Morocco are the tournament favorites. They're playing at home. They reached the World Cup semi-finals three years ago. They should be cruising. Instead, they're drawing with Mali and looking uncomfortable. Let's break down why—and what the numbers tell us about today's matches.
Morocco's Problem Is Clear
The Atlas Lions have created 2.3 xG across two matches. That's decent but not dominant. More concerning: their conversion rate is below expected. Hakim Ziyech has attempted 7 shots with an xG of 0.82 but zero goals. Sofiane Boufal is running at defenders but the final ball isn't connecting.
Achraf Hakimi remains their most progressive passer and most threatening attacker from right-back—which tells you everything about where their creativity originates. When your fullback is your best attacker, your forwards have a problem.
Against Zambia, Morocco will have 65-70% possession. That's almost guaranteed. The question is whether they can convert territorial dominance into goals. Zambia have conceded just one goal in two matches—they know how to defend.
Egypt: Salah Dependency Is Real
Mohamed Salah has been involved in both Egypt's goals this tournament. He scored the late winner against Zimbabwe. He assisted against South Africa. Without him, Egypt create 0.4 xG per match. With him involved in the buildup, that jumps to 1.8 xG.
That's not sustainable. What happens when teams figure out to double-mark Salah? Against Angola, expect a low block designed to frustrate Egypt and limit Salah's space.
Angola's defensive numbers are impressive: 0.7 xG conceded per match, third-best in the tournament so far. They press selectively and counter quickly. Egypt need to be patient—something they haven't shown they can do.
The South Africa vs Zimbabwe Factor
This is the match nobody's talking about, but it's fascinating from a data perspective.
South Africa generate chances from set-pieces—37% of their xG comes from dead-ball situations. Zimbabwe are weak aerially, ranking 19th out of 24 teams in aerial duels won. That's a clear mismatch.
But Zimbabwe counter well. Their progressive carries per 90 minutes (28.4) rank in the top half of the tournament. If South Africa commit numbers forward, they'll leave space.
Predictions Based on the Data
Morocco 2-0 Zambia: Morocco will eventually break through. Zambia's low block will hold for 60+ minutes before fatigue sets in. Late goals likely.
Egypt 1-0 Angola: A tight, tense affair. Egypt's quality will tell, but don't expect fireworks. Under 2.5 goals is the play.
South Africa 2-1 Zimbabwe: Set-pieces decide it. South Africa have the quality to convert; Zimbabwe have the heart to stay in it.
Mali 2-0 Comoros: The gap in midfield quality is too large. Mali control this from minute one.
What I'm Watching For
Morocco's pressing intensity in the final third. They've been passive—allowing opponents to settle. If they increase their PPDA (passes allowed per defensive action), they'll create turnovers in dangerous areas.
Egypt's defensive line height. They've been aggressive—averaging 42 meters from their goal. Angola will test that with direct balls. One mistake and the narrative changes.
This tournament has already proven that underdogs can compete. The data shows margins are thin. Today's matches could produce more surprises.