Chicago's Path to the Division Crown
Let's cut through the noise. The Bears are 11-4. The Packers are 9-5-1. The math is simple: Chicago wins the NFC North with one victory in their final two games. They also clinch if Green Bay drops either of their remaining contests against Baltimore or Minnesota.
That's not complicated. What's complicated is what happens if Ben Johnson's team completely collapses.
The Nightmare Nobody's Talking About
Here's the scenario that should keep Bears fans awake at night: Chicago loses to San Francisco on Sunday night. Then they lose to Detroit in Week 18. Meanwhile, Green Bay beats the Ravens and Vikings.
In that universe, the Packers finish 11-5-1 and take the division. The Bears? They'd still be 11-6—and they'd be watching from home. Detroit owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over Chicago, meaning the Lions would leapfrog the Bears for the final wild card spot.
An 11-win team missing the playoffs. It's happened twice before in NFL history. The Bears could become the third.
The Week 16 Comeback That Changed Everything
Credit where it's due: Chicago was dead against Green Bay. Down 16-6 with under two minutes left, most teams pack it in. The Bears scored 10 points in the final 1:59, forced overtime, and then Caleb Williams delivered a 46-yard strike to DJ Moore to end it.
That's six games this season where Chicago has won after trailing inside the final two minutes. Six. The most in franchise history. The most in the NFL this year.
Ben Johnson's team has gone 9-2 since starting 0-2. They don't quit. The question is whether that resilience holds against a San Francisco squad fighting for the No. 1 seed.
What's Actually at Stake This Weekend
The 49ers game isn't just about winning the division. It's about seeding. Chicago currently sits at No. 2 in the NFC, but they could climb to No. 1 if they beat San Francisco and Seattle loses to Carolina.
That means home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. That means a first-round bye. For a franchise that hasn't won a playoff game since 2010, that matters.
Meanwhile, if the Bears lose and the Packers win on Saturday night, suddenly Green Bay is back in the division race. And given how these two teams have played each other this season—splitting the series 1-1 with both games decided by six points or fewer—nobody should assume anything.
The Wild Card Rematch Everyone Wants
Here's the most likely outcome, according to playoff probability models: Bears finish as the No. 2 seed. Packers finish as No. 7. That sets up a Wild Card Weekend rematch at Soldier Field.
Three games between these rivals in one season. The rubber match with everything on the line.
After the way Week 16 ended—Jordan Love leaving with a concussion, Williams throwing that dagger in overtime—the tension would be unbearable. The NFC North hasn't seen drama like this in years.
Chicago controls its destiny. The only question is whether they're ready to claim it.