No. 2 pick could become trade bait — or a defensive playmaker to pair with Malik Nabers.
The Jets? They've traded away Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams. They're not hiding their intentions.
Tennessee (3-12), Arizona (3-12), and Cleveland (4-12) round out the top six. The Titans blew a 10-point second-half lead to the Saints and are now blocked from the No. 1 pick due to strength of schedule. Cam Ward's rookie season has been what you'd expect from a first-year quarterback on a bad team: flashes mixed with growing pains.
The real storyline nobody's discussing
Kansas City at No. 8 is genuinely strange. The Chiefs entered 2025 as Super Bowl favorites and are now positioned for a top-10 pick for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era. Injuries have devastated them, and there's real concern about when — not if — Mahomes will be ready for the 2026 season.
Meanwhile, Miami benched Tua Tagovailoa in favor of Quinn Ewers for the final stretch. Cincinnati can't keep Joe Burrow healthy. The Dolphins and Bengals both find themselves in the top 15 despite having franchise quarterbacks on the roster.
The 2026 NFL Draft runs April 23-25 in Pittsburgh. By then, we'll know exactly who's picking where. What we won't know — what we never know — is which team actually makes the right choice.
The Raiders haven't since 2014.