Ten days out from Super Bowl LX, and I still can't quite believe this matchup is real.
The Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots. Again. Eleven years after Malcolm Butler ripped the soul out of Seattle with that goal-line interception. Back then, Tom Brady was collecting rings like stamps and the "Legion of Boom" was the most terrifying secondary in football. Now? Sam Darnold—a guy five teams gave up on—is leading Seattle back to the promised land, while a 23-year-old in his second season is trying to remind New England fans what winning quarterbacks look like.
If you want details on kickoff time, the halftime show, and how to watch, we've got you covered here. But stick around if you want the stuff that actually matters heading into February 8.
The injury situation
Let's address the elephant in the room: Drake Maye's shoulder.
The Patriots quarterback showed up on Wednesday's injury report as a "limited participant" with a right shoulder issue. The speculation started Sunday night when he took an awkward hit on a scramble against Denver—went down hard, grabbed the shoulder, and Patriots fans collectively stopped breathing.
Mike Vrabel isn't exactly hiding anything, but he's not giving much away either. "I think that everybody—including Drake—is not 100% at this part of the year," Vrabel said Tuesday. "We'll do everything that we can to help our players be prepared and get ready for this game."
Translation: he's banged up, but he'll play.
Maye himself sounded unbothered. "Right now I'm feeling good and looking forward to getting out there and preparing for the Seahawks," he told reporters. The kid threw for just 86 yards in a blizzard against Denver and still found a way to win. That's what Brady used to do. Not the comparison anyone wants to hear, but it's getting harder to ignore.
Seattle has its own quarterback concerns. Sam Darnold's oblique injury has lingered since before the Divisional Round—he reportedly didn't throw a football until game day against San Francisco and still torched the 49ers for 124 yards and a touchdown in a 41-6 demolition. Then he put up 346 yards and three touchdowns against the Rams while barely practicing all week.
"It should go down as one of the best performances in playoff history," Mike Macdonald said of Darnold's NFC Championship Game, "considering his lack of practice time."
Beyond the quarterbacks, the Patriots have real concerns at linebacker. Robert Spillane—their leading tackler—left the AFC Championship with an ankle injury and was listed as a non-participant. Harold Landry III missed the Denver game entirely with a knee issue and remains out. If those two can't go, New England's defense loses significant teeth against a Seahawks offense that can hurt you everywhere.
What the oddsmakers are saying
Seattle opened as 3.5-point favorites and has moved to -4.5 as of this writing. The total sits at 45.5, down a full point from the opener.
Here's what gets me: the Patriots were actually favored for about three hours after beating Denver. Then the Seahawks closed out the Rams and the line flipped immediately. Vegas doesn't panic—they know something.
ESPN's Football Power Index gives Seattle a 59.5% win probability. The Seahawks' defense allowed the fewest points per game in the NFL this season (17.1), and their opponent success rate on designed runs was the lowest in the league at just 34%. Running on this team is basically volunteering to lose yardage.
New England counters with the best passing offense by EPA per play. The gap between their passing and rushing effectiveness is the widest in football, which means one thing: they need Maye healthy and throwing.
For what it's worth, underdogs are 5-0 against the spread in the last five Super Bowls and have won four of those games outright. The Patriots haven't been Super Bowl underdogs since 2002—Brady's first full season as a starter. New England won that one 20-17.
The 2015 rematch nobody expected
This is the ninth Super Bowl rematch in NFL history, and New England has been involved in four of them—more than any other franchise. But the ghosts of Super Bowl XLIX will hover over every storyline this week.
Seahawks fans have spent eleven years watching that Butler interception on replay. The decision to throw instead of handing to Marshawn Lynch remains one of the most debated calls in football history. Pete Carroll is gone now. Russell Wilson is gone. The "Legion of Boom" exists only in highlights.
And yet here's Seattle again, built completely differently—a 14-3 team that dominated the NFC despite being picked to finish third in their own division.
"We did not care," Macdonald said when asked about the preseason doubters. Long pause. "It's about us. It's always been about us."
That answer is already legendary in Seattle. Four words that perfectly captured a team tired of being disrespected.
The coaches making history
If Vrabel wins this thing, he becomes the first person in NFL history to win a Super Bowl as both a player and head coach with the same franchise. He won three rings as a linebacker in New England during the Brady-Belichick dynasty. Now he's coaching the franchise he bled for, and he's done it in one season after back-to-back 4-13 campaigns.
"I won't win it. It'll be the players that'll win the game," Vrabel told CBS after the AFC Championship. "I promise you it won't be me."
Classic Vrabel. He deflects everything. But there's a reason the Patriots went 17-3 this season after he showed up and told them, "We just want to be good enough to take advantage of bad football." That was his introductory press conference. That was the whole plan. Don't beat yourselves.
Macdonald, meanwhile, has built what might be the best defense in football in just his second season. The 38-year-old is a former Ravens defensive coordinator who turned a mediocre Seattle unit into something terrifying. He's a Coach of the Year finalist alongside Vrabel.
The quarterback redemption arc
Sam Darnold's journey from "seeing ghosts" against the Patriots in 2019 to facing them in the Super Bowl might be the best story in football this year.
Five teams. Eight seasons. The Jets drafted him third overall in 2018 and gave up on him after three years. Carolina was a disaster. San Francisco used him as a clipboard holder. Minnesota had him for one incredible regular season, then benched him for a rookie after two ugly playoff losses.
Now he's the first quarterback from that loaded 2018 draft class—which includes MVP winners Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson—to win a conference championship as a starter.
"There was a lot that I didn't know back then," Darnold said when asked about the "seeing ghosts" quote. "I'm just going to continue to learn and grow in this great game."
Macdonald put it more bluntly: "He just shut a lot of people up tonight."
Drake Maye's story is different—not a redemption arc, but a coronation. The third overall pick in 2024 has played MVP-caliber football all season. 4,394 passing yards. 31 touchdowns. 72% completion rate. He could become just the fifth quarterback in history to win a Super Bowl in his second NFL season.
His playoff numbers have been less impressive—55.8% completion rate, 15 sacks taken in three games—but his legs have kept New England alive. That rushing touchdown against Denver might have saved their season.
What to watch on February 8
Seattle's defense versus New England's passing attack. That's the game. Everything else is noise.
The Seahawks lead the NFL in points allowed per game. Their defensive line creates pressure at an elite rate—Macdonald's scheme disguises blitzes and keeps quarterbacks guessing. Maye has been sacked 15 times in three playoff games. Seattle will try to make it 20.
If the Patriots can protect Maye long enough to find Jaxon Smith-Njigba coverage mismatches, they have a chance. If they can't, this could get ugly.
On the other side, Darnold has thrown 12 touchdowns against just four interceptions since his disastrous four-pick game against the Rams in Week 11. He's locked in. But New England's secondary—led by Christian Gonzalez, whose fourth-quarter pick sealed the AFC Championship—has been suffocating all postseason.
This is the most improbable Super Bowl matchup ever. Both teams entered the season at 60-1 odds or longer. Both finished 14-3. Both have young coaching staffs that nobody believed in.
Eleven years after Malcolm Butler's interception, Seattle finally gets another shot at revenge.
Whether they take it is anyone's guess. But I know this much: after everything these teams overcame to get here, we're in for a game worth staying up for.