The prop market is where the sharp money plays. And tonight, three names keep popping up across my screens.
Kel'el Ware. Remember that name. The Miami Heat's second-year center has been on an absolute tear—12.3 points and 10.6 rebounds per game, with a quietly absurd 47.3% from three on 91 attempts this season. That's not a typo. A seven-footer draining threes at that clip.
"We're open to the possibilities with Kel'el," Erik Spoelstra told the Miami Herald this week. Translation: they've found something special here, and they're going to ride it.
Tonight against Chicago, his rebounds prop is the play. The Bulls struggle to contest boards, and Ware has grabbed 12 or more in seven of his last eleven games. His over is priced too low.
Norman Powell keeps printing money
Powell's points prop continues to be free real estate for anyone paying attention. The Clippers' summer castoff has morphed into Miami's leading scorer, and he's done it with remarkable consistency. Six straight games over 20 points. Over 43% from deep on the season. The Bulls won't slow him down—they haven't slowed anyone down lately.
The books are catching on, but the line still hasn't adjusted enough. Take the over.
Davion Mitchell: the assist specialist
Here's one the casual bettors miss. Mitchell has quietly become one of the league's elite playmakers, ranking in the top 12 for assist-to-turnover ratio. Spoelstra praised his "stability" at the point, and the numbers back it up: 33 assists in his first four games was the most by a Heat player to start a season in nearly three decades.
He's averaging 7.5 dimes per game. Against a Bulls defense that doesn't communicate well off screens, Mitchell should feast. His assist prop is my favorite under-the-radar pick tonight.
The books set these lines expecting average performances. Tonight's matchup isn't average—it's Miami's firepower against Chicago's porous defense. Act accordingly.