The Warriors are 6.5-point favorites at home against the Hornets tonight. That's reasonable. What's less reasonable is pretending this Golden State team is the same franchise that won four championships. They're not. They're something more interesting: a transitional roster trying to stay relevant while the league moves on without them.
And the data suggests they're actually pulling it off.
Jimmy Butler is quietly having his best shooting season in years
The trade that brought Butler to San Francisco flew under the radar because of the Klay Thompson exit drama. But the numbers don't lie: Butler is averaging 20.1 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 4.9 assists while shooting efficiently enough to space the floor for Curry's gravity.
At 35, Butler was supposed to be declining. Instead, he's found the perfect role — a secondary creator who doesn't need the ball to impact winning. His defensive presence allows Draymond Green to roam more freely, and the chemistry with Curry has been better than anyone anticipated.
Tonight against Charlotte's porous defense (allowing 48% from the field to opponents), Butler should feast in the mid-range.
The Curry renaissance by the numbers
Stephen Curry is leading the league in three-pointers made per game at 4.6. At 37 years old. Read that again.
His 28.1 points per game ranks him 10th in the NBA, and he's doing it while being the defensive focus of every single game plan. The supporting cast has improved enough that teams can't just trap him into oblivion anymore.
| Curry 2025-26 | Numbers | League rank |
|---|---|---|
| PPG | 28.1 | 10th |
| 3PM/G | 4.6 | 1st |
| 3P% | 38.8% | Top 15 |
| Assists | 4.9 | Top 30 |
The projection models have the Warriors winning tonight with 62.5% confidence. I'd push that closer to 70% given home court and Charlotte's road struggles.
Charlotte's rookie revelation shouldn't be ignored
Kon Knueppel isn't getting enough national attention. The Hornets' first-round pick is averaging 19.1 points per game while shooting 37.3% from three — sixth-best in the league among qualified players.
LaMelo Ball (20.4 PPG, 7.8 APG) remains the engine, but Knueppel gives Charlotte something they've desperately needed: a reliable secondary scorer who can create his own shot. He dropped 30 the other night like it was nothing.
The problem is the rest of the roster. Miles Bridges (19.7 PPG) is fine. Moussa Diabate's rebounding (8.4 RPG, 19th in the league) helps. But Charlotte's defense allows opponents to shoot 48.0% from the field, and that's a death sentence against the Warriors' motion offense.
The matchup that matters
Golden State's last ten games: 6-3, scoring 118.4 points per game while holding opponents to 113. That's a +5.4 net rating during the stretch — playoff caliber stuff.
Charlotte's last ten: 3-6, despite scoring 119.7 per game. They're losing because they can't stop anyone, not because they can't generate offense.
The Hornets beat the Lakers 135-117 on Thursday behind Ball's 30-point, 11-assist performance. They have firepower. But the Warriors' defensive rating at home (top-8 in the league) is a different animal than what LA brought.
Why I'm watching De'Anthony Melton tonight
Here's a data point you won't see on the broadcast: Melton has averaged 17.4 points per game at Chase Center over his last five home appearances, 4.3 points higher than his season average. He shot 64.3% in his last outing.
When Melton plays well, the Warriors' bench unit doesn't hemorrhage points. That second-unit stability is what separates Golden State's good nights from their great ones.
Tipoff is 8:30 PM ET from Chase Center. Expect a Warriors win somewhere in the 117-112 range, with Curry splashing at least four threes and Butler controlling the pace in crunch time.
The Hornets are fun. They're just not good enough yet to beat competent teams on the road. Tonight should confirm that.