Here's what every soccer analyst won't tell you about Saturday's Premier League slate: most of these games are already decided. The form book doesn't lie. And right now, three clubs are operating at levels that make predicting them embarrassingly easy.
Let me walk you through the seven fixtures and show you exactly what's going to happen.
Arsenal's Christmas curse: here we go again
Arsenal are top at Christmas for the fifth time in their history. They've never converted it into a title. Not once. 2002-03? Second. 2007-08? Third. 2022-23 and 2023-24? Second again.
Against Brighton, this shouldn't matter. The Seagulls have won exactly zero Premier League games in December under Fabian Hurzeler. That's ten matches without a win in the same calendar month. That's historically bad.
But here's the thing about Arsenal: they find ways to make easy games uncomfortable. They needed two own-goals to beat bottom-placed Wolves. They scraped a 1-0 at Everton. The talent is there. The mentality isn't quite.
Brighton can't score. They've blanked in their last two league games. Arsenal's defense has conceded just 10 goals all season. This is a mismatch. But don't expect fireworks.
My take: Arsenal 2-0 Brighton. Comfortable, controlled, and ultimately meaningless for the title race until they prove they can win it.
Chelsea vs. Villa: the game of the weekend, and it's not close
Ten games. Ten wins. Aston Villa have the longest winning streak in Europe's top five leagues right now. Not Real Madrid. Not Bayern. Villa.
Unai Emery has done something remarkable at Villa Park. He's built a team that doesn't panic, doesn't chase, and doesn't waste energy on tactical gimmicks. They're organized, they're clinical, and Morgan Rogers is playing like someone who doesn't know he's overperforming his xG by 4.1.
Chelsea under Enzo Maresca have been... fine. That's the problem. They're a team of moments, not matches. Cole Palmer magic here. A Joao Pedro goal there. But they've won three of their last eight league games. That's mid-table form.
The bigger issue? Chelsea's top scorers this season have just five goals each. That's Pedro Neto and Joao Pedro. After 17 games, only three times in club history have Chelsea's top scorer netted fewer at this stage. The goals aren't coming from anywhere reliable.
Maresca will have Liam Delap and Estevao back, which helps. Palmer is fit for 90 minutes. But Villa have won three of five against Chelsea under Emery – as many as they managed in the previous twenty meetings before he arrived.
My take: Chelsea 1-2 Aston Villa. The streak continues. Villa are legitimate.
Liverpool vs. Wolves: mercy killing at Anfield
Wolves have two points from seventeen games. Two. They've lost ten straight. They're tracking toward becoming the worst team in Premier League history.
Derby County finished 2007-08 with 11 points. Wolves are on pace for 5. This isn't a team struggling. This is a team that's already dead.
Liverpool have won their last eight home league games against Wolves. The last Molineux win at Anfield was December 2010. Roy Hodgson was in charge. That's how long ago we're talking.
This match carries emotional weight beyond the standings. It's the first Liverpool-Wolves game since Diogo Jota's passing in July. Both fanbases loved him. His sons will be mascots. It's going to be a difficult afternoon for everyone.
On the pitch, though? Hugo Ekitike has eight goals in sixteen appearances and looks like the real deal. Liverpool are rested, organized, and facing a team with zero confidence.
My take: Liverpool 4-0 Wolves. Maybe 5-0. This won't be close.
Forest vs. City: Pep's machine is rolling again
Manchester City have won seven straight. Four clean sheets in their last five. They beat Real Madrid at the Bernabeu and only conceded once. The wobble from last season is over. Pep's figured it out again.
Nottingham Forest are sliding. Lost two of their last three, failed to score in three of their last five. Last season's seventh-place finish was an anomaly. This season's 17th-place reality is returning.
The City Ground will be loud. Forest will defend deep. None of it will matter. City control possession at levels that suffocate opposition. Forest's best hope is catching them on the counter, but City have rediscovered how to protect leads.
My take: Forest 0-2 City. Clean, professional, inevitable.
The relegation watches
Burnley vs. Everton: Burnley are 19th with 11 points. Everton are 10th but their away form is dire. This is about which team actually wants to fight. Burnley's spirit is eroding fast. Expect a scrappy 1-1 that helps nobody.
West Ham vs. Fulham: West Ham have collapsed. 13 points, 35 goals conceded, and a fanbase that's already asking questions about January spending. Fulham are everything West Ham hoped to be: organized, competitive, punching above their weight. Fulham take this 2-1, and the pressure on West Ham becomes unbearable.
Brentford vs. Bournemouth: Brentford finally won a December game after four tries. Bournemouth have drawn seven of seventeen – the most in the league. Both teams score, neither keeps clean sheets. This is a 2-2 written in the stars.
What Saturday actually means
The title race is a three-horse affair: Arsenal, City, Villa. That's it. Chelsea are pretenders until they prove otherwise. Liverpool need to string together wins without Mo Salah (who's at AFCON) and Alexander Isak (broken leg).
Saturday won't decide anything permanently. But it'll clarify who has the mentality to sustain pressure through the winter. Form says Villa. Experience says City. Position says Arsenal.
If I'm betting on who cracks first? Arsenal. They always do in December.
