When was the last time neither the Kansas City Chiefs nor the Baltimore Ravens made the playoffs?
Try 2020. That's how dominant these two franchises have been. Patrick Mahomes made seven consecutive AFC Championship Games. Lamar Jackson won two MVP awards. Between them, the Chiefs and Ravens felt like permanent fixtures in the conference's bracket.
Not anymore.
Kansas City finished 6-11, ending a streak of 10 consecutive playoff appearances—the second-longest postseason run in NFL history. Baltimore went 8-9, missing the playoffs after three straight trips. For the first time in half a decade, the AFC will be decided without either team in the mix.
This isn't a blip. This is a generational shift.
The new reality
The Chiefs' collapse was stunning. After appearing in four Super Bowls in five years—winning three—Kansas City cratered. Mahomes was knocked out of the season finale with a knee injury. Travis Kelce's future is uncertain. The dynasty that seemed invincible evaporated in a single season.
Gardner Minshew, in relief of Mahomes, threw an interception that sealed a 14-12 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders. The Chiefs were officially eliminated when wins by the Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Houston Texans locked them out of the postseason entirely.
In Baltimore, Lamar Jackson watched Tyler Loop—yes, that Tyler Loop—miss a field goal in the final seconds of a 26-24 loss to Pittsburgh. That miss gave the Steelers the AFC North and sent the Ravens home. Jackson declined to discuss his future with the organization afterward.
The old guard is gone. The new bracket tells a very different story.
Who's actually in this thing
Fourteen teams remain. Here's how they stack up:
AFC bracket
- No. 1 Denver Broncos (14-3) — bye
- No. 2 New England Patriots (14-3) vs. No. 7 Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)
- No. 3 Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4) vs. No. 6 Buffalo Bills (12-5)
- No. 4 Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) vs. No. 5 Houston Texans (12-5)
NFC bracket
- No. 1 Seattle Seahawks (14-3) — bye
- No. 2 Chicago Bears (11-6) vs. No. 7 Green Bay Packers (10-7)
- No. 3 Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) vs. No. 6 San Francisco 49ers (10-7)
- No. 4 Carolina Panthers (8-9) vs. No. 5 Los Angeles Rams (12-5)
Six of these teams—Seattle, San Francisco, Carolina, Chicago, New England, and Jacksonville—missed the playoffs last year. Five of those franchises won at least 11 fewer games in 2024 than they did this season. The turnover is extraordinary.
The numbers that matter
Some data points worth noting as Wild Card Weekend approaches:
The Denver Broncos finished 11-2 in one-score games. That's not luck—that's execution under pressure. Their defense recorded 68 sacks, the most in the NFL and four short of the league's single-season record.
The New England Patriots are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2019, led by second-year quarterback Drake Maye. New England went on an 11-game winning streak midseason, the longest active streak in the league.
The Houston Texans won their final nine games, tying a franchise record. Their defense—anchored by first-team All-Pro candidates at multiple positions—allowed fewer than 200 passing yards in eight of those contests.
The Los Angeles Rams lead the NFL in scoring at 30.5 points per game. Matthew Stafford tops the league in passing yards (4,707), passing touchdowns (46), and touchdown-to-interception ratio (5.8). He's 40 years old and playing the best football of his life.
The Seattle Seahawks beat the San Francisco 49ers 13-3 in Week 18 to clinch the NFC's top seed. That result ended San Francisco's hopes of hosting home games all the way to the Super Bowl at their own stadium.
The schedule
Wild Card Weekend runs January 10-12:
Saturday, January 10
- 4:30 p.m. ET — Rams at Panthers (FOX)
- 8:00 p.m. ET — Packers at Bears (Prime Video)
Sunday, January 11
- 1:00 p.m. ET — Bills at Jaguars (CBS)
- 4:30 p.m. ET — 49ers at Eagles (FOX)
- 8:00 p.m. ET — Chargers at Patriots (NBC)
Monday, January 12
- 8:00 p.m. ET — Texans at Steelers (ESPN/ABC)
Divisional Round games follow January 17-18. Conference Championships are set for January 25. Super Bowl LX takes place February 8 at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California.
What it all means
The Chiefs' absence creates a vacuum in the AFC. For five years, every contender built its playoff strategy around one question: can we beat Kansas City? Now that question is obsolete. The Broncos are the new favorites, but they haven't played a playoff game since 2015. The Patriots are back, but Maye is a postseason rookie. The Bills have Josh Allen, but he's 0-4 in AFC Championship Games.
The NFC feels wide open, too. The Seahawks own the No. 1 seed, but Seattle's offense ranked 18th in scoring. The Eagles are the defending champions, but they rested starters in Week 18 and looked shaky for stretches of the season. The Rams have Stafford, but their defense allowed 30+ points in four of their final eight games.
There is no clear favorite. There is no obvious path. For the first time in years, the NFL playoffs feel genuinely unpredictable.
That's what happens when the old order falls apart.