Matthew Stafford threw four touchdowns against Arizona on Sunday. Drake Maye threw one against Miami and looked like a guy who already knew the game was won by halftime. The betting odds shifted back in Stafford's favor. The MVP race, somehow, got more confusing.
This is what happens when the NFL's highest individual honor comes down to two quarterbacks who spent the final month of the season trading momentum like it was a hot potato neither wanted to hold.
The tale of the tape
Stafford's case rests on volume and difficulty. The Rams quarterback finished with 46 touchdown passes and over 4,400 yards. His strength of schedule ranked third-toughest in the league—a 0.555 winning percentage among opponents. He faced playoff-caliber defenses and, more often than not, dismantled them.
But then came Week 17. Monday Night Football against Atlanta. Three interceptions. A loss to a 7-9 team. The kind of performance that makes voters start asking uncomfortable questions about clutch moments and late-season fade.
Maye's case rests on transformation. The Patriots were 4-13 last year. They finished 14-3 this year. That's a 10-win improvement, the largest single-season turnaround in franchise history. Maye led the league in completion percentage (71.7%), passer rating (112.9), and yards per attempt (8.9). He threw 30 touchdowns against just eight interceptions. He added 409 rushing yards.
The catch? New England's schedule was the easiest in the NFL—a 0.383 strength of schedule that means Maye spent most of the year beating up on mediocre competition. His most impressive win came against Baltimore in Week 16, a prime-time comeback that had everyone briefly declaring him the favorite.
Week 17 changed everything
Maye went 19-of-21 for 256 yards and five touchdowns against the Jets. Five. Touchdowns. He had more TD passes than incompletions. It was surgical, clinical, and—let's be honest—against a team that looked like it was already planning its offseason vacation.
Meanwhile, Stafford looked rattled in Atlanta. The Falcons' defense wasn't even particularly good this season. It didn't matter. Stafford forced throws, made poor decisions, and watched the Rams drop their third game in five weeks.
By Tuesday morning, Maye had surged to -400 odds at DraftKings. An 80% implied probability. Stafford, who'd been the clear favorite for weeks, suddenly looked like an afterthought.
Then Week 18 happened
Stafford responded. Four touchdowns against Arizona. Clean pockets, decisive throws, the kind of performance that reminds you why he was the favorite in the first place. The Rams finished 12-5, locked into the fifth seed, and Stafford now sits at -135 to win the award.
Maye handled Miami without drama—191 yards, one touchdown, game management. The Patriots finished as the No. 2 seed in the AFC. But the Week 18 performance wasn't the kind of statement that closes arguments.
So who wins?
The honest answer: nobody knows. MVP voting rewards narrative as much as statistics, and both quarterbacks have compelling stories. Stafford is the grizzled veteran chasing his first MVP at 37, still producing at an elite level despite years of organizational dysfunction in Detroit. Maye is the second-year revelation who turned New England from laughingstock to legitimate contender.
Stafford has better raw numbers. Maye has better efficiency metrics. Stafford faced tougher opponents. Maye delivered a more dramatic team turnaround.
The voters will decide sometime before Super Bowl LX. But here's the thing: both of these quarterbacks deserve to be in this conversation. In a year without a transcendent, obvious choice, we got something more interesting—a genuine debate about what "valuable" actually means.
That's not nothing.